There are two days left until Election Day, and Republicans are looking to take control of the Senate expand their majority.
Democrats have a 51-49 lead that Republicans have already exploited with their impending victory in West Virginia, where GOP Gov. Jim Justice is the clear favorite to fill the seat vacated by outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). becomes free. ).
That means Republicans only need one more seat to win back the upper house, with Montana and Ohio being the main targets.
Accordingly Decision Office Headquarters (DDHQ), the GOP has a 70 percent chance of taking back the Senate.
A number of battleground races have become dead heats, and the performance of former President Trump and former Vice President Harris could also play a role in the results.
For the final time in the 2024 cycle, here are the five seats expected to be flipped, not including the West Virginia seat.
Montana
A win in Montana means a majority for the GOP, and the party is increasingly sanguine about Republican Tim Sheehy’s ability to unseat Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).
Outside of West Virginia, Montana is considered Republicans’ best chance to win a seat.
According to a recent poll from The Hill/Emerson CollegeSheehy leads the three-term incumbent by 4 percentage points (50 percent to 46 percent). And the Cook Political Report has the spot in its “lean Republicans” section.
Perhaps the way each side designed its final editions is an indication of the state of affairs. A top GOP outside group of tardy almost $3 million moved from Montana to Nevada, where Republicans have seen some last-minute tightening, showing confidence that Sheehy is ready to seal the deal.
“As far as Montana goes, I’m sure right now,” a Senate Republican told The Hill, pointing out that recent internal polling on the Republican side has shown Sheehy with a lead over Tester that is well beyond the margin of error .
However, despite public polling, Democrats don’t believe this race is over. They’re quick to note that Montana is notoriously arduous to poll and say Tester’s victory in 2012, his last campaign in a presidential year, shows he can win even though the polls have failed him.
Ohio
The race between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Republican Bernie Moreno is even as Tuesday approaches.
A victory in Ohio would expand Republicans’ majority and the race has become the most high-priced contest on the Senate map this year.
Brown had a stable lead that lasted through Labor Day, bolstered by a massive lead on the airwaves, but the wind now appears to be blowing on Moreno’s back. A Average of DDHQ and The Hill polls shows that Moreno gained almost 1 percentage point.
Republican activists have argued that the contest reflects the trend line of Sen. JD Vance’s (R-Ohio) race two years ago. Vance followed then-Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) all summer and into October before overtaking and ultimately defeating him by 6 points.
They also expect a boost from Trump. Officials say an 8-point presidential-level victory should be enough to get Moreno over the finish line.
Brown himself did it allegedly told the donors that he probably can’t overcome an 8-point lead.
“Sherrod is an A [candidate] and Bernie is a C—,” said a GOP operative involved in Senate races. “But we should win it because of gravity.”
The Ohio contest will be the most high-priced Senate race not only this cycle but ever. The 2020 Georgia Senate race between Senator Jon Ossoff (D) and former Senator David Perdue (R) brought in $412 million from that contest set for solar eclipse the $500 million mark.
Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is trying to fight for her survival, while Republican Eric Hovde has brought the race Democrats must win to a virtual dead heat.
Republicans view Wisconsin as one of their best settlement options outside of Montana and Ohio.
Baldwin, who has served two terms, was ahead of Hovde for much of the cycle, but that lead has largely disappeared as Republican-leaning men have returned to the Republican Party. The Cook Political Report rates the contest as a “mistake.”
Still, the substantial question remains whether Hovde can overcome the final hurdle. After the final Marquette University Law SurveyBaldwin has a 2-point lead over the GOP candidate. Perhaps just as importantly, she narrowly overtakes Harris.
Democrats still see a lot of work to do in the home stretch, and that’s focused on defeating Democratic-leaning Milwaukee.
“I think in the final hours, Democrats up and down the ballot will be clearly focused on the city of Milwaukee,” a Wisconsin Democratic activist said, referring to Harris’ rally with Baldwin in the city on Friday and other smaller events.
Republicans, for their part, see Baldwin as a generic Democrat who, despite what the Marquette poll says, will struggle to break away from the top of the voter roll.
The race, similar to several “blue wall” states, also depends on the margin at the top of the ticket, with Hovde likely relying on Trump winning by a margin immense enough to get him across the finish line bring to.
Pennsylvania
Defeating Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) has been at the top of Pennsylvania Republicans’ wish list since his victory over Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) nearly two decades ago, and this week they certainly have their best chance .
Casey held a consistent lead over Republican David McCormick into September, but saw his lead shrink to the level it is at now – almost deadlocked.
While Republicans regularly note that unseating Casey is far from basic, they praise McCormick and his team for how they managed to tie the Democrat to Harris.
The perceived inability to achieve separation is causing anxiety for Democrats as they near the end.
“I always thought Casey would do three points better than the leader. But polls don’t show that. His numbers are the same as Kamala’s,” said a senior Pennsylvania Democrat. “I’m surprised.”
“Even [Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.)]who is not an incumbent is doing better than Bob and has some distance to Harris,” the Democrat continued, saying that if Trump wins Pennsylvania “by 1, then the Senate race could definitely go Republican as well.”
Accordingly Decision Office HeadquartersCasey leads by more than 2 percentage points and has one 72 percent chance in securing a fourth term.
Republicans are also pushing their message more forcefully in the final stretch, spending $16.2 million last week, compared to Democrats’ $11.9 million last week second most high-priced Senate race on the map this cycle.
Michigan
For a time this fall, Republicans believed Michigan was the party’s best chance to win a race outside of Montana or Ohio.
Unlike races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, there is no incumbent in the contest between former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and Slotkin after Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) theoretically decided against seeking a fifth term GOP an advantage that doesn’t exist elsewhere.
However, Slotkin and Michigan have proven to be a tough nut to crack.
Activists on both sides of the aisle have acknowledged in recent days that while the blue walls of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are all up for grabs, Michigan is the least likely of the three to be overturned because the other states have tightened their grip in the last few weeks.
“Democrats in Michigan can win if they hit their numbers,” said a Republican activist involved in the Senate race. “We can be perfect at Michigan, but if they hit their numbers, we lose.”
With Harris, Slotkin has a 3.2 percentage point lead over Rogers perform better There than in both from the other two statesaccording to Decision Desk HQ.
And no Republican has won a Senate race in the Wolverine State in 30 years.
