We are now less than three weeks into this presidential election season and Donald Trump is leading in six of the seven contested states – Wisconsin is the exception. His lead is narrow, but the trends seem to favor Trump/Vance. Two states in particular are likely to be the key to election victory; If one side wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan, they win the race. As it stands now, the Trump ticket can lose Pennsylvania, take Michigan and still win; All else being equal, if we take the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages at face value, Harris/Walz must have both states to win. These seem to be the most likely scenarios at the moment. (You can play with scenarios using RCP’s own map Here.)
The most recent PA poll, conducted by Rasmussen from October 9th to 13th, has Donald Trump increased by three points. He is ahead of Kamala Harris in the RCP average 0.3 points.
Analyst Salena Zito offered some thoughts on Pennsylvania Tuesday on RealClearPolitics Radio:
– Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) October 16, 2024
According to Zito, a few specific counties will be key to Pennsylvania’s victory. And some of these districts were Democratic strongholds until recently, but that appears to be changing.
The first county I look at is Cambria County, home of Johnstown. This is a county that was majority Democratic three years ago, but now there are nearly 50,000 more registered Republicans.
Let’s take a look Results 2020.
Regardless of Cambria County’s party registration, Trump won Cambria County by more than two to one over Joe Biden in 2020. So it’s a little worrisome to exploit Cambria County’s voter registration shift as an indicator. it appears to be a lagging indicator rather than a leading indicator. A heavily Democratic county would not have voted for a Republican candidate by such a gigantic majority if this registration change had not already been underway.
I would look at Luzerne County near Scranton. Erie and Northampton – with high costs of living and high inflation. Inflation is really crushing people. People forget that the city of Erie is the poorest zip code in our entire state. You have a problem with fentanyl. You have a problem with homelessness. They have a problem with crime.
In 2020, Trump won Luzerne County 56-42. This is a practical victory and I expect this to be the same trend we are seeing in Cambria County. Erie went to Joe Biden in 2020 – by one point, 49 to 48. Northampton went to Biden, but by an even smaller margin, 49.8 to 49. Granted, these are counties ripe for flipping, especially given the apparent trend in Pennsylvania polls at the moment – which I think understates the support for Trump/Vance. This is just my gut feeling, mind you, and I’m a long way from Pennsylvania. But Salena Zito seems to agree.
I would give preference to Trump simply because I believe that the people who are in the midst of despair, especially in the heavily Democratic area of the city of Erie, will not vote. People didn’t see them, they didn’t hear them. And everything else outside of Erie is Republican.
We’re getting really deep into the weeds here. But there’s a lot of fascinating data to digest, and if you’re a data junkie like me, it’s fascinating to look at these things now and compare them to what actually happens in the election. In fact, both here at RedState and on my own, I have compiled enough data to make the prediction (which I reserve the right to change based on novel data) that as things stand, Trump/Vance will take Pennsylvania. That gives them a choice unless something really strange happens west of the Mississippi. But the Trump/Vance team needs to win by enough margin to overcome any shenanigans in places like the Philadelphia metropolitan areas; that will be the challenge.
See related: Kamala unravels in PA, but those who weren’t there tell the story
‘Running Out of Time’: Shadows of 2019 at Kamala Harris’ Pennsylvania headquarters as panic sets in
Salena Zito makes a good point here, and I was one of them been repeating it for some time now:
The parties are changing, the Democrats have become too much of a social justice unit. God and faith are no longer part of the ideology – climate change has become more the center of their faith, the most crucial issue.
And that could very well be the reason why the Democrats lose the White House. The question is: will they learn anything from this? Or will they continue down the path and become a fringe party catering to coastal elites, celebrities and the dependent class? Here too I’ll make a guess: not yet. You will have to take a few losses at first.
