UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United Nations and other international organizations are preparing for four more years of Donald Trump, who famously tweeted for the first time before taking office that the 193 members of the United Nations were “just a club where people come together and talk.” and have a good time.”
In his first term, Trump cut off funding for the U.N. health and family planning agencies, withdrew from its cultural organization and top human rights body, and increased tariffs against China and even longtime U.S. allies, flaunting the World Trade Organization’s rulebook. The United States is the United Nations’ single largest donor, contributing 22% of its regular budget.
Trump’s view of the world body first took shape this week when he named Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations
Stefanik, the fourth-ranking member of the House of Representatives, last month called for a “complete reassessment” of U.S. funding for the United Nations and urged ending support for its agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA). President Joe Biden suspended funding after UNRWA fired several staff members in Gaza suspected of involvement in the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.
Here’s a look at what Trump 2.0 could mean for global organizations:
“A theater” for a conservative agenda
Speculation about Trump’s future policies has already become a parlor game among pranksters in Washington and beyond, and it’s not always basic to read the signals on issues vital to the UN.
For example, Trump once called climate change a hoax and supported the fossil fuel industry, but sidled up to environmentalist Elon Musk. His first administration funded a breakneck effort to find a vaccine for COVID-19, but he has allied himself with anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“The funny thing is that Trump doesn’t really have a strong view of the UN,” said Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group think tank.
Gowan expects Trump will not view the world body as “a place to conduct serious political business,” but will instead employ it as a venue to pursue a conservative global social agenda.
There are clues from his first term. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Paris climate agreement and is likely to do so again after President Joe Biden rejoins.
Trump also led the U.S. to quit the cultural and educational agency UNESCO and the United Nations-backed Human Rights Council, saying they were biased against Israel. Biden returned to both before recently deciding not to seek a second consecutive term on the council.
Trump cut funding to the U.N. Population Agency for Reproductive Health Services, saying it funded abortions. The UNFPA says it takes no position on abortion rights, and the US rejoins.
In his first term, he had no interest in multilateralism – countries working together to address global challenges. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres calls it “the cornerstone” of the United Nations.
A up-to-date “Cold War” world?
The world is different than it was when Trump shouted “America First” when he took office in 2017: wars have broken out in the Middle East, in Ukraine and Sudan. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal has grown, and with it fears about Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.
The UN Security Council – which is even more deeply divided among its enduring veto members Britain, China, France, Russia and the US – has made no progress in resolving these issues. Respect for international law is in ruins in war zones and trouble spots around the world.
“It’s really back to the Cold War era,” said John Bolton, a former national security adviser in the Trump White House.
He said Russia and China were “flight cover” for countries like Iran, which has caused instability in the Middle East, and North Korea, which has helped Russia in its war in Ukraine. There is little chance of reaching agreements on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction or resolving conflicts involving Russia or China, he said.
Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, expects Stefanik to have a “tougher time” because of the variety of issues facing the Security Council.
“What was pretty sleepy during the first Trump term will not be sleepy at all in the second Trump term,” he said.
The Security Council has been powerless since the Russian invasion in February 2022 due to Russia’s veto over Ukraine. And it has failed to pass a substantive resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza because the US supports Israel.
Crisis Group’s Gowan said Republicans in Congress are “angry” about U.N. criticism of Israel’s policy in Gaza and he expects them to push Trump to “impose severe budget cuts on the U.N., and he will do so in order to do so.” to satisfy his base.”
Possible impact on UN work
The everyday relief work of global institutions is also confronted with uncertainties.
In Geneva, home to many U.N. agencies that deal with issues such as human rights, migration, telecommunications and weather, some diplomats are advising wait-and-see caution, saying Trump has generally maintained funding for humanitarian aid in his first term.
Trading was another matter. Trump bypassed World Trade Organization rules and imposed tariffs on steel and other goods from allies and rivals alike. Implementing his up-to-date threats, such as imposing 60 percent tariffs on goods from China, could upend global trade.
Further ideological confrontations may lie ahead, although the international architecture has some built-in safeguards and dynamism.
In a veiled reference to Trump’s victory at the UN climate conference in Azerbaijan, Guterres said the “clean energy revolution is here.” No group, no company, no government can stop it.”
Allison Chatrcyan, a climate change researcher at the AI-Climate Institute at Cornell University, said that while global progress in combating climate change is “moving slowly” thanks to the Paris Agreement and the UN Convention on Climate Change, Trump’s election is “certainly moving forward.” create a sound wave through the system.”
“It is very likely that President Trump will withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement again,” even though under the treaty’s rules that could only happen after a year, Chatrcyan wrote in an email. “The leadership of the United States, which is desperately needed, will disintegrate.”
During COVID-19, as millions of people worldwide became unwell and died, Trump criticized the World Health Organization and cut off funding.
Trump’s second term will not necessarily resemble his first, said Gian Luca Burci, a former WHO legal adviser. “It may be more extreme, but it may also be more strategic because Trump has learned the system that he didn’t really know in the first term.”
If the U.S. leaves the WHO, “that opens the whole Pandora’s Box – depriving the agency of both funding and necessary technical expertise,” said Burci, a visiting professor of international law at the Geneva Graduate Institute. “The entire organization is holding its breath – for many reasons.”
But both Gowan and Bolton agree that there is one UN event Trump is unlikely to miss: the annual meeting of world leaders at the General Assembly, where he has relished the global spotlight.
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Keaten reported from Geneva. Associated Press writer Sibi Arasu wrote from Baku, Azerbaijan.
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This story was first published on November 13, 2024. It was updated on November 15, 2024 to correct that Allison Chatrcyan is not attending the UN Climate Change Conference and that she is a climate change researcher at Cornell University’s AI-Climate Institute, not the director. Quoting Chatrcyan, the AP also incorrectly stated how quickly the measure would take effect if Trump decides to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement. That could be a year, not four.
