In his latest forecast, election analyst Nate Silver assumes that President Donald Trump is in the black.
Nate Silver’s 2024 election prediction:
🔴 Trump: 53.8%
🔵 Harris: 45.8% pic.twitter.com/nCSIHcHlJW— Kyle James (@KyleJamesLive) November 1, 2024
Silver also managed to get a lot of people talking when he called out polls for keeping the race close, which he called “holding up” or “cheating,” and said they couldn’t all come out within a point.
Graphic Language Warning:
Nate Silver to the pollsters: “You’re a damn sheepdog. You’re cheating… If you poll 800 people in dozens of surveys, your numbers won’t all add up to exactly one point. You lie. You put your damn finger on the scale. pic.twitter.com/kowED2GiBd
– Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 31, 2024
He said the race has been shifting toward Trump since early October. Then he started making fun of the polls and said, “Every state is a plus! Every single state is a draw! No, you’re fucking cheating!”
You’re cheating… If you poll 800 people in dozens of surveys, your numbers won’t all add up to exactly one point. You lie. You put your damn finger on the scale.
He mentioned Emerson by name but did not explain why he found Emerson particularly offensive. Emerson has a national tie between Trump and Harris.
“If a pollster never releases numbers that surprise you, then they have no value,” he said.
Silver criticized most other pollsters except the New York Times, saying that the rest were “mostly just speculating on this election.”
One of the things NYT/Siena shows is that Trump is leading with a gigantic number of recent voters in battleground states – the people with no or low turnout.
The NYT poll in battleground states confirms what our polls have shown for more than two years.
For the first time in my life, the numbers of ordinary people who cast no or few votes for Trump are an insane number.
That means if the Republicans vote, the Democrats really don’t stand a chance.
— Rich Baris, the Peoples Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) October 31, 2024
Local canvassers tell me they are knocking on doors they haven’t visited in over 10 years of volunteer work.
The latest survey in Siena confirms this:
• No voting results ➡️ Trump +19
• 2020 election only ➡️ Trump +12— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 31, 2024
This included people who may have only voted in the 2020 election.
As for the other people who don’t “guard,” there’s also Atlas Intel, who doesn’t just have them ahead in a draw or a point.
#NEW – Voting map based on @atlas_intel Survey (full field)
🟥 Trump 312 🏆
🟦 Harris 226
——
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +4.9
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +4.0
Nevada – 🔴 Trump +3.6
Georgia – 🔴 Trump +1.6
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +1.1
Michigan – 🔴 Trump +0.9
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +0.3… https://t.co/gpLZ59xJG6 pic.twitter.com/N0Mf2mQ0AT— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2024
There will also be further polls until the upcoming election day.
We’ll know soon, but of course ask everyone who isn’t there yet to vote so we can make it happen.
READ MORE: Shock Poll in PA and More Interesting News on Toss-Up States
