WASHINGTON (AP) — North Carolina voters will cast their ballots for president and governor in the Nov. 5 general election as many in the state still grapple with the fallout and massive destruction from Hurricane Helene.
The Tarheel State is one of the few hotly contested presidential battlegrounds that will likely decide the race for the White House. Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, poll numbers there have risen significantly, making the state a popular target for both campaigns. Since the storm, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump and their running mate have all visited North Carolina.
Since 1968, Democratic presidential candidates have won North Carolina only twice: in 1976 and 2008. Still, the state has been competitive in recent years. Trump won North Carolina twice, but received less than 50% of the vote each time. In 2020, he was about one percentage point ahead of Biden, his narrowest lead in any state.
In the gubernatorial race, Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein are the candidates to replace Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who is term-limited. Robinson has denied a CNN report that he posted explicit messages on a pornography website more than a decade ago. Since the allegations surfaced, many of his campaign staffers have resigned and he was barred from a Trump campaign rally in Wilmington.
Also on the ballot is a contest in the 1st Congressional District in northeastern North Carolina. Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis is seeking a second term against Republican Laurie Buckhout.
In the state Legislature, Republicans significantly outnumber Democrats in both chambers, but a net loss of a single seat in the Senate or House could cost the GOP its supermajority and, with it, its ability to override the governor’s veto. All 50 state Senate seats and 120 state House of Representatives seats are up for election.
Voters will also consider a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would allow only U.S. citizens to vote in the state.
Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 elections in North Carolina:
election day
November 5th.
Survey closing time
7:30 p.m. ET.
Presidential election votes
16 were awarded to the statewide winner.
Important races and candidates
President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Cornel West (Justice For All).
Governor: Robinson (R) vs. Stein (D) and three others.
1st Congressional District: Davis (D) vs. Buckhout (R) and another.
Ballot Measure: NC 1 (Citizenship Requirement for General Vote).
Other captivating breeds
U.S. House of Representatives, Commissioner of Agriculture, Attorney General, Comptroller, Court of Appeals, Insurance Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Supreme Court, Superintendent of Public Education, Treasurer, State Senate, State House of Representatives.
Decision notes
North Carolina has a track record of counting votes relatively quickly, leaving only about 1% of votes uncounted after election night. This year, the count may be slowed in some areas due to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. State elections officials approved emergency measures in nearly 30 western counties and tribal areas that give voters additional options for casting their mail-in ballots.
State law allows county election officials to begin tallying mail-in ballots before polls close on Election Day. Therefore, many of these mail-in ballots will be included in the initial votes reported on election night. Overall, these ballots have tended to favor Democrats since the issue of early voting and mail-in voting became highly politicized in the 2020 election. This means that the Democratic candidate in a contest could take an early lead in the vote count in the first voting reports after the polls close, although the race could tighten significantly as more votes are tallied.
In the 2022 U.S. Senate race, for example, Democrat Cheri Beasley had a 20-point lead over Ted Budd when the first votes were cast after polls closed. That lead disappeared after about 90 minutes when Budd overtook Beasley in the vote count and won the seat. Absentee and early in-person voting accounted for about 59% of all ballots in this election.
In statewide elections, Democratic strongholds are in the Raleigh, Charlotte, Greensboro and Fayetteville areas, while Republicans tend to do best in the western, eastern and southeastern areas of the state. When Barack Obama took North Carolina in 2008, he won beyond safe and sound Democratic areas and captured an additional 11 counties in moderate Republican areas. More than half of those counties are likely out of reach for Democrats today as Trump outperformed Biden by double digits in 2020. But that same year, Democratic Gov. Cooper won Granville, Pasquotank and Scotland counties and narrowed the margins in others in his successful re-election campaign.
Other counties to watch include Nash, northeast of Raleigh, and New Hanover on the Atlantic coast. They are two of only 10 counties on the seven presidential ballots that flipped from Trump to Biden. Nash is expected to complete its vote count around 10 p.m. ET, followed by New Hanover about half an hour later.
The Associated Press does not make predictions and will declare a winner only after determining that there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If no race has been called, the AP will continue to report any major developments, such as: B. Concessions by the candidates or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not declared a winner and explain why.
There is no automatic recount in North Carolina, but candidates can request and pay for one if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total vote, or 10,000 votes in statewide elections, or 1% in nonstatewide elections. The AP may declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine that the margin is too gigantic for a recount or legal challenge to change the result.
Past presidential results
2020: Trump (R) 50%, Biden (D) 49%, AP Race Call: Fri. Nov. 13, 2020, 3:49 p.m. ET.
Voter registration and turnout
Registered voters: 7,666,436 (as of September 1, 2024). 31% Democrats, 30% Republicans.
Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election: 75% of registered voters.
Voting before election day
Votes cast before Election Day 2020: approximately 84% of the total votes.
Votes cast before Election Day 2022: approximately 58% of the total votes.
Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote Tracker.
How long does it take to count the votes?
First votes reported, November 3, 2020: 7:42 p.m. ET.
By midnight ET: About 99% of all votes cast have been reported.
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Associated Press writers Rebecca Reynolds, Paul Wiseman and Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.
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