Republican Eric Hovde faces a critical moment in the first debate in the Wisconsin Senate on Friday as there are signs he is getting closer to incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in one of the country’s most competitive races in the upper chamber.
The rivals will go head-to-head as polls show the Trump-backed Republican narrowing the gap, boosting Republican hopes of a Badger State win in the battle for the Senate majority.
Hovde, a Madison-area businessman and millionaire, ran for Senate in the 2012 cycle in which Baldwin ultimately won the seat but lost in the GOP primary. Democrats reject the idea that Hovde has enough momentum this time around — but as he runs with the backing of former President Trump and a substantial boost in home funding, voices from both parties acknowledge the race is upside down.
“It’s a dead heat,” said Wisconsin-based Republican strategist Bill McCoshen.
Cook’s Political Report has shifted the race away from the Democrats earlier this month, making it one of only three undecided Senate contests after that Cook’s Swing State Project Polls noted that Baldwin’s 7-point lead in August has shrunk to 2 points this month. Opinion poll Averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill also show a narrowing gap: Baldwin’s score is now up 2.8 percentage points, compared to 3.5 points last week and 7 points in August.
Hovde’s campaign team confirmed to The Hill last week that there was a 1- or 2-point split in recent internal polls and Baldwin said The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that it was “very close” within her. A Election note from the Republican National Senatorial Committee (NRSC), obtained by The Hill and reported by Politico this week, showed Hovde narrowly leading Baldwin in its internals for the first time by a 1-point margin. With other candidates on the ballot, Hovde and Baldwin were exactly tied.
“Hovde has a clear opportunity to continue his growth and solidify support while simultaneously driving up Baldwin’s negatives and driving down her position on the ballot,” NRSC Executive Director Jason Thielman wrote in the memo.
And since Republicans saw promising numbers in Wisconsin, Outside money flowed into the raceincluding a immense recent influx Senate Leadership Funda top GOP super PAC to boost Hovde. Baldwin still has the advantage in fundraising, according to the latest documents from the Federal Election Commissionbut Hovde ended the third quarter with a little more cash.
“He not only invested a record amount of his own money, but also the money of third parties – including the Senate leadership [Fund] and the NRSC – have invested more than $20 million here in the home stretch,” McCoshen said. “So they clearly see an opportunity for pickup and are following their word with action. And that certainly gives Hovde a chance.”
Head lost his bid for the Senate seat in 2012 in the GOP primary against former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R). Six years later he continued another career as Baldwin comfortably beat back a Trump-backed challenger to win a second term.
are Republicans hopeful about Hovde’s second attempt to break through in the Midwest’s “blue wall” state this year. Although the party had looked to the then MP. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) as a potential contender, his decision not to run cleared the way for it Hovde two appear as the top candidate.
Notably, he is among the five most self-funded candidates in presidential and congressional elections this cycle. according to data compiled by Open Secrets. Among other things, he is the CEO of a real estate development company Hovde properties and the CEO of Sunwest Bank based in Utah.
“An election in Wisconsin is, of course, on a knife edge and it could go one way or the other,” said Alec Zimmerman, a Republican strategist who ran communications for Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) during the midterm elections. But a confluence of factors this cycle, from Hovde’s self-funding to Trump’s election results in the state, are giving Republicans momentum, he argued.
Although Democrats acknowledge it will be a close race to the finish line, they are confident Baldwin will fend off her challenger in November.
“In Wisconsin, we run close elections. And Tammy Baldwin never spent a day campaigning in this race as if it was going to be anything other than a tough, tough fight to the finish,” Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki said in an interview earlier this month . He called Hovde’s campaign “disappointing” and said the Republican was “MAGA dressing” while siding with Trump.
While Hovde tried to portray Baldwin as a career politician, the Democrats cast Hovde as a carpetbaggerpointing to his work outside the state, and hammered his previous support for overturning Roe v. Wade.
“Some polls show it’s getting smaller,” Zepecki said of the race. “And for those of us who live in Wisconsin, we shrug our shoulders and say, ‘Yeah, we always thought it was going to be close.’ And we get back to work.
Hovde and Baldwin now face their first and likely only showdown on the debate floor against the backdrop of a tightening race and a tough fight for control of the Senate, despite Hovde having done so He reportedly pushed for further debates be planned.
The incumbent “will show why Wisconsin voters trust her to represent them in the U.S. Senate: She shows up, listens and advocates for them and their families. And she will work with everyone to make it happen,” Baldwin campaign spokesman Andrew Mamo told The Hill in a statement. “In the meantime, Eric Hovde will be the out-of-touch California bank owner who we all know is spreading lies about Tammy, insulting Wisconsin residents, and pushing his extreme political agenda.”
Hovde’s campaign, however, says the Republican will apply the debate stage to “show what the people of Wisconsin already know – Tammy Baldwin is radical, extreme and wrong for Wisconsin and it’s time for change,” said spokesman Zach Bannon.
The rivals are expected to spar over some of the same hot-button issues that have taken center stage in other states’ recent Senate races – including the economy, immigration and reproductive rights – and to pounce on some of their best lines of attack. Observers say Friday night’s broadcast may not draw a immense Wisconsin audience, but candidates will likely compete to score viral moments that they can apply to boost their profile or bash their opponent in the run-up to Election Day.
“Any missteps” in the debate stage will be “amplified” in the final days of the campaign, McCoshen said. And in a race where the candidates appear to be separated by just a few points, that could make a substantial difference.
Another important factor emerging in the Senate contest is the competition for the White House, as Trump’s strength lies in the Midwest boosts GOP Senate hopes.
The current average values from Decision Desk HQ show Trump leading Vice President Harris by 0.5 percentage points in the state. He won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2016, and President Biden managed a razor-thin swing to the Democrats in 2020.
Trump “has to win for Hovde to win,” McCoshen said. “I can’t imagine a scenario where Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin and Hovde pulls off an upset.”
Republicans only need two seats to take control of the Senate, and they do preferred to do this With Sen. Joe Manchin (I) retiring in West Virginia and Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana extremely vulnerable. If they don’t lose any more seatsthat could give them the chamber victory — and possible pickups in Wisconsin or elsewhere could support expand their majority.
“Wisconsin is sort of the highest 50-50 state in the country,” Zimmerman said. And with poll numbers getting tighter, “the stakes at the time of this debate couldn’t be higher.”
