The poll dynamics recently all seemed to be going in former President Donald Trump’s favor.
After Kamala Harris bombed her Wednesday interview with Fox’s Bret Baier, things are likely to go more his way. We’ll be keeping an eye on this as the numbers come out and it will be fascinating to see how independents view it. I think she hasn’t helped herself by once again failing to answer the questions people have about what she would do. It was a train wreck when it came to providing answers or acting as president.
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But even when that aired yesterday, the predictions were already leaning more toward Trump and are now even better.
Polymarket’s betting forecast has shifted significantly towards Trump. According to Polymarket, they are up just more than 2 percent since the interview.
.@Polymarket – Winner of the presidential election
🟥 Donald Trump: 62% (fresh high)
🟦 Kamala Harris: 38%September 19 Odds – 🔵 Harris 52-47%
——
Swing States (Chance of Winning)Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 59-41%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/4ZJaKnZhlO pic.twitter.com/rXde9Cqm4w— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024
So the betting markets also viewed this as a crash and burnout for Harris, and while we’ll continue to see how this plays out, at this point it looks like that’s a fair assessment. This gives Trump a fresh high in his forecast. The tweet above showed him leading in all swing states except Nevada, which is tied. They also have an 80 percent chance of Republicans taking the Senate, which you can see in the tweet below.
Now Nate Silver has decided he can’t fight back against the tide of polls and has also reverted to Trump in his forecast, 50.2 percent to 49.5 percent, a substantial departure from Harris.
#NEW – @NateSilver538 Prediction (Chance of winning the Electoral College)
September 27th
🟦 Harris: 58.1%
🟥 Trump: 41.7%October 17th
🟥 Trump: 50.2%
🟦 Harris: 49.5%
——@Polymarket Senate quotas
🟥 Republican: 80%Polymarket Swing States Odds 👇https://t.co/BBwAM9ruC4 pic.twitter.com/iiRSWKVryB
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024
The RealClearPolitics average has Trump in advance in all battleground states except Wisconsin, where the difference is just 0.3 percent in Kamala’s favor. RCP currently has Harris ahead in the statewide popular vote by just 1.5 percent. Given the electoral college bias we’ve seen in recent years, this is bad news for Harris, as it would likely mean a Trump victory if it persists.
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 17, 2024
Of course it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway, don’t assume it. Get out there and vote. Get everyone you know who has sense to vote too.
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