WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in New Jersey will decide Tuesday on the candidates vying to succeed Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who is on trial in federal court in New York on corruption charges and has decided not to run in the state’s Democratic primary.
Menendez, who has held the seat for more than 18 years, has said that if acquitted, he would consider running as an independent in the general election.
The ballot also includes the presidential primaries and the primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives.
The prospect of a vacant Senate seat has already had cascading effects in the state. The initial tussle between first lady Tammy Murphy, who has since suspended her campaign, and front-runner Andy Kim led to a ruling that eliminated the party line, at least for the primary. The party line is a ballot design specific to New Jersey that displays candidates endorsed by county parties in one column, which opponents say creates an advantage for party-backed candidates.
After breaking away from the party line, Kim has been able to consolidate his support across the state and will face union leader Patricia Campos-Medina and activist Lawrence Hamm in the primary.
On the Republican side, there are four candidates in the Senate primary: hotelier and leading Republican fundraiser Curtis Bashaw, Navy veteran Albert Harshaw, former Tabernacle Deputy Mayor Justin Murphy and Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner. Serrano Glassner is endorsed by former President Donald Trump.
By running for Senate, Kim is vacating his seat in the 3rd Congressional District, which he has held since 2019. Five Democratic candidates are running to replace him. Kim ousted the Republican incumbent in that district in 2018 in one of the closest races of the midterm elections, but the district was redrawn after the census to be more favorable to Democrats, so the candidate who emerges from the primary will likely have an advantage in the fall.
The other race for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is in the 8th District, where recent Rep. Rob Menendez, son of the current senator, faces a tough challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Bhalla has nearly tied Menendez in the suburban New York district with $1.625 million, while the incumbent has raised $1.642 million.
Trump, a Republican, and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, unofficially sealed their parties’ nominations on March 12. They will both be on the ballot on Tuesday and can win more delegates. For Trump, Tuesday will be his first primaries since he became the first former American president to be convicted of earnest crimes.
In New Jersey, gubernatorial and state elections are held in odd-numbered years, so this primary only features federal races.
Here’s a look at what to expect on primary night:
PRIMARY DAY
The New Jersey state primary and presidential election will take place on Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.
WHAT IS ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will announce vote totals for the Democratic primary as well as 19 contested primaries for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives. Trump is running unopposed in the Republican primary, so vote totals will not be announced. The Democratic ballot includes Biden, anti-abortion activist Terrisa Bukovinac and an undecided alternative in most counties.
WHO CAN VOTE
Registered party members may only vote in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary and vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may vote in both primaries.
Rules for the allocation of delegates
New Jersey’s 126 Democratic delegates are allocated under standard national party rules. 28 non-voting delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are 14 PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” A total of 84 delegates are at stake in the state’s 12 congressional districts, allocated in proportion to the outcome of the election in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for statewide delegates, and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.
The Republican presidential primary is for 12 delegates. All delegates are awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Most states that hold primaries within 45 days of the convention have agreed, under Republican National Committee rules, that their delegates are not tied to a specific candidate. However, New Jersey chose to tie its delegates to a specific candidate, prompting the RNC to reduce the total number of delegates from nearly 50 to just 12.
DECISION NOTES
In the presidential race, the early signs of Biden winning nationally by a margin consistent with the overwhelming majorities we’ve seen in most other elections this year could be enough to determine the winner.
There is an effort to get Democratic voters to vote “Uncommitted” to protest Biden’s policies in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. “Uncommitted” will be on the ballot across the state, except for part of Ocean County, where supporters did not put up enough delegates.
In the 8th Congressional District, Hudson will be the key district to watch. Bhalla is currently the mayor of the district’s fourth-largest municipality, so his lead in that district will be vital to his overall performance in the district. The district also includes Essex and Bergen counties.
In the 3rd Congressional District, most of the votes will come from Burlington County. The district also includes parts of Mercer and Monmouth counties.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory, while making clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explaining why.
In New Jersey, mail-in ballots postmarked on Election Day can arrive up to six days later, meaning the number of mail-in ballots cast in the primary will not be known until June 10. In a close election where the number of mail-in ballots could affect the outcome, the announcement of the election results could be delayed.
There are no automatic recounts in New Jersey, but candidates and voters can request and pay for them. The cost of the recount is reimbursed if the outcome changes.
What is voter turnout and early voting like?
As of May 1, there were 6,549,568 registered voters in New Jersey, 38% of whom were Democrats and 24% were Republicans.
In the 2022 primary election, voter turnout was about 7% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 5% in the Republican primary. In this election, 49% of the votes cast in the Democratic primary and 20% of the votes cast in the Republican primary were cast before Election Day.
As of May 28, a total of 247,807 people had cast their votes before Election Day. About 77% of those votes were cast in the Democratic primary and 23% in the Republican primary.
HOW LONG DOES THE COUNTING OF VOTES USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 primary, the AP first reported results at 8:04 p.m. ET, four minutes after polls closed. Election night counting ended around 2 a.m. ET, after about 90% of the total votes had been counted.
ARE WE ALREADY THERE?
As of Tuesday, there are 41 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 76 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 154 days until the general election in November.
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