Donald Trump enjoyed a huge surge in polls on Thursday. A modern list of polls showed him leading in almost all swing states. This comes as the race enters its final stages less than a month before voters go to the polls.
Emerson surveyed Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, showing the former president represented in all but two states.
🇺🇲 Emerson Swing States Poll
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+2)
🟦 Harris: 47%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 49% (+1)
🟦 Harris: 48%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 49% (=)
🟥 Trump: 49%
—…— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 10, 2024
Trump is tied in Wisconsin, which could be good news for him since polls tend to overstate Democrats in that state. In 2022, Senator Ron Johnson beat the average by 2.5 percentage points. There, too, Trump’s vote share was underestimated in surveys in both 2016 and 2020.
Still, the most essential finding here remains the trend in Pennsylvania. Four of the last five Surveys In “The Keystone State,” Trump is in charge, putting him in a position to take the state most likely to decide the choice. For his part, the former president has stormed the state and held several rallies there in recent days. On Wednesday he visited both Scranton and Reading. No doubt he will be back many more times before the polls close.
All of this lines up with a recent report from Mark Halperin, who was the first to directly report that Joe Biden is dropping out of the presidential race. He reported that Kamala Harris’ internal polls are dismal and that Democrats are currently bullish that Trump will win.
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Halperin chided his pro-Harris viewers, saying, “For you Harris people here who complain about us talking about problems in the Harris campaign, feel free to bury your heads in the sand. If you want to watch, welcome to watch MSNBC in prime time and hear how great the Harris campaign is doing.”
“But if you want to understand what is actually happening, we are here to tell you. I just saw a new private poll today, it’s a very robust private poll, she says.” in substantial trouble.”
That could change, of course, but for now there is a palpable panic from the Harris campaign about its positioning. That’s probably why she conducted a series of interviews Tuesday with genial faces like Howard Stern and Stephen Colbert that turned out to be disastrous.
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The vice president and her supervisors sense the danger. Otherwise there would have been no other reason for them to take the bubble wrap from Harris. However, that doesn’t seem to be worth it, and the race remains essentially undecided (that is, within the margin of error in all of these polls). Conventional wisdom would say this is good for Trump.
Nevertheless, Republicans cannot expect the same electoral errors as four and eight years ago. Bank elections through early voting remain a priority, but for now the former president appears well placed. He is certainly in a better position than he was in his last elections.
