Early voting is over, and there are some indicators of voter turnout and its demographics. And these indicators provide little, if any, comfort to Democrats. On Monday, the eve of the election, the Trump campaign released some information about these indicators, and if they result in the Democrats’ bottom lip sticking out, there should be a lot of people in the Trump/Vance camp is wearing a substantial grin today.
With early voting over and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats face a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming past elections in absentee and early voting. As we delve deeper into the data, according to their own “data experts,” Democrats are facing a steep decline in urban turnout while we are seeing a rise in rural turnout.
Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina said on MSNBC that “the early voting numbers are a little scary.” What Mr. Messina downplays is that they are much scarier for Democrats. According to NBC NewsPresident Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters planning to cast their ballots on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and political commentator at CNN, David Axelrod told CNN that there is no guarantee that voters will show up for Vice President Harris on Election Day.
Before we start popping the celebratory champagne, let’s take a look at some numbers. Keep in mind that urban cohorts broadly tend to vote Democratic, as do women (not my wife!), while rural voters tend to lean more conservative.
Arizona: Urban voter turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020. Women’s voter turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural voter turnout is up +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Georgia: Urban voter turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020. Women’s voter turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural voter turnout is up +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020
Michigan: Urban voter turnout is down -321,523 votes compared to this point in 2020. Women’s voter turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural voter turnout is up +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020.
North Carolina: Urban voter turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020. Women’s turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural voter turnout is up +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Nevada: The city’s voter turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020. Women’s voter turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020
Pennsylvania: Urban voter turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020. Women’s turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Wisconsin: Urban voter turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020. Women’s turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Remember, we won’t know what this all really means until the final count. But we also know that there has been a fundamental change in early voting. Historically, Republicans have tended to wait until Election Day. This year it doesn’t seem to be the case; There are many signs that Republicans are hitting early voting demanding. From my own experience, standing in line for 90 minutes in early voting in Wasilla a week ago, I can tell you that this was a pretty forceful pro-Trump crowd, men and women alike.
If these trends continue, it could be disastrous for Democrats.
See related: Americans remain divided over the integrity of this historic presidential election
Republican National Committee sues Milwaukee over poll watchers
Mitch McConnell is somewhere smiling as early Nevada voter numbers make Democrats sweat
And consider this: If these indicators and the latest rounds of polling are close to exact, Trump and Vance will win — and the left’s collapses will be glorious, nothing less. It might almost be worth turning on MSNBC to watch.
Almost.
One final note: Based on these findings, an undercover agent at Harris/Walz campaign headquarters was able to secretly record some of the conversations contained therein:
