There is a school of thought that says the Republican Party is all but locked up control The year 2025 is the Senate election, but such celebration may be a little premature. Take a look at the Senate race in Nebraska, where two-term Republican Deb Fischer is in a much closer than expected contest with independent Dan Osborn.
In his comprehensive review of the current state of Senate control, RedState’s Bonchie made the following observation about what’s happening in the Plains State:
Surprisingly, the danger for Republicans now lies in Nebraska. Dan Osborn, a Marine veteran and union leader, is running as an independent and has raised a lot of outside money. That has put incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer on the defensive, with some recent polls showing Osborn with a lead.
One of those polls that Bonchie was referring to was a recent New York Times/Siena College poll Opinion poll Osborn is a whopping eleven points ahead of Fischer. Of the 663 respondents, 49 percent said they would vote for Osborn, 38 percent chose Fischer, and the remaining 13 percent fell into the “don’t know/rejected” category. Fischer’s numbers are particularly surprising considering that 78 percent of self-identified Republicans in deep-red Nebraska say they support Donald Trump, who supported Fischer, not to mention those Republicans hold a 2:1 advantage in voter registration in the state.
So what’s going on here? A GOP strategist thinks It’s simply because 2024 is an “anti-incumbency year”:
A Republican strategist who is a veteran of the Senate game adds: “If Deb Fischer is in trouble, then [Senators] Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester and Bob Casey join in for a one-year challenge to the incumbent.”
An anti-incumbency 2024 certainly favors Republicans. Osborn seems to echo this sentiment, attacking Fischer for being an establishment political player with deep roots in DC. Here’s a little about Osborn’s background and messaging strategy:
Osborn led the strike Omaha’s Kellogg factory in 2021 and gained some national attention in the process. But the 49-year-old is a political newcomer. And he has embraced a populist message, promising to run the state as an independent who will work for Nebraskans while portraying his opponent as an establishment politician controlled by corporate interests.
It certainly sounds like Osborn’s campaign is trying to embrace more conservative messaging to attract those voters who prefer R. Per the candidate himself: “Our message of standing up for small businesses, family farmers and working families resonates because Nebraskans want a senator who will listen to them, who will advocate for them and who will represent them as a strong voice in the Senate.”
That doesn’t sound like much of a difference from Fischer, a rancher who is a advocate for agricultural subsidies and internet access in rural areas. Fischer, in turn, portrays Osborn as a “Democrat in disguise.” It is critical to note that there is no Democrat in the race, as Democrats likely ignored the state and thought Fischer was a candidate for re-election since she received nearly 58 percent of the vote in 2018 received.
Although he’s not technically running as a Democrat, the wallets of wealthy Democratic donors certainly were open for Osborn, which raises the question of whether he would switch allegiances if elected. Fischer’s campaign is ask me the same:
“Dan Osborn claims to be an independent, but he is funded by the same billionaire Democrats who support Kamala Harris, supports mass amnesty and Social Security for illegal immigrants, and was caught on tape saying he loves Bernie Sanders,” it says said in a statement from the Fischer campaign to CBS News. “If Nebraskans learn that Dan Osborn is a liberal Democrat in disguise, they will not stand for it.”
Republicans appear surprised by the situation in Nebraska and are beginning to pour resources into keeping Fischer in her seat.
The outcome of the Senate election in Nebraska is unlikely to determine control of the U.S. Senate, especially if the anti-incumbent theory is true, as it would favor Republicans in Senate elections in Ohio, Montana, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Add a pickup truck in West Virginia, and the Republicans have a good chance. But of course nothing has been decided by November 5th.
