In these final days of the 2024 election, Senate races are gaining renewed attention. Republicans have a unique opportunity to flip at least two seats and win the majority Upper Chamber of Congress.
The battle for the Senate majority has entered its final month as Republicans fight to end their four-year term in the minority.
To do just that, the GOP only needs to win one of two competitive races in red states — Montana and Ohio. According to Decision Desk HQ and The Hill, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking back the upper chamber.
The bigger question is whether Republicans can strike gold beyond these two contests and extend their success across the battleground map.
Montana and West Virginia are very favorable for Republican victories. However, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio are the surprising outliers. If the winds of fortune turn in Republicans’ favor, a two-seat majority could turn into a five-seat lock.
Montana
In 2016 and 2020, former president and GOP nominee Donald Trump won Montana by double digits, and he is expected to do so again in 2024. Democratic Senator John Tester is running for his fourth term but is being challenged by Republican Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy Seal. Sheehy is newborn, charismatic and lively. Tester is a barnacle incumbent: he grew up (literally) through swamp excess. Along with Trump’s support of his candidacy, Sheehy has managed to successfully tie Tester to the failed Biden-Harris administration and its policies, and Sheehy currently holds one Eight points ahead via testers. The Senate Democratic Caucus and outside PACs are investing heavily in this race to no avail. Sheehy has maintained his lead over the incumbent senator and could extend it before the election. Barring a miracle, Sheehy appears to be forceful enough to flip that seat.
West Virginia
Democratic Senator Joe Manchin decided not to seek re-election, leaving the seat completely open in this deeply red state. WV Gov. Jim Justice is running to fill the post, and with the state expected to go heavily for Trump, the flipping of this seat is viewed by all prognosticators as a done deal. No doubt Baby dog will enjoy life in the Capitol.
Ohio
Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is still ahead of his Republican challenger, businessman Bernie Moreno, in the polls, but is receiving financial support from outside of PACsas well as Moreno’s successful revelation of Brown’s comfortable relationship with China, provides enough erosion that could make this a lean Republican race. The fact that VP candidate and OH Sen. JD Vance endorsed him and their messages about fighting for the working man aligned also worked in Moreno’s favor. Ohio fluctuates between lithe purple and red, but the state is likely to be won by Donald Trump in November, to Moreno’s advantage.
Shanghai Sherrod Brown has worked in Washington, DC for 30 years and has seen 200,000 good-paying manufacturing jobs leave Ohio. Moraine, Lordstown and many other facilities were once power plants. He is the Grim Reaper of Ohio production. pic.twitter.com/d2uhUxMPka
— Bernie Moreno (@berniemoreno) July 26, 2024
Even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is ignoring Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in his fight to keep his seat, has loosened his purse strings to support Moreno in Ohio.
But Republican forces have responded over the past month, with Moreno running ads and groups led by top aides of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), raising 80 million between Labor Day and Election Day want to spend US dollars.
A recent poll and a Washington Post poll show this race has become closer than Democrats would like.
However, recent polls suggest that this race is a case of pure bad decisions. According to a recent internal poll from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the race is deadlocked at 46 percent — marking a two-point swing in Moreno’s favor in about three weeks.
Wisconsin
Who would have thought that Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin would also be fighting for her life to keep her seat? But here we are: Republican candidate and real estate tycoon Eric Hovde is competing with Baldwin.
Eric Hovde is making a behind schedule bid to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and secure a seat in blue wall territory.
Alarm bells have been ringing in Democratic circles in recent weeks as Baldwin’s sizable lead throughout the campaign has become a narrow lead over Hovde, a wealthy businessman who has been able to lend a hand finance his campaign in recent weeks.
The Cook Political Report last week shifted the race from “lean Democrat” to “rolled up.”
Polls in early September showed even more devastating news for Baldwin.
Several newly released polls have shown a tightening Senate race in Wisconsin, where Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., is vying for her seat in a state that could most likely go to former President Trump in the presidential race.
In a up-to-date Marist poll Thursday, likely Wisconsin voters split 51% for Baldwin and 48% for Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde. A up-to-date Quinnipiac poll also showed the Democrat leading Hovde by just a few points, 51% to 47%, and an AARP poll showed Baldwin at 50% and the Republican candidate at 47%, with 3% were undecided.
In the AARP poll of voters over 50, Hovde managed to unseat Baldwin by a 50% to 49% margin.
Baldwin plays the usual women’s card, championing “reproductive rights” and gerrymandering, while Hovde focuses on what matters to Wisconsinites: the economy, inflation, and a porous border. Wisconsin has become a messed up state lately, which makes things invigorating until the end.
Michigan
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin likely thought she would have a silky transition to Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s seat, even against her opponent, former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers. Slotkin was a popular representative of the state, but was hampered by some clever people local investigative reporting and her more unpopular policies that have fallen out of favor with Michiganders, including her support for fellow Squad member and anti-Semitic MI Rep. Rashida Tlaib.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic candidate for an open U.S. Senate seat in Michigan, receives a farm tax credit for her home, but there are no farm licenses or agricultural activity on the property, The Post can exclusively report.
Located in rural Oakland County, the Holly home was gifted to Slotkin and her brother by their father, Curtis, in May 2023. It was transferred free of charge under a quitclaim deed, property records show.
The house is classified as “agriculturally improved” a term for any “improvements, buildings, structures or fixtures suitable for agricultural use and located on agricultural land.”
Because of this designation, the home is 100% exempt from property taxes.
When people are struggling to buy groceries and pay rent, it’s terrible that an elected official would capitalize on a property tax exemption by fraudulently claiming a status he doesn’t have. This story, along with her previous support, has gained traction EV mandates.
Slotkin can’t escape her support for electric vehicle regulations that will eliminate 400,000 auto jobs in Michigan. pic.twitter.com/siYQuCQzpR https://t.co/0UghQrHtQb
— Chris Gustafson (@chris_gustafson) October 14, 2024
In a Democratic campaign Zoom call, Slotkin also expressed concern that he could be dragged down by the party at the top of the ticket. An exclusive Axios report said Slotkin revealed that internal polls for Vice President and Democratic candidate-elect Kamala Harris were “underwater” in the state and that down-ballot contests like her would suffer as a result. With his previous flawed record on the House Intelligence Committee, Rogers himself is no ray of hope. But with the state of Michigan now seriously in play and Trump managing to win the state, this largesse would undoubtedly come his way and result in the Republican Senate winning the vote.
