WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican voters in North Carolina cast ballots in greater numbers than four years ago, while Democratic turnout fell. Together, these two factors led Donald Trump to victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, marking the third time he has led the swing state.
While Trump has consistently won North Carolina, his victory over Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 was much narrower — just over 1%. This year, Trump had a lead of 2.8 percentage points when The Associated Press called the race for him at 11:18 p.m. ET, when it became clear that there were no longer enough outstanding votes in Democratic-leaning areas for Harris could have overtaken his lead.
To understand why Harris didn’t do as well as Biden in the state, consider Nash and New Hanover counties.
Hillary Clinton lost Nash County, which is east of Raleigh, but Biden flipped it four years later. This year, Trump was ahead by 2 percentage points when the race was called. Meanwhile, Harris won in New Hanover County, home to Wilmington, but she didn’t do as well as Biden did in 2020.
CANDIDATES: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green) vs. Randall Terry (Constitution) vs. Cornel West (Justice for All).
WINNER: Trump
POLL CLOSURE: 7:30 p.m. ET.
ABOUT THE RACE:
North Carolina handed Trump his narrowest swing state victory of the 2020 election, where he trailed Biden by about a percentage point but still received less than 50% of the vote. Four years later, the active has become even more complicated.
Democratic presidential candidates have voted for North Carolina only twice since 1968 – most recently in 2008, when Barack Obama won the state. But the state is one of the fastest-growing states, with immigration from other parts of the U.S. the main driver of population growth. Many are college-educated professionals, a demographic that increasingly favors the Democratic Party.
Add to that the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which devastated western parts of the state that are more conservative and still grappling with the devastation, giving Democrats perhaps their best chance to govern the state in years.
WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: Trump did better in North Carolina than he did four years ago — when he also won the race. Harris, meanwhile, failed to garner as much support as Biden. When the race was called, she would have had to capture nearly 60% of the remaining votes, and there simply weren’t enough votes left in Democratic strongholds to meet that threshold.
___
Learn more about how and why the AP chooses winners in U.S. elections in Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press designed to lend a hand understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. For more information about AP’s Democracy Initiative, click here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
