Alaska is an engaging place for many reasons, not the least of which is political.
When it comes to presidential politics, the Big Country is a red state; The last time we sent our whopping three electoral votes to a Democrat was in the state’s second presidential election in 1964. But we are represented in the House by a Democrat, due in immense part to the whims of Ranked choice voting. And like many states, Alaska is divided into red and blue areas.
Much of the eastern part of the state and Matanuska-Susitna County lean heavily Republican, while the outlying villages, the unorganized county and city of Anchorage, and the capital, Juneau, lean Democratic. Alaska also has some of the more independent-minded people you can meet here.
What to watch out for – POTUS
As for the presidential election, Alaska will win Donald Trump and JD Vance. Any Democratic ambitions to turn Alaska blue are the stuff of fever dreams. There aren’t many presidential elections in Alaska, not least because of our history and because Alaska only has three electoral votes. Several Alaska Survey Research According to polls in September and October, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 7 to 10 points.
So unless something incredibly unexpected happens, Donald Trump and JD Vance will be carrying Alaska. But two other election battles in Alaska will be much closer: our House seat and a ballot measure to repeal ranked-choice voting (RCV).
What to look for – the At-Large House Seat
The incumbent, Democrat Mary Peltola, faces a challenge from Republican Nick Begich III, the latest in a long line of Alaska political Begiches; However, like most of his political relatives, Nick Begich is more Republican than Democrat and has spent much of his adult life in the private sector rather than politics.
Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, was originally sent to Congress in a special election to replace then-recent Republican Don Young, who had represented Alaska for several decades. In 2022, Mary Peltola faced not only Begich, but also Alaska’s former governor Sarah Palin; Peltola’s success in this election is generally attributed to the complicated and confusing nature of the RCV system, as well as the fact that she was the only Democrat facing two Republicans.
This year, however, Nick Begich III is the only Republican on the ballot.
The low poll numbers for this race show that Nick Begich III has a lead narrow leadfrom 4 to 5 percent. Keep in mind that the RCV system will kick in if none of the candidates cross the 50 percent mark on the first ballot and we may not know the results until November 20th.
What to watch for – Ballot Measure 2, repeal of ranked-choice voting
That is the real core issue of this year’s election in Alaska. Ballot Measure 2 simply reads:
An Act to restore political party primaries and single-choice general elections
This bill would eliminate open primaries and ranked-choice general elections.
It would bring back political party primaries and single-choice general elections. The election will take place the same as before election laws were changed by a previous ballot measure in 2022. In the primary, voters choose one party’s ballot. You will vote for a candidate and the winning candidate will be the party’s nominee. In the general election, voters choose a candidate. The candidate with the most votes will win.
This bill would also reinstate party petitions, special runoff elections and other processes that were in effect before 2022. It would restore all election laws, except campaign finance laws, to pre-2022 levels.
Should this initiative become law?
Since this is a elementary vote up or down, we should know the results by Wednesday. (I voted yes.)
Why is this significant? Seven states, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Oregon, have taken ballot measures this election to approve RCV for their elections, but Alaska is voting on one Repeal from RCV. There is a very real problem with this system, indeed with any open primary system, in that it does not allow Republicans and Democrats to select their own candidates to represent them in an election without outside interference.
While the Constitution is still on the issue and state legislatures have broad authority over how elections are conducted, it seems to make perfect sense for Republicans to elect the Republican candidate and Democrats to elect the Democratic candidate. Any other path leads to confusion in the primary process.
Once the results are in, we’ll keep you updated on the details of Alaska and all the battleground states on election night. If you haven’t already, sign up for a VIP account which will give you access to our live blogging about the US Election Night Action. With a Gold account you get access to all Townhall media sites and with a Platinum membership you get all of that plus a variety of feature films and access to our swag shop. Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for 50% discount. I was a Gold member long before I became a contributor here at RedState – believe me, it’s worth it.
