Two weeks before Election Day, reports are circulating that panic has set in at Kamala Harris’ headquarters as her supposed momentum has now “stalled” and concerns about the campaign grow in key “blue wall” states like Pennsylvania . Concern is also growing about how she will fare with black and Latino male voters.
As we’ve mentioned before, we’re at a point in the election cycle where campaigns should be running like well-oiled machines. The fact that Harris’ campaign is not yet at this stage – especially in a key state like Pennsylvania – is a deeply troubling sign for her.
READ MORE ->> “Running Out of Time”: Shades of 2019 at Kamala Harris’ headquarters in Pennsylvania
Furthermore, we learn that there are some real fears on the Harris-Walz team about North Carolina “getting away,” which isn’t a good thing considering the Old North State was seen as part of their “insurance” plan in case they lost one of their Blue Wall States (Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin):
But also potentially worrisome for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign team had considered one of their best insurance options could also be in jeopardy. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers suggested in interviews that combining the electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada would be a forceful alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats have forceful organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less hopeful about victory, four people with knowledge of the active said.
“Of all seven [states]that seems to be slipping away a little bit,” the Harris campaign manager said of North Carolina.
NBC News cited, among other things, the devastation in western North Carolina caused by Hurricane Helene as a possible reason for these fears.
But as it turns out, the problems are less about Helene and more about these two things: the black electorate is not turning out the way it has in previous election cycles due to early voting, and an unusually forceful performance by GOP voters so far in EV.
Veteran North Carolina Democratic consultant Thomas Mills explained:
The most noticeable impact is among black voters. So far, at this point in time for in-person voting, there are more than 67,000 fewer African American voters than there were in 2020. That’s a huge deficit that Democrats should address. They need to reallocate money and people to engage with black voters and get them to the polls.
The problem is widespread. There are 4,500 fewer black voters in Durham County this year than there were four years ago. In Mecklenburg the number is 5,000. In Wake there are just over 3,000. In Cumberland, the black vote fell by 5,000. In Guilford there are more than 8,500.
[…]
The GOP has an extensive early voting program that hasn’t existed in the past. The votes they garner now will likely reduce their conventional advantage on Election Day, but it’s too early to say by how much. Due to the impact of Helene, voter turnout in the mountains has decreased somewhat, but not as much as feared. It is tough to say whether the impact will have an impact on the outcome of the election.
Mills also warned that the low Black voter turnout so far – if it continues – could lead to Democratic Rep. Don Davis in the 1st Congressional District (who is the only “throw(state district) will likely “lose” his race to GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout. If so, it would be the first time since 1883 This seat went to a Republican (recent redistricting made it more competitive).
For example, as far as the numbers for Republicans vs. Democrats overall in North Carolina, after the third day it looked like this:
NC Early Vote Update🗳️:
After the first three days of voting, the data shows that the Democrats got off to a historically slow start, with the electorate favoring the Republicans (so far). Compared to 2020:
📉Dems down 11.3%
📈GOP up 9%
📈Men rise 1.7%
📈65+ block by 4.3%#ncpol #ncga
(Source: ncsboe💻by me) pic.twitter.com/3Z9BibNNDd— Mike Rusher (@mjrusher) October 20, 2024
And after day five:
Votes by party for everyone #ncpol Early voting methods through day 5 of 20 and 24👇GOP near record turnout of 20. DEMS and UNAS are off pace.
DEM⬇️364,442
20: 847,517
24: 483,075GOP⬇️31,722
20: 495,636
24: 463,914ONE⬇️108,319
20: 535,871
24: 427,552— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) October 22, 2024
“It’s still early, but it’s hard to read anything other than that Trump and the Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage over Harris and the Democrats,” Blaine, former chief of staff to Senate leader Phil Berger, tells me.
Needless to say, the North Carolina Republican Party is piling on news of the Harris campaign worrying about the state:
It’s crazy that you all scream and put on drag shows @NCDemParty The headquarters didn’t pay off.
CC: @abreezeclayton #NCPOL https://t.co/kSlHx1X2gK
— Matt Mercer (@mattmercer) October 22, 2024
Man, do you think?
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