For most of this month, we’ve watched the polls move in favor of former President Donald Trump.
Georgia is looking particularly good considering the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, which puts the state with a four-point lead for Trump, which could cause it to fall out of the swing state category. Early voting in Nevada is also looking pretty good for Republicans.
The latest forecast numbers from Nate Silver have Trump up 53.1 to 46.6 nationally.
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Now Silver says his gut tells him that Trump will win (and he is not a Trump supporter).
“In an election where the seven battleground states are all within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only reliable forecast,” Silver said. whose model is currently evaluating the Republican candidate with a 53.1% chance of becoming the 47th president, wrote in a New York Times editorial Published Tuesday.
“But when I break this unsatisfactory news, I inevitably get a question: ‘Come on, Nate, what’s your gut saying?'” Silver continued. “All right, I’ll tell you. My gut feeling says Donald Trump. And I suspect this is true for many concerned Democrats.”
Silver, 46, said polls had underestimated Trump’s performance in the last two elections because of the “non-response bias” among the 78-year-old’s supporters.
Silver said if Trump won, it would show that Democrats would no longer hold the lead in party identification, and we saw this in the Gallup poll, which showed Republicans are +3 in party identification.
Now the HarrisX/Forbes poll reports another substantial boost for Trump.
🇺🇲 National Poll: HarrisX/Forbes
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 49%Latest poll (9/11-13) – 🔵 Harris +4
——
Battleground states
🟥 Trump: 54%
🟦 Harris: 46%October 21st – 22nd | 1,244 LV | MoE: ±2.5%https://t.co/eyxPZ74EGi pic.twitter.com/HdBqbpHLoZ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 23, 2024
They now have Trump ahead in the statewide vote by two percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent, with leaners — a six-point boost from last month, when Kamala Harris was four points ahead. Additionally, they have Trump ahead by eight points in the battleground states, a sizable lead at 54 percent to 46 percent.
That drops Harris’ lead in the RealClearPolitics average for the statewide vote to 0.7. As we’ve found, when you take Electoral College bias into account, that’s actually good news for Trump. Trump is up 1.1 points in battleground states and is still ahead in all swing states.
– Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 23, 2024
You can see averages rising in places like Georgia and Arizona.
That looks good too, but as I said, only we can do it. Pull out everyone you can and plan to vote early if you are able.
Expect the Democrats and their supporters in the media to throw everything they can at the wall in the last few days. We can already see them doing this with all sorts of fraudulent stories and a constant effort to vilify Trump. In fact, Harris just held a press conference to call Trump “Hitler” again.
READ MORE: MUCH DESPERATE? Yes, Kamala Harris actually held a press conference just to call Donald Trump “Hitler.”
It is an insult and an insult to the American people that Harris and the Democrats continue like this.
But the comical thing is that Harris is so focused on it that she fails to define herself in a more positive way. All Americans see are the false stories about Trump that they have already rejected, while she presents no reason to vote for her at all.
