WASHINGTON (AP) — Although the outcome remains uncertain Tuesday night, the 2024 presidential election has already laid bare the depths of a fractured nation as candidates have had to navigate political shifts based on class, race and age under the near-constant threat of misinformation and violence.
Early data suggests that Republican Donald Trump could benefit more from some changes than Democrat Kamala Harris. And the Republican former president may also have benefited from frustrated voters focusing on the economy.
But the biggest takeaways from the election so far may be the most obvious.
The United States is on the verge of electing either its first female president, Harris, or its first president with a felony conviction, former President Trump, whose continued political strength has so far been largely political despite the chaos — much of it of his own making caused costs.
As votes are still being counted across the country, here are some initial takeaways:
With modest shifts, Trump is weakening the Democratic coalition
Black voters – men and women – were the foundation of the Democratic Party, and the Democrats had powerful appeal to Latino voters. The same applies to juvenile voters.
But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of more than 115,000 voters across the country, suggests the groups have shifted toward Trump.
Voters under 30 make up a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. By comparison, about 6 in 10 supported Biden in 2020.
Just over 4 in 10 juvenile voters chose Trump, up from about a third in 2020.
Another shift emerged among Black and Latino voters, who appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were four years ago when they supported Biden, according to AP VoteCast.
About 8 in 10 Black voters supported Harris, compared to about 9 in 10 who supported Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was a slight decline compared to the roughly 6 in 10 who supported Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among these groups appeared to augment slightly compared to 2020.
Trump boasted throughout the fall that he was getting more support from black and Latino men than before.
Harris, meanwhile, targeted more educated voters — including moderate Republicans — who were repulsed by Trump.
It may turn out that the Trump era does not represent a lasting realignment of major party coalitions. But it’s clear that aged coalitions and long-standing ideas about how to win the White House simply don’t work with Trump.
A novel president will assume leadership of a nation with deep divisions
Regardless of whether Trump or Harris ends up behind the Resolute Desk, the 47th president will lead a nation with widening political and cultural divisions and a worried electorate.
AP VoteCast found that about four in 10 voters viewed the economy and jobs as the country’s biggest problem. About two in 10 voters said the main issue was immigration, a core theme of Trump’s argument, and about one in 10 chose abortion, a pillar of Harris’ campaign.
As a reminder of how unusual this election was, about one in four Trump voters said the assassination attempts against him were the most significant factor in their election.
When asked what influenced their vote most, about half of voters cited the future of democracy. That was more than the share of those who answered the same on inflation, immigration or abortion policy. And it cuts across the two major parties: About two-thirds of Harris voters and about a third of Trump voters said the future of democracy was the most significant factor in their vote.
Given the realities of the Trump era and the rhetoric of the campaign, this is not surprising.
Trump refused to acknowledge his defeat in 2020 and watched as his supporters ransacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden’s victory. Trump even mused two days before Election Day that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after repeatedly promising retaliation against his political enemies.
Harris joined other critics at the end of the campaign – including some of Trump’s former White House chiefs of staff – in calling the former president a “fascist.” Trump, meanwhile, called Harris a “fascist” and “communist.”
Trump’s criminal baggage is not an issue for many voters
Incomplete data shows that Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, other pending charges, and any concerns about his most inflammatory rhetoric were simply not enough to deter tens of millions of Americans from voting for him.
According to AP VoteCast, just over half of voters said Harris had the moral character to be president, compared to about four in 10 who said the same about Trump. It’s entirely possible, as Trump has often said during the campaign, that his legal peril actually helped him.
As it stands, Trump may never actually be convicted in a New York white-collar fraud case in which he was convicted of 34 felonies. His sentencing is tentatively scheduled for later this month.
A federal indictment against him has already been dismissed in Florida, sparing him a trial over whether he violated U.S. laws protecting national security secrets. And he has made clear he would employ his power as president to strengthen the federal case against him over his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. That would result in a racketeering case pending in Georgia against Trump and others accused of trying to undermine the 2020 election results.
Relatively few voters said Trump’s legal cases were a major factor in their decision-making in this election. Only about a quarter of Trump voters said the Trump legal cases were an significant factor.
Mars and Venus: Abortion and “bro” politics illuminate differences in gender selection
It was the first presidential election after the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade had repealed and ended a woman’s national right to have an abortion. It was also the first time a Republican presidential candidate overly courted men with a hypermasculine approach.
Both Harris and Trump’s advisers expected a historic “gender gap” between the two candidates, with women making up a clear majority of Harris’ supporters and men making up a clear majority of Trump’s total.
However, according to AP VoteCast, about half of women supported Harris, while about half of men chose Trump. This appears to be broadly consistent with Biden and Trump’s shares in 2020.
VoteCast found that about one in 10 voters said abortion was the country’s top issue, underscoring the newfound importance of an issue that received little attention from voters four years ago.
About a quarter of voters said abortion policy was the most significant factor in their vote, while nearly half said it was an significant factor but not the most significant.
Questions about “election integrity” persist, thanks to misinformation
Trump spent the final days of the election aggressively spreading baseless claims about the integrity of the election, emphasizing that they would only lose if Democrats cheated. Not long after, he claimed on social media, without evidence, that “there was a lot of talk about massive FRAUD in Philadelphia.”
There is no credible information indicating significant voter fraud in this or the last election, despite Trump’s claims to the contrary. A broad coalition of senior government and industry officials, many of them Republicans, concluded that the 2020 election was the “safest” in American history.
At the same time, a misinformation campaign is spreading online, propagating false cases of election fraud.
The FBI issued a statement Tuesday highlighting two examples of the misuse of his name and badges in election videos. One of them contained a counterfeit press release claiming that management at five prisons in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona had manipulated inmate voting and colluded with a political party.
“This video is also not authentic and its content is false,” the FBI said.
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