School choice will have a supporter in the Oval Office, and the federal Department of Education could be in existential jeopardy after Tuesday’s election.
Republican education initiatives have been stymied at the federal level over the past four years, but that will soon change, according to Republicans took back the White House and the Senate, while possibly retaining the House of Representatives.
President-elect Trump and the Republicans will try to change their animated in reformsbut experts say they face some vital decisions.
“I’m very excited to see who Trump nominates for Secretary of Education and whether he moves in the direction of being a culture warrior. Does he choose someone like? [Moms for Liberty co-founder] Tiffany Justice, or does he choose someone a little more traditionally conservative? I think that will be a signal of the direction things are going,” said Jon Valant, director of the Brown Center on Education Policy at the Brookings Institute.
Trump’s first administrative moves are likely to include pumping the brakes on Biden-era issues directly under his control, such as student loan relief and Title IX.
The Biden administration has provided the most student loan relief in history and is currently defending in court a novel income-driven repayment program that Republicans are fighting.
Trump will likely be under pressure to stop loan forgiveness and change that Title IX Rules Returning to what his administration had in his first term by eliminating novel additions under President Biden that added protections based on sexual orientation and gender identity.
“I think they’ll probably go back to what they did the first time” with Title IX because they really took quite a bit of time to go through what due process should look like and things like that. I mean, it took several years,” said Jonathan Butcher, senior research fellow for education policy at the Heritage Foundation under Will Skillman.
Activists also aren’t forgetting what Trump said during the campaign trail, promising to potentially eliminate the Department of Education in line with the plan of the Project 2025a blueprint for a potential Republican president released last year.
“I think there should continue to be conversations about this. And I think the programs that have proven to be ineffective should be closed, and I think other parts … remain vital, like the Office of Civil Rights,” Butcher said.
The possible downsizing or destruction of the department adds to further concerns about what resources will be available to students, particularly around college affordability as Trump is likely to scale back relief.
“We fear that the Department of Education is aligning itself with the interests of lenders and creditor institutions rather than ensuring that there is equitable access to postsecondary education in our country,” said Sameer Gadkaree, president and CEO of the Institute for College Access and Success .
But a weaker Education Department could also harm another of Trump’s campaign promises: to penalize schools by withdrawing federal funding if they pursue policies undesirable to the president-elect, such as diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) offices.
“If Trump were to eliminate the Department of Education and all federal funding for education, which seems unlikely, but if he did, he would have no power to take away funding from colleges or public schools that have DEI offices or teach what he thinks. “is critical race theory,” said Neal McCluskey, director of the Center for Educational Freedom at the Cato Institute.
“But if there is still federal money for education, and there probably will be, then I don’t think the need exists even if” Republicans control all three branches of government to cut all federal funding, he added.
“I think the Trump administration will try to use this as leverage against schools,” McCluskey said.
Outside of Trump’s direct control, there are certain policies Trump could adopt if a Republican trifecta occurs in Washington.
A Bill of Rights for Parents has become a popular conservative proposal that passed a Republican House in 2021 but failed to make it through a Democratic Senate.
But other measures popular with Republicans at the state level may not translate to the federal government.
Conservatives have made significant progress in passing school choice measures in several states, with Trump floating the idea of school choice in recent weeks National school choice policy.
But observers are looking at the results from last night School choice measureswho lost in all three states where they led, and opposition to the policies from rural Republicans in places like Texas as signs that even in a unified government it would not be an basic victory.
“I think historically, Republican presidents in recent history haven’t had much success getting congressional Republicans involved in major federal education programs. For example, early in Trump’s first term, they pushed for some sort of federal tax credit scholarship program, but that failed because Republicans in Congress were so reluctant to do anything large in education,” Valant said.
“I think there will be some limitations within the Republican Party because I don’t think there is unanimity about what Republicans believe when it comes to federal education and exactly what needs to be done,” he added.
School choice advocates argue that the results of ballot measures, some aimed at changing state constitutions, are a different ball game and not indicative of the movement’s future or the troubles in the federal government.
“I think, particularly if they control the House, there will be a concerted effort to pass a federal school choice law, probably a federal scholarship tax credit.” There’s already legislation in place, and I suspect they would pass that without too much difficulty McCluskey said.
Much is not yet known because the president-elect did not reveal many details about future education policy during the election campaign and the topic was pushed into the background during the presidential debates.
“I think there is a temptation for people to look at who wins the presidential election, who wins control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, and to kind of project that party’s positions onto what voters want. There is a kind of temptation. But at the same time, there were a number of ballot initiatives that looked very different in terms of outcomes, for example in high-profile elections,” Valant said.
“And I think we should be honest that it is very unlikely that the results of the presidential election, Senate races and House races reflect the public’s views on education policy, while we get much more direct evidence of what people think. “on education policy issues,” he added.
