The battle for the Senate majority has entered its final month as Republicans fight to end their four-year term in the minority.
To do just that, the GOP only needs to win one of two must-win races in red states — Montana and Ohio — barring a surprise defeat elsewhere. Accordingly Decision Office Headquarters and The Hill, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking back the upper chamber.
The bigger question is whether Republicans can strike gold beyond these two contests and extend their success across the battleground map.
Outside of West Virginia, which both parties admit will be in the red, here are the top five seats likely to fall into Republican hands:
Montana
Senator Jon Tester (D) is in the fight of his political life and is looking ahead to what is sure to be the toughest re-election campaign of his career.
Tim Sheehy, one of the Republicans’ top recruits this year, has built a consistent lead in the polls over the three-term Democratic incumbent. A survey by (*5*)The New York Times and Siena College Results released last week showed Sheehy with an 8-point lead over Tester – a lead that has remained relatively consistent since August.
That lead hasn’t stopped Democrats we continue to pay out money to the state, with both sides set to spend nearly $30 million in the coming weeks. Republicans have made clear they will continue to spend in Montana regardless of whether Democratic groups continue to pour money into it – which GOP activists hope will continue to be the case.
Despite their confidence in Tester, Democrats admit the outlook is bleak as he faces the daunting task of winning over enough supporters of former President Trump to get him over the finish line. According to the Times/Siena poll, Trump leads Vice President Harris by 17 percentage points in Montana.
“It will be a political miracle if he wins,” said John LaBombard, a former top aide to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and a Democratic strategist at ROKK Solutions. “But I think Jon Tester is capable of political miracles.”
Ohio
The dispute between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Republican Bernie Moreno is showing signs of intensifying as Democrats struggle to limit the damage in November.
Brown maintained a consistent lead throughout the summer, buoyed by an ad bonanza in an attempt to define Moreno. But Republican forces have responded over the past month, with Moreno running ads and groups led by top aides of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), raising 80 million between Labor Day and Election Day want to spend US dollars.
Now Brown is trying to stop Moreno in the home stretch. Democrats are trying to further hurt Moreno on abortion after he recently told supporters it was “a little crazy” for suburban women to base their vote on the issue.
Helping the incumbent Democrat is the financial muscle he needs to spread that word; Brown announced that he had raised more than $30 million in the third quarter.
However, recent polls suggest that this race is a case of pure bad decisions. According to a current internal survey At the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the race is deadlocked at 46 percent — marking a 2-point swing in Moreno’s favor in about three weeks.
A recent one Washington Post poll also showed Brown leading Harris by one percentage point, while Trump leads Harris by 7 points in the once-stellar swing state.
“Simply by praying that Trump wins by double digits. His path to victory is not about him,” a national GOP operative said of Moreno’s path to victory.
The agent added that Moreno’s closing message was straightforward. “Put on your jersey. Trump needs me in the US Senate.”
Wisconsin
Perhaps no state has raised the eyebrows of political observers more in recent weeks than Wisconsin, where Republican Eric Hovde is making a slow bid to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and secure a seat in blue wall territory.
Alarm bells have been ringing in Democratic circles in recent weeks as Baldwin’s sizable lead throughout the campaign has become a narrow lead over Hovde, a wealthy businessman who has been able to aid finance his campaign in recent weeks.
The Cook Political Report last week shifted the race from “lean Democrat” to “rolled up.”
But after close race after close race in Wisconsin over the past eight years, Democrats argue the race was always going to end here.
“Wisconsin has Wisconsin,” a Democratic activist in the state told The Hill, saying it was a two-point race and independents and men without a college education “remembered they were Republicans and went home.” came” to join the GOP. “It’s not shocking.”
“The question is: Can Tammy retain the Republican-leaning voters she has won over the years, and what does the money look like?” If Hovde and the NRSC spend money at the clip they are doing, they will be in the last spend more money every month than Tammy Baldwin, and that’s a scary reality.”
Republicans say the gap has closed in part because of Baldwin’s inability to differentiate himself from the Democratic brand writ vast; One GOP operative called her a “generic” Democrat. They also believe in some attacks, including against their decision do not disclose Her partner’s assets and clients are stuck.
“It’s a coin toss,” said a Republican strategist involved in Senate races.
Michigan
At first glance, Republicans should have as good a chance in Michigan as in any other state on the map that isn’t part of Montana or Ohio.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) has been widely touted as the GOP’s top recruit this cycle, particularly because of an open seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D). The Wolverine State is also one of the prominent swing states on the map, giving Republicans a clear lead over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.).
However, Michigan remains adamant about the party when it comes to Senate races. No Republican has won a seat there since 1994. But that doesn’t dampen their hopes there as the GOP continues to pour money into the race and flood the airwaves.
Last week alone, Rogers and the GOP outsiders spent $7 million, compared to $5.3 million for the Democrats in between private concerns from Slotkin that Harris’ standing in the state was not sturdy enough.
The huge question right now is whether Rogers can close the gap. According to the latest The Hill/Emerson College poll, Slotkin is ahead by 5 percentage points. Trump and Harris are at 49 percent in the same poll.
“It’s still going to be a little bit of a challenge,” said the GOP staffer involved in the Senate races.
Pennsylvania
The Keystone State has emerged as a prominent swing state in the 2024 presidential race, but whether that holds true in the Senate race is a huge question as Republican David McCormick seeks to deny Sen. Bob Casey (D) a fourth term.
Similar to the elections in Wisconsin and Michigan, Republicans have felt emboldened in recent weeks that McCormick – buoyed by huge spending from his camp and McConnell’s ally – is narrowing Casey’s previously consistent lead.
Last week, GOP forces spent $9 million on the winning race second highest advertising expenditure and reservation amounts of all Senate races, behind only Ohio.
That has led some Republicans to grow increasingly positive that this could be the year they unseat the longtime senator whose name casts a long shadow across the state.
“This is a dogfight, and I think McCormick is coming to an end,” said Matt Beynon, a GOP strategist and longtime adviser to former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), whom Casey unseated in 2006. “I’m confident.” The first time, because with Casey it’s usually pretty fatalistic. It’s like running against a Kennedy in Massachusetts.”
The Hill/Emerson’s latest survey Analysis released last week also shows Casey with a 2-point lead – putting the race within the margin of error.
But toppling Casey remains a towering order. According to the latest findings Decision Desk HQ forecastThe Democrat has a 72 percent chance of winning re-election, although some Republicans in the state remain negative that McCormick can win.
“I’m overall confident about Pennsylvania’s chances right now. I am confident about the current status. … And I feel great about the row offices,” a Pennsylvania-based Republican activist told The Hill, adding that McCormick was the only exclusion from that group and that he still hasn’t gained enough traction.
“He was unable to move the needle,” they added.
