LOS ANGELES (AP) — California’s reputation as a hothouse of progressive politics will be tested in a series of U.S. House contests that are expected to once again determine which party controls the chamber next year.
Despite being a liberal protectorate, both parties view races in the country’s most populous state as crucial battlegrounds, pumping millions of dollars into campaigns stretching from the beaches of San Diego and Orange County to the almond groves and vineyards of the Central Valley extend farm belt.
Two years ago, the state played a crucial role in securing the Republican gavel. Now just a handful of votes separate the rival parties in the House, with 220 Republicans, 212 Democrats and three vacant seats.
California has 52 seats in the House of Representatives – more than any other state – and 10 are considered in play. About half of these are considered toss-ups. Democrats dominate California, hold every statewide office and outnumber registered Republicans nationwide by nearly 2 to 1. But Republicans maintain their strength, securing four House seats in 2020.
The most competitive contests are concentrated in Republican-controlled districts that were elected by Joe Biden in 2020. In total, Republicans hold just 12 seats in the state House of Representatives.
At least on paper, Democrats have more than enough registered voters to capture a number of Republican-controlled districts. The question remains, as in the past: will they vote?
Democrats are likely to benefit from increased voter turnout in a presidential election year, with Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California U.S. senator and attorney general, leading the way. But how that will play out in closely divided swing districts is less clear.
Democrats are warning about a possible return of former President Donald Trump to Washington, threats to abortion rights and gun violence. The Republicans blame the Democrats for crime, a porous southern border, high taxes and inflation that is straining household budgets.
Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking Democrat in the House who lives in Redlands, east of Los Angeles, has predicted that the crucial battle for the chamber “will run through California.”
The fighter pilot and the never-ending battle
Democrats keep championing Rep. Mike Garcia.
The last Republican congressman to anchor heavily Democratic Los Angeles County, Garcia, a former Marine pilot who flew more than 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom, has shown a surprising ability to improve the odds in a district with an 11-point to surpass the Democrats’ lead. He is being challenged by Democrat George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff.
The once conservative 27th District runs north of Los Angeles through suburbs and high desert. Garcia, a supporter of former President Donald Trump with a conservative voting record, was first elected running against California’s liberal-leaning government. “I don’t want my country to become what my state has become,” he said at the time.
Whitesides, who is also a former CEO of Virgin Galactic, says he would exploit his business experience to solve problems. He has highlighted Garcia’s opposition to abortion rights and called him an extremist.
Garcia released a statement to clarify his position on the issue: “I oppose a statewide abortion ban – California’s abortion law remains in place – and I support exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.”
National Republicans have run ads portraying the Whitesides as pliable on crime. Garcia, like other GOP candidates, has attacked his rival and other Democrats over inflation and taxes.
Garcia’s military service is an asset in a county that is home to the defense industry and popular with veterans, Los Angeles police officers and firefighters. As the son of a Mexican immigrant, his Hispanic last name is also an advantage in a district with a gigantic Latino population.
Democrats want to hold onto a coastal district with GOP roots
Orange County was once considered holy ground for conservatives, where white suburban homeowners gave Republicans margins of victory year after year. It is considered the cornerstone of the Reagan Revolution. But the county, which lies southeast of Los Angeles, like much of the state, has become more demographically diverse and Democratic over time.
The 47th District seat, which includes Huntington Beach and other notable surfing spots, is held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a progressive favorite who narrowly defeated former Republican lawmaker Scott Baugh in 2022. Porter, known for harassing CEOs during hearings on Capitol Hill, resigned to run for U.S. Senate but lost in the primary. Baugh is running for the seat again, this time against Democratic Rep. Dave Min.
National Republicans have called the seat their top target.
Given the risks in the closely divided district, the competition was particularly fierce. Min ads call Baugh a “MAGA extremist” who would endanger abortion rights. Baugh says Min’s “extremely liberal views” are not in keeping with the district.
Democrats are once again targeting a longtime Republican east of LA
Representative Ken Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation, first elected in 1992. Two years ago he beat Democrat and former federal prosecutor Will Rollins by about five percentage points, and Rollins is back to try again.
The 41st District is roughly evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. The race is a priority for both parties: Porter and former U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer were among the recognized Democrats who raised funds for Rollins.
National Republicans have called Rollins an “extreme liberal.” Calvert brings the benefits of his incumbency, but his conservative reputation and support for Trump could be a challenge in a district that is home to many relocated Los Angeles residents and in the city of Palm Springs, which has a gigantic concentration of LGBTQ+ voters there are at the expense. Rollins is gay.
Rollins says it’s time for up-to-date leadership and has called Calvert an extremist whose views don’t align with the district.
Farm Belt Mystery: Republicans dominate Democratic turf
Based on the numbers, the Central Valley’s 22nd District is likely to be a Democratic stronghold. The party has a 14-point lead over Republicans in registration. But Republican Rep. David Valadao still has control of the seat.
He held the district from 2013 to January 2019, losing the seat for one term and then winning it back in 2020 in a rematch with Democrat TJ Cox. Democrat Rudy Salas is trying to win the seat this year after losing to Valadao in 2022.
In a region sometimes called “America’s salad bowl” because of its huge agricultural production, Valadao emphasized his efforts to secure more water for farmers and his willingness to work across the aisle while using Salas as a tax – and spending Democrats represented. “David has ignored partisan arguments and demonstrated his commitment to local priorities,” a Valadao campaign fundraiser said.
Salas, considered a moderate, has portrayed Valadao as a Trump supporter posing as a centrist. He will fight in Congress for lower drug prices, expanded health care and spotless drinking water, which remains a chronic problem in some rural communities.
After losing by 564 votes, a Central Valley Democrat gets a rematch
In the 13th District, Republican Rep. John Duarte faces Adam Gray, the Democrat he defeated two years ago by 564 votes, one of the narrowest margins in the country. Given his narrow victory, Duarte is often considered one of the weakest Republicans in the House of Representatives.
Another factor is the 13th party’s Democratic lead, which is about 11 points over registered Republicans. Similar to other Central Valley counties, there is also a gigantic Latino population, but the most likely voters statewide are white, older and wealthier homeowners. Working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent in voting.
Both candidates emphasized their bipartisan credibility.
Duarte, a businessman and major wine and almond grower, says his priorities include curbing inflation and crime and ensuring adequate water supplies for farmers, a perennial issue in the valley.
Gray, a former lawmaker, has criticized the state’s water management system and puts water and agriculture at the top of his list of issues. He also says he would like to see improvements in infrastructure, renewable energy and education.
Another tough fight in a district created to empower Asian Americans
Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant, is seeking a third term in the 45th District, which was specifically chosen to give Asian Americans a stronger voice on Capitol Hill.
The largest demographic in the district, anchored in Orange County, is Asian Americans, which includes the largest Vietnamese community in the country. Democrats have a 4-point lead in registration.
Steel first won the seat in 2020 and then again in 2022 with a 5-point victory. This year she meets lawyer and workers’ rights advocate Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees.
Steel has spoken out strongly against tax increases and said she stands firmly with Israel in the war with Hamas. “As our greatest ally in the Middle East, the United States must always stand with Israel,” she said in a recent email. She has advocated for more police funding and has highlighted her efforts against domestic violence and sexual abuse.
Tran has warned of Republican threats to abortion rights. Steel opposes abortion with exceptions in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the pregnant woman, but does not go so far as to support a federal ban. Tran also says that a return of Trump to the White House would endanger democracy.
The race is being watched nationally for clues about the preferences of Asian American voters.
