A trend is emerging in the state of Virginia that suggests the Old Dominion may actually be in play for Donald Trump, which is very bad news indeed for Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. If Democrats aren’t screaming, “Take crash positions!” right now, they might want to think about starting.
Early voting in Virginia, where Democrats tend to dominate, began as early as September 25, and the Republican turnout appears to be far larger than expected. As of Monday, October 14, 2024, the early voting/mail-in voting numbers looked something like this:
693,662 votes cast
Democrats: 52.8%
Republican: 41.5%
Yes, Democrats still have the lead in total votes cast so far, but Republican voters, who are known to shy away from early voting in favor of voting in person on Election Day, are closing the classic gap in a massive way. Experts would expect It can be seen that the Democrats have a lead of around 30 percent at this point, but only have a lead of 11.3 percent.
Virginia voted early or absentee on 10/14/24
693,662 Dem 52.8% / NP 5.63% / Rep 41.5%
18-29 6.30% / 30-39 6.05% / 40-49 8.11% / 50-64 25.8% /65+53.7%*VA is a modeled partisan state – follow L2 data for non-partisan early return information https://t.co/BjqITtVAHZ pic.twitter.com/Jrjqax04hC
— L2 Data (@L2political) October 14, 2024
The experts could be wrong, of course, but that’s how it stood on November 1, 2020, after all early voting ended.
Virginia Early Return votes: 2,356,812 28% R / 61% D / 11% NP
A: 18-29 13% / 30-39 12% / 40-49 14% / 50-64 29% / 65+ 31%
Asian 4% / White 66% / Hispanic 5% / AfAm 14%
HS diploma 16% / Bach degree 21% / Degree degree + 16%
First vote/up-to-date regulations: 13% https://t.co/Zwc2KpkpU2 pic.twitter.com/rByc0xGJhL— L2 Data (@L2political) November 1, 2020
For those scoring at home, that means a Democrat advantage of 33 percent in 2020, up from 11.3 percent in 2024.
An observer keeping tabs on early voting in Virginia tweeted The out on Monday afternoon:
A tsunami of early voting over the weekend has left…VA getting redder and redder.
Thirteen days of early election gains for Democrats were wiped out in a single weekend.
We still need more data to draw firm conclusions (a delay in reporting could very well mean that Democrats regain some ground they lost tomorrow), but that’s exactly what Republicans should be hoping for.
Well, well, well.
Virginia was not even remotely thought to be in play for Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020 with a split of 54.1 percent to 44 percent. Just a week ago, Opinion poll Kamala Harris from Christopher Newport University (CNU) was able to maintain Biden’s lead in 2020 and even expand it a little. The candidates themselves are not campaigning in the former swing state because it seemed impossible for Trump to win there.
At the same time, Democrats dropped a key hint that they were concerned that Virginia was not locked in for them: The Biden-Harris Justice Department filed a lawsuit Friday against Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin for purging illegals from the commonwealth’s voter rolls had . Youngkin issued an executive order back in August removing thousands of non-citizens from the rolls. The Biden-Harris Justice Department had nothing to say at the time, but something must have spooked them.
Youngkin was having none of it, saying of the lawsuit:
“Virginians – and Americans – will see this for exactly what it is: a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of elections in the Commonwealth, the true crucible of American democracy.”
With only twenty-two days left until the election, things are getting pretty intriguing. Virginia also has a senatorial race pitting seemingly entrenched Democrat Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s vice presidential running mate in 2016, against Republican Hung Cao. The same CNU poll that showed Kamala with a significant lead also showed Kaine leading Cao by a whopping twenty points. Cao performed very well in his recent debate against Kaine, where he hit the jackpot with his messages:
“Ask yourself: Are you better off today than you were four years ago? Generally the answer is: no. The only people better off today than they were four years ago are illegal immigrants, criminals and senators like Senator Tim Kaine.”
Could the red early voting trend mean another Senate seat is at risk of being flipped to Republicans? It’s difficult to say, but 2024 is a strange year.
The stumbling block for any Republican is the populous, deep-blue region of Northern Virginia, home to many federal workers and a region that benefits greatly from massive government largesse. Trump doesn’t have to win there, he just needs to poll just enough votes for the rest of the state to carry him. That’s still a long shot, but the early voting numbers are very good news for Republicans.
We’re taking you live now to Democratic Party headquarters to hear their reaction:
