Muslim and Arab American voters in the US face an uncertain political future as President-elect Trump prepares to take office later this month.
Muslim Americans, long considered a reliable part of the Democratic base, upset the political calculus in 2024 as anger grew over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war and many left the party altogether.
Meanwhile, many Muslim and Arab Americans say they have no clear political home. They are incensed at Democrats’ refusal to heed their warnings and worried about what a Trump presidency will mean both for them and for conflicts in the Middle East.
“That home is no longer so solid,” said Haris Tarin, the Muslim Public Affairs Council’s vice president of policy and programming, calling the Democratic Party a political “home.” “After 9/11, it was pretty solid in a lot of ways, particularly the civil rights issues, but I think the vote is no longer as solid as many people thought.”
Although President Biden easily won enough delegates during his candidacy to become the presumptive Democratic nominee, and Vice President Harris quickly closed the nomination after Biden left office, in both cases there was significant dissatisfaction among Democratic voters who wanted more choice.
This was organized in particular by those who spoke out against the government’s support of Israel during the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Two major campaigns organized during Biden’s candidacy and continued with Harris’ candidacy were based on this frustration. One encouraged voters to vote “non-binding” in the primary and to remain so unless the candidate agrees to certain policies, such as setting conditions on aid to Israel.
The other was an “abandon” campaign that called on voters to reject the Democratic candidacy altogether. This group ultimately supported Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while the Uncommitted Movement opposed Trump’s candidacy but avoided supporting Harris.
Both groups particularly sought to appeal to Muslim Americans frustrated with the government and those who sympathize with them. They argued that there are warning signs for Democrats because these voters cannot be relied upon to support the electorate as they have reliably done over the past two decades.
The exact breakdown varies depending on the election polls conducted and the location, but overall the results showed a significant change in voting behavior compared to previous elections.
An exit poll from the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) found Stein won nationally among American Muslims with 53 percent of the vote, compared to 21 percent for Trump and 20 percent for Harris. One specifically for Michigan showed Stein at 59 percent, ahead of Trump at 22 percent and Harris at 14 percent.
A pre-election CAIR poll also found Harris struggling with this group, which has voted overwhelmingly for Democrats this century.
After the election, the abandon movement wants to mark this moment as a turning point in political identity so that Muslim Americans feel beholden to neither side.
“Now we will work, so to speak, towards a collective whose loyalty belongs neither to one party nor to any other party, not even to the Greens,” said Hudhayfah Ahmad, who served as a spokesman for the movement. “We want to build a collective that votes based on morals and principles.”
Ahmad said the movement expects Trump to “absolutely disappoint” in his second term and tell people to try a “third way.”
“It’s not about winning – it’s about changing the conversation,” he said. “It’s not about winning. It’s about doing the right thing. Winning is not important because we have sacrificed many of our principles in the name of winning, in the name of the lesser evil, in the name of a…greater good that has never truly been realized.”
Tarin said Muslim Americans want politicians to earn their vote, and the lesson is: “You have to listen to us. You need to hire us.”
“I think this is something new for this community. “Historically, they haven’t had this level of responsiveness in the Democratic Party for a number of years because of civil rights issues,” he said.
Some advocates for Muslim or Arab American organizations cited the frustration those voters felt because no Palestinian American speaker was allowed to address the Democratic National Convention over the summer.
James Zogby, the president of the Arab American Institute, noted that the presence of a Palestinian speaker was supported by numerous people, including the Israeli-American family who spoke at the convention, and that those who blocked him “none had “contact” with the electorate.
Zogby noted that Muslim Americans and Arab Americans are often confused as the same group, even though most Muslims are not Arabs and most Arab Americans are not Muslims.
But both groups drew attention for their frustration and showed less support for the Democratic Party than in the past, posing possible warning signs for the future.
In the Arab-majority city of Dearborn, Michigan, Trump won a majority of votes after Biden won it overwhelmingly in 2020.
The Arab American Institute found that Biden won by 25 points among Arab Americans in 2020, but Zogby said this year the community was likely “evenly divided.” He said every other demographic was represented on the DNC stage, but no one of Arab descent, and the administration was unwilling to change its stance.
“This is a wound in the heart that will take a long time to heal,” Zogby said. “Will it be decisive in elections? I don’t know. It depends on the candidates, and it depends on the policy mix and the other issues at stake.”
Wa’el Alzayat, the CEO of Emgage, which works to educate and mobilize Muslim voters toward civic engagement, noted that while the Muslim community is more divided in its voting, it is still united in its political stance.
“Unlike typical fractures, this was not a dispute between people over their position on gun violence or abortion. Everyone said, “We have to end the war.” We want the hostages to come home. We want humanitarian assistance to be provided,” he said. “But the tactics of how we’re going to get there, there were different approaches and obviously and unfortunately none of it worked, the war is still going on.”
“Obviously the community is now struggling with two problems. One of them is that the war is still going on and Trump is coming back,” Alzayat added.
But the fact that Muslim voters were largely united in the election, despite their final choice, shows how both sides can try to win them over in the future, advocates say.
“I don’t think Democrats have necessarily lost the American Muslim world forever or that Republicans have won it forever,” Tarin said. “I don’t think that’s the case.”
But Tarin found that many Muslim voters did not sufficiently sense the difference between the way Trump would approach the war and the way Biden would approach the war. Trump recently said he wanted to end the war, but reportedly did told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: “Do what you have to do.”
“A lot of people say, ‘Well, I mean, how much worse can Trump be in Gaza?'” Tarin said. “That’s a phrase you hear quite often in American Muslim communities. How much worse can he do? What Biden didn’t do or didn’t allow Netanyahu to do what Trump would allow him to do on this issue is really difficult.”
Uncertainty over future demographics is compounded by renewed concerns about Islamic terrorism following a deadly attack in New Orleans on New Year’s Day that linked a suspect with apparent ties to ISIS. Of course, what this means for the American Muslim community under Trump remains to be seen.
Alzayat said one reason for hope is that Muslim voters have demonstrated their political power and that they need to be taken seriously and listened to.
“If there are 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan and 70 percent of them voted Democrat in 2020 and only 30 percent of them voted Democrat in 2024, that’s an 80,000 vote swing,” he said. “That’s too much scope to ignore.”
