WASHINGTON (AP) — Big changes within miniature groups and miniature changes within immense groups helped return Donald Trump to the White House.
According to AP VoteCast, a wide-ranging poll of more than 120,000 people, the Republican candidate won by sticking to his classic coalition — white voters, voters without a college degree and older voters — while making key gains among younger voters and black and Hispanic male voters nationwide.
His Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, made miniature gains — mostly among college-educated white men who live in urban areas — but that wasn’t enough to offset her losses elsewhere.
Trump increased his share of the youth vote
Compared to his voters four years ago, younger voters made up a larger portion of Trump’s coalition.
This happened because Trump benefited from winning just over half of voters over 45, while Harris won about the same share of voters under 45. But older voters make up a larger share of the electorate than younger ones — and that benefited Trump. About six in ten voters in the 2024 presidential election were over 45 years ancient.
He retained about the same share of older voters as he did in the 2020 presidential election against President Joe Biden, but also made miniature but significant gains among younger voters. In the last election he won four out of ten voters under 45. In this election he won almost half.
If you look at the youngest voters – those between 18 and 29 years ancient – Trump significantly increased his share of the youth vote. Nearly half, 46%, voted for him over Harris, up from 36% in the last election.
Trump won among voters without a college degree
About six in 10 Trump voters did not have a college degree, compared to about half of Harris voters.
The majority of voters in this election did not have a college degree, and most of those voters without a college degree supported Trump. He won 55% of voters without a college degree, compared with about 4 in 10 who chose Harris. That marked a decline for Democrats — in 2020, Biden was roughly tied with Trump among voters without a college degree, receiving 47% of their vote, compared to 51% for Trump.
Trump’s gains among non-college voters resulted primarily from the rightward shift of non-white men without a college degree, as well as younger voters without a college degree overall. However, compared to the last election, he was also able to win over more non-white women without a college degree.
Harris maintained Biden’s support among college graduates, who totaled 44% of voters. A majority of college-educated voters supported Harris, and about four in 10 voted for Trump. But that wasn’t enough because she couldn’t attract the same share of voters without a college degree.
Trump gained white voters while gaining traction with black and Hispanic voters
Trump’s coalition this year, just as in 2020, was overwhelmingly white. However, because of the gains he made with relatively miniature groups, it was more diverse than four years ago.
White voters made up about three-quarters of the electorate, and there were no significant changes nationally — about the same share voted for Trump as in 2020. He made slight gains among Black and Latino voters, and every group made about in this election 1 in 10 voters.
Nationally, about 8 in 10 black voters supported Harris. But that was down from the last presidential election, in which about 9 in 10 went for Biden. And although Harris won more than half of Hispanic voters, that was a slight decline from the roughly 6 in 10 elections that Biden won.
Trump increased his share of adolescent black men, something that helped break into a key Democratic constituency of voters. About three in 10 black men under 45 chose Trump, about double the share he received in 2020. Young Latinos — especially adolescent Latino men — were more receptive to Trump than in 2020. About half of Latino men under 45 voted for Harris, compared with about 6 in 10 who chose Biden.
Harris narrowly won the suburbs, but Trump was ahead in the rural vote
Just like four years ago, Trump drew more strength from rural areas than his Democratic opponent.
Nearly half of voters, 45%, say they live in the suburbs. About half of those voters chose Harris, while 46% chose Trump. Trump won about six in 10 voters who live in miniature towns or rural communities, while Harris won about six in 10 urban voters. These numbers were roughly in line with support during the 2020 election.
Education also played a role here. Trump made slight gains among urban voters without a college degree and among nonwhite voters in urban communities and rural areas. He also attracted slightly more white men without a college degree in urban areas: about 6 in 10 supported him, compared with about half in 2020.
However, these gains for Trump among urban voters were offset by Harris’ improvement over Biden in the number of college-educated white men living in urban areas. She won about two-thirds of that group, up from about half for Biden in 2020.
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AP VoteCast is a survey of American voters conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters lasted eight days and ended when the polls closed. The interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, designed to be representative of the U.S. population; and self-identified registered voters selected from non-probability online panels. The margin of sampling error for voters overall is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. For more details on AP VoteCast’s methodology, visit https://ap.org/votecast.
