WASHINGTON (AP) — One of them is the longest-serving woman in congressional history. The other is dean of the Republican delegation from California and chairman of a subcommittee responsible for Pentagon spending. Together, they have more than seven decades of experience in Congress.
And both are in the fight of their political lives.
The hotly contested House slate in next month’s election is filled with freshmen and two-term lawmakers hoping to last another term so they can build their qualifications and gain some seniority for caucus duties.
Reps. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, and Ken Calvert, R-Calif., are the opposite.
Kaptur was first sworn into the House of Representatives in 1983. President Ronald Reagan was halfway through his first term in office. Calvert took office in 1993, the year Bill Clinton became president.
The two have often won in previous congressional races but have seen their districts redistricted after the last decennial census to become more competitive. Both overcome that shift in the 2022 midterm elections. But the narrow victories have led both parties to pour millions of dollars into the two races, the results of which will help determine which party controls the House of Representatives next year.
A Kaptur defeat could be a sign of Republican gains in Rust Belt communities. Meanwhile, a Calvert loss could spell trouble for Republicans in California, where House Democrats are trying to regain the majority by focusing heavily on a state they already dominate. About a fifth of this year’s most competitive races are taking place in California.
Both Kaptur and Calvert declined debate invitations from local media, while their challengers accepted.
KAPTUR’S CHALLENGE(*70*)
Kaptur represents Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, centered in Toledo. Her mother was a member of the organizing committee of a union at a spark plug factory in Toledo, and Kaptur maintained close ties with the unions throughout her career.
She strongly opposed the 1990s trade agreement with Canada and Mexico ratified under Clinton, an agreement that Republican Donald Trump would make a focus of his successful 2016 presidential bid.
“She always had strong union support. That was the key to victory in all different versions of Ohio 9,” said Sam Nelson, an associate professor of political science and public administration at the University of Toledo.
But the Ohio Legislature, under Republican control, has redrawn the district’s boundaries to include more rural communities. It went from a comfortable Democratic district to one that was on Trump’s side by about 3 percentage points. It wasn’t the first time state lawmakers used redistricting to make things harder for her, sending Kaptur into a 2012 primary with fellow Democrat Dennis Kucinich, where she prevailed.
Kaptur is running against Republican candidate Derek Merrin, a member of the Ohio House of Representatives. He is a staunch conservative who lost a bid to become House speaker last year when 22 House Republicans and 32 House Democrats joined together to support a Republican rival for the post.
“He’s coming from a much stronger position and is in a much better position to get national money to support his campaign, support from people like House Speaker Mike Johnson,” Nelson said, comparing Merrin to previous Kaptur opponents.
Merrin’s campaign has raised about $1.3 million and had about $431,000 in cash on hand at the end of September. According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Kaptur raised about $4.2 million and had about $1.7 million in cash.
Outside groups could reduce Kaptur’s financial advantage. Republican groups plan to spend about $2.3 million on campaign advertising in the coming weeks, most of it coming from a super PAC called the Congressional Leader Fund. Democratic groups plan to spend about $2 million. This emerges from information from the media tracking company AdImpact.
CALVERT’S CHALLENGE(*70*)
Calvert represents California’s 41st Congressional District. He has been re-elected in a few cycles, but has also won some close races. His opponent is Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor whose cases included some of the people who attacked the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
It’s a rematch of the 2022 race, in which Calvert won by about 11,000 votes. Midterm elections often benefit candidates from the party that does not have control of the White House. Democrats are seeking a presidential election to boost turnout in a district where Republicans and Democrats are roughly evenly represented.
Calvert has raised about $7.2 million this election cycle and had about $3.6 million in cash at the end of September, FEC records show. Rollins has raised about $10.7 million this cycle and had about $3.9 million in cash on hand at the end of September. It’s unusual for a challenger to outperform an incumbent, especially one as established as Calvert.
Outside groups are also making their presence felt in the Los Angeles area’s high-priced advertising market. Democratic groups and the Rollins campaign have set aside about $6.9 million for ad buys as of Thursday, according to AdImpact. Republican groups and the Calvert campaign had set aside about $5.8 million in advertising time.
In a sporadic campaign visit to California on Saturday, Republican candidate Donald Trump spoke near the precinct, telling the crowd: “Everyone needs to get out and vote for Ken.” Calvert also spoke at the rally, appealing to voters concerned about the cost of living and are concerned about crime.
Matt Leseyie, an assistant professor of political science at California State University-Long Beach, said the addition of Palm Springs, with its gigantic LGBTQ population, to Calvert County has dramatically changed the political vigorous. He expects competition to be tough, just like in 2022.
“Can Calvert turn his old district, the people he knows, against this army of Palm Springs people?” Leseyie said. “I think it comes down to mobilization. Maybe Rollins’ last run helped him gain a foothold in terms of organization so he could get over the finish line.”
CAMPAIGN TOPICS(*70*)
In the California race, Rollins described himself in an ad as a prosecutor who took on international criminal gangs to “secure our border and stop the flow of fentanyl.” He also portrays himself as an outsider who wants to “stop corruption in both parties” by supporting legislation that would impose term limits and a ban on stock trading by lawmakers.
Calvert appealed to voters’ concerns about high taxes and the prices of gas and groceries with an ad that said, “Democrats have made California unaffordable.” Extreme liberal Will Rollins will make it worse.” He also attacks Rollins ‘ Works as a public prosecutor and describes her in advertisements as too flexible.
In the Ohio race, several ads from Democratic groups focus on Merrin’s opposition to abortion rights. An ad from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee accuses Merrin of not focusing on cost cutting and job creation: “Derek Merrin doesn’t get it. He’s too obsessed with banning abortion.”
Merrin has emphasized his support for Trump’s immigration policies and, among other things, called for the construction of more border walls. “The border is wide open with drugs and gangs ruining our community here in northwest Ohio, so I’m making a change,” says a voter in a Merrin ad, emphasizing that he was raised a Democrat but is voting for it would the Republican.
