While we are all still celebrating the victories from this 2024 election campaign, it is not too early to look forward. The 2026 midterm elections are not too far away and the 2028 election will be before we know it. But there are other events of great importance on the horizon, and one of them is the 2030 census, the redistricting of congressional seats and the associated allocation of presidential votes.
On Wednesday, Ben Shapiro posted this map on X, and it’s intriguing:
Hello Democrats, I have more unfortunate news for you. This is what the electoral map looks like after the 2030 census. The Republicans are likely to gain TWELVE votes due to population growth. pic.twitter.com/1Qj8iL6a0d
— Ben Shapiro (@benshapiro) November 6, 2024
Ben gave us something to think about – but as is often the case, this blade has two edges. Well – at least it could be that way.
The data presented by Ben Shapiro comes from the American Redistricting Project.
Representation in Congress is reapportioned every ten years following the completion of the decennial census. Each year the Census Bureau prepares the program for estimating population and housing units; The last estimate was published in December 2022.
A weighted average growth rate is applied July 1, 2022 Estimates of the resident population of the United States from the Census Bureau to provide a forecast for distribution in 2030.
Remember, this is a prediction, six years out. Still, if the map is even remotely precise, it has some intriguing implications, such as:
California. California has been a problem for Republicans in presidential elections for decades. California still sends Republican members to the House despite essentially one-party rule in Sacramento. But the former Golden State also presents a difficult-to-overcome monolith of 54 Electoral College votes. Donald Trump was able to overcome this built-in Democratic advantage by breaking through the vaunted Blue Wall like the Kool-Aid Man – the only thing he was missing was the shout of “OH YEAH!” But while in 2028 there are still the current Since there are 54 seats in California, things could look very different in 2032 – this estimate assumes California drops to 49. And where do many of these seats go?
Texas and Florida are each expected to gain four seats, bringing Texas to 44 and Florida to 34. Another six points, one each, go to several other predominantly red states – Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Georgia, Tennessee and North Carolina. Those seats cost one each from the blue states of Oregon and Minnesota, as well as one each from the two swing states that went for Trump this year – Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
But two other deep blue states, Illinois and New York, are expected to lose two and three seats, respectively.
This could be groundbreaking for the next decade.
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But as always, there may well be a catch. As a celebrated person once said: Predictions are challenging, especially about the future – and that possible future is still six years away. A lot can change during this time. Democrats’ efforts to turn Texas blue appear to have completely failed for now, but things are changing. It’s significant to remember that Colorado was still a red state in the ’80s – and Florida was a desperately competitive swing state in 2000. California elected Ronald Reagan governor not once, but twice. Things can change, and we can’t always predict how.
The next census will have a significant impact on American politics in one way or another. But until it happens, we probably won’t know exactly what happens next – until then, it’s all speculation.
