The prevailing thought in the current presidential campaign is that things couldn’t be much closer. I thought so myself based on the data. But I also look at trends – and like everyone else, I have a gut feeling about all of this. Granted, that gut feeling is worth every penny you paid for it, but I have to say that my gut feeling, just like the rest of me, has been watching the presidential election since 1976, just like many men have been watching sports since 1976, so mine has Gut feeling saw some surprises.
A Fox News story published on Friday claims the current race is a “dead heat.” Is it?
A up-to-date Wall Street Journal poll found that there is barely a gap between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in seven battleground states, prompting one Democratic pollster to say the 2024 election “really can’t be any closer.” could”.
The survey of 600 registered voters in each state, conducted September 28 to October 28. 8 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points showed Trump and Harris tied in a head-to-head contest in North Carolina and Wisconsin.
According to the poll, Harris leads Trump 48-46% in Arizona and Georgia and 49-47% in Michigan. In Nevada, Trump has his largest swing state lead of 49% to 43%, while he leads Harris in Pennsylvania 47% to 46%, the poll also showed.
“It really couldn’t be any closer,” Democrat Michael Bocian, one of the pollsters who worked on the survey, told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s an even, close, close race.”
Remember: If I were a Democrat and tried to whistle past the Harris/Walz graveyard, this is exactly what I would say.
But that’s just a survey. It is a snapshot taken of a moving target. The RealClearPolitics averageswhich I like to watch not only because of the survey averages but also because of the trends, have been painting a different picture since Friday:
- Arizona: Trump +0.5
- Nevada: Trump +0.2
- Wisconsin: Harris +0.3
- Michigan: Trump +0.9
- Pennsylvania: Trump +0.4
- North Carolina: Trump +0.5
- Georgia: Trump +0.5
Granted, these averages are closer than Republicans are comfortable with, but if things really are that close, why are Democrats pulling out their large guns – at least the biggest ones they have – to try to fix Kamala Harris’ dwindling Saving assets?
See related: Obama gets sincere about Kamala’s large problem
Shows how desperate the Democrats are
That’s what my gut feeling tells me: things aren’t all that close. I’d much rather believe that the Trump/Vance team will win a 1984-style 49-state landslide, but honestly that’s not going to happen. But if I were to examine signs and omens – or a plate of chicken guts – I’d say it looks like a Trump/Vance victory. The dynamics are clearly moving in this direction. Every Kamala Harris appearance has been a disaster. Every Tim Walz performance was just as bad or worse.
See related: Kamala’s Univision town hall was a complete disaster
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is not only holding Trump’s trademark massive rallies, but it is also putting forward concrete policy proposals. You can agree with them or disagree as you like, but Trump flaunts them while Harris can only mutter vague statements about “making the rich pay their fair share.”
See related: Trump introduces policies to boost economy and a surprising personal remark at the Detroit Economic Club
It’s not over yet. But we are past what Winston Churchill famously described as “the end of the beginning.” We’re on the road for 25 days; It is now the beginning of the end. And for Republicans tracking the presidential race, it’s starting to look like Christmas. But don’t be complacent. Don’t take anything for granted. Get out there and vote. If your state has mail-in voting, fill out your ballot and drop it in a mailbox – don’t trust the postal service. If your state has early voting, go vote now. If your state has a established system, go to the polls on November 5th. If your neighbors need a ride to the polling place, give them one (unless they’re Democrats – then let them find their way. That’s a tough call.) Get out there and get it done, because if we talk about something Kamala know Harris, it’s this: She should never be President of the United States.
