There is something of a truism in American elections that in states that allow early voting, Democrats are more likely to vote early, while Republicans are more likely to vote on conventional Election Day. These options vary from state to state and we can argue about whether this is good practice or not, but we can take that up at another time.
By the way, Alaska does allow early voting, but the early voting station is 30 miles away and in the busy city of Wasilla, so we’ll stop by; We will be voting on November 5th at our miniature local community center just five miles away. But back to this truism: This year, early voting appears to be down compared to 2020. Is this bad for the Democrats? More precisely – Is it good for Republicans?
The dramatic augment in early voting has led many to believe that the election may actually take place days or weeks before Election Day. The data so far shows that won’t be true – and the numbers aren’t exactly reassuring for Democrats.
Early voting is far from what some people value: 4.2 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to John Couvillon, a Republican political strategist who provides daily updates on early voting and absentee voting.
That sounds like a lot, but it’s a miniature thing compared to the 158.6 million votes that were ultimately cast in 2020.
More importantly, it’s significantly less than this point in 2020: Early voting is down 45%, Couvillon’s numbers show.
This could be a disaster for Democrats. The most obvious conclusion is that voter enthusiasm among Democratic voters is waning; With early voting, this lack of appropriate zeal could eventually lead to procrastination: “Oh, I’ll vote tomorrow. Perhaps. Or maybe next week.” These are not people a politician wants to depend on for election, but for now that might be exactly what they get.
There are now a whole bunch of Republicans who would crawl on their stomachs through broken glass to vote for Trump, and those people may start banking their votes.
There’s also an ominous sign from Virginia that Republicans have learned to play the early voting game. While overall early voting numbers were down compared to 2020, many more votes were cast in the most Republican congressional districts than in the unthreatening Democratic seats.
Comparing deeply Democratic, college-educated Northern Virginia with the deeply Republican, white, non-college-educated areas of rural Virginia paints an even clearer picture.
The inner D.C. suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria each gave Biden more than 80% of the vote, but the number of early votes in each is less than half what it was at the same time four years ago.
That’s not the case in Trump’s best districts. It counted 10 rural counties in the far western part of the state where 80% or more of respondents lived in 2020. They are also 90% or more white and no more than 24% have a four-year college degree.
I would like to note here that “not having a college degree” is not the same as “not intelligent.” I have an MBA myself, but one of the smartest people I ever knew was my father, who only had a high school education and a lot of informal learning; In fact, all of my siblings only attended high school and we’re all a pretty shrewd bunch.
But in Virginia, it looks like Republicans are going to capture those votes. The RealClearPolitics Virginia average puts Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump. with a lead of 6.4 points; But if there’s a breakout and Trump takes Virginia on Election Day, then we might as well all go to bed early, because baby, he won. And this trend could well extend beyond Virginia.
See related: Early swing state voting data brings good news for Trump, GOP
The North Carolina State Board of Elections is offering more flexibility to voters affected by Hurricane Helene
Donald Trump has made urging people to vote early part of his routine speech. Does it pay off? Has this pattern changed and are Republicans more likely to retain their votes?
As with so many other things, November 5th will tell the story.
