I’ve been writing about trends in polls and averages from RealClearPolitics (RCP) since the general election season began. There were fits and starts; President Joe Biden, of course, was facing a catastrophic loss until confused senior Joe dropped out and left the Democratic Party apparatchiks nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as nominee. Harris saw a slight bump afterward for not being Biden; She didn’t get much attention from the convention, and maybe a little from the one presidential debate. Aside from these minor bumps, the trend is clearly towards former President Donald Trump; Slowly but surely, Trump has gained ground.
If you’ve read my predictions, you know that I don’t put much stock in individual polls. I refer to the RCP averages because they ignore the outliers to some extent and give a good picture of the state of the race and, more importantly, they can show trends. And again the trend is towards Trump. With each public appearance, Kamala Harris delves deeper into her campaign, to the point where she would have to look up to see the bottom of the Barents Abyss.
Today – Thursday – we see a significant shift. My colleague Nick Arama gave an excellent summary of the state of the race on Thursday morning:
See related: Trump gets more good news in election forecasts as Kamala crashes and burns on Fox
Nick wrote:
The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading in all battleground states except Wisconsin, where the difference is just 0.3 percent in Kamala’s favor. RCP currently has Harris ahead in the statewide popular vote by just 1.5 percent. Given the electoral college bias we’ve seen in recent years, this is bad news for Harris, as it would likely mean a Trump victory if it persists.
In the few hours since Nick wrote those words, that has changed. As of this writing, Thursday afternoon, the RCP average for Wisconsin has tipped toward Trump. The Trump/Vance ticket, in the RCP averageshas a clear overview of the seven contested states. Here we are now:
- Arizona: Trump +1.1
- Nevada: Trump +0.5
- Wisconsin: Trump +0.1
- Michigan: Trump +0.9
- Pennsylvania: Trump +0.5
- North Carolina: Trump +1.0
- Georgia: Trump +0.9
These numbers, If they are correct, and If They hold for three weeks, giving Trump/Vance a convincing victory, 312-226. A word of warning: These margins are all well within the margin of error in most surveys. Another caution: In the last two presidential election cycles, 2016 and 2020, all polls underestimated the final Republican vote. Now the pollsters may have adjusted their sampling models, found the cause, and fixed the problem. Then again, maybe they didn’t.
Pennsylvania, of course, remains a crucial state – perhaps The crucial condition. And things aren’t looking good for Harris/Walz either.
See related: ‘Running Out of Time’: Shadows of 2019 at Kamala Harris’ Pennsylvania headquarters as panic sets in
According to Pennsylvania Democrats, Harris’ operation is a problem in Pennsylvania
The turnaround in Wisconsin is largely due to a Rasmussen poll from October 9th/10th. to which Trump is ahead by two points. Before that, there was an Insider Advantage poll in Wisconsin, 10-08/10-09, which showed a tie, and a Quinnipiac poll, 10-03/10-07, which again had Trump ahead by 2.
Harris, her campaign would no doubt point out, is still ahead in the RCP average by 1.5 points. But honestly, who cares? That’s not how we choose presidents. This number simply doesn’t matter. It’s a statistical oddity. That’s all.
Trends, people. It’s about trends. The RCP numbers in the battleground states still show a close race; They are still within the margin of error. But looking at the trends, I would much rather be in Trump’s position than Harris’.
