Voters in nine states will decide next month whether to add abortion rights to their constitutions, but the measures are unlikely to dramatically change access — at least not immediately.
Instead, voter approval would lead to more lawsuits on an issue that is constantly in court – more so than ever since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 2022’s Roe v. Wade repealed and opened the way for state abortion laws. It is already widespread in some states where the issue is on the ballot.
If passed by Missouri and taking effect in December, the measure would not repeal a state ban at all stages of pregnancy or levels of other regulations — including a 72-hour waiting period and a 44-inch (112-centimeter) door opening rule. for clinics—that forced Planned Parenthood to stop abortions in two offices, years before Roe was overturned.
“A yes vote for this is not a vote to repeal something. “It’s a vote to make sure the courts have to fight this for a long time,” said Republican Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman.
Coleman, who is also a conservative constitutional lawyer, said the Republican-dominated Legislature could also turn to voters and ask them to repeal the amendment if it passes.
Still, the measure would mean that “the wind will be at our backs” when it comes to lifting restrictions, said Emily Wales, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Great Plains, which operates in four states and for the past few years the only group was offering abortions in Missouri. The last clinic in Missouri operated by another Planned Parenthood affiliate stopped offering abortions shortly before Roe was overturned.
“It’s going to feel very different for us to say, ‘Missourians have a constitutional right.’ “If you’re going to get involved, you have to have a pretty good reason,” she said.
There is precedent that one change doesn’t fix everything immediately. Last year, Ohio passed a law banning abortions after cardiac activity could be detected, around six weeks and before women often realize they are pregnant. Enforcement had already been blocked by the courts. Ohio advocates have fought other regulations in preliminary legal battles, but those battles are not over and they fear lawmakers will block the utilize of taxpayer money to support access.
“Having fewer legal restrictions doesn’t necessarily make sense for someone who can’t afford the financial costs,” said Lexis Dotson-Dufault, executive director of the Abortion Fund of Ohio.
The most populous state with an abortion ballot measure this year is Florida. To win, it would require approval from 60% of voters. And Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration has alleged fraud in the signature gathering that led to the vote. This could be the basis for a court challenge to whether the change would take effect on January 7th. Meanwhile, proponents of the measure are suing current and former state health department officials over their efforts to get television stations to stop airing an advertisement for the change .
The office of Attorney General Ashley Moody, a Republican who sought to keep the measure off the ballot, did not respond to an interview request.
A measure in Nevada wouldn’t immediately make a massive splash because it would legally need to be passed not only in November but also in 2026.
In Colorado, Maryland and New York – where the measure does not specifically provide for “abortion” but instead bans discrimination based on “pregnancy outcomes” – abortion is already allowed at least until viability – generally after 20 weeks, with some exceptions.
Colorado’s measure would also lift a ban on using taxpayer money for abortions. A fresh law would be required to include abortion in health insurance for government employees and those with Medicaid coverage.
Arizona’s amendment would take effect upon a governor’s proclamation if voters approve it. The state bans abortions after 15 weeks — and most occur before then. Earlier this year, some Republican lawmakers in the politically contested state joined with Democrats to repeal a much more restrictive ban dating to 1864 before it could be enforced.
In Nebraska, the vote includes competing measures: One would ban abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy with some exceptions, mirroring the current ban but leaving open the possibility of tougher restrictions. The other would allow abortion until profitable.
To become law, an amendment would not only need majority support, but also more votes than the other measure.
In South Dakota, where abortion is banned throughout pregnancy, opponents and supporters are arguing over a measure that would prohibit the state from regulating first-trimester abortions and allow second- and third-trimester arrangements only under certain health circumstances .
If the measure passes and survives the challenge, it would take effect on July 1, 2025.
The Life Defense Fund is focused on its campaign to defeat the measure at the ballot box, rather than what might come next, said group spokeswoman Caroline Woods.
Dakotans for Health has supported the amendment and expects the Republican-dominated Legislature will try to “thread that needle” and impose restrictions in the second trimester if the amendment passes, group co-founder Rick Weiland said.
And that would probably mean more lawsuits.
“This is a problem that will never go away,” Weiland said.
