NEW YORK (AP) — Democrats are feeling robust feelings of stress and gloom as they enter the fresh year. And many are wondering whether their party’s commitment to diverse candidates — particularly women — could lead to more political fights in the Donald Trump era.
A recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that a significant number of Democrats believe it could be decades before the United States has its first female president.
About four in 10 Democrats said it was “not very likely” or “not at all likely” that a woman would be elected to the highest office in the land in her lifetime, according to an AP-NORC poll in December. By comparison, about a quarter of Republicans hold the same opinion.
As a political party despairs after a high-profile loss, this finding reflects the deep depression that has gripped the country and their party among Democrats after Trump handily defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee had.
Such concerns may already be shaping the Democratic National Committee’s search for a fresh leader. For the first time in more than a decade, the leading candidates for the post are exclusively white men.
And looking ahead, the party’s pessimism is influencing early talks about the 2028 presidential race.
“We knew that men hated women. The last election showed some of us that we underestimated the extent to which some women hate other women,” said Gilda Cobb-Hunter, a Democratic state representative from South Carolina and former president of the National Black Caucus of State Legislators. “America is as racist and misogynistic as ever.”
Democrats have nominated a woman to run against Trump in two of the last three presidential elections. In both cases, Trump won by a wide margin, over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Harris in 2024. The Democrat who replaced Trump – Joe Biden in 2020 – was a white man.
What made matters worse for many Democrats was the long list of allegations that women made against Trump. He was convicted of sexual abuse in civil court and convicted in a hush-money case against an adult film star. He was once caught on video bragging that he could grab women’s genitals without consent because he was a celebrity.
Nevertheless, Trump narrowly prevailed in all crucial swing states in November. Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was slightly smaller than Biden’s. Trump’s support among white women remained stable, with just over half supporting him, similar to 2020.
Most Democrats — about 7 in 10 — believe 2025 will be a worse year for the U.S. than 2024, the AP-NORC poll found. By comparison, about four in 10 U.S. adults think this way.
The poll also found that Democrats are less personally “happy” or “hopeful” about 2025. Instead, about four in 10 Democrats said “stressed” described their feelings very or very well, while about a third of Democrats said the same about the word “gloomy.”
Meanwhile, the majority of Republicans and conservatives described “happy” as how they feel at least very well about 2025. A similar stock said the same about “hopeful.”
“It’s so dark out there right now,” said poll respondent Rachel Wineman, a 41-year-old Democrat from Murrieta, California. “My family and I are circling the wagons, trying to keep our heads down and survive.”
There are early signs that this loss raises questions about the current Democratic Party’s central commitment to supporting minority groups, including women, while pushing diverse candidates into positions of power.
Some Democratic leaders fear that Trump’s robust success among white, working-class voters — and his modest electoral gains among blacks and Latinos — could signal a political realignment that could alter the political landscape in the coming years if the party doesn’t change its approach.
The election of a DNC chair offers the first indication of the party’s direction during the second Trump administration. The election is three weeks away and the leading candidates are Wisconsin state chairman Ben Wikler and Minnesota state party chairman Ken Martin.
Either would be the first white person in office since Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine left office in 2011.
Martin and Wikler are considered robust frontrunners in a field of eight candidates who qualified for a DNC candidate forum on Saturday, the first of four such meetings before the Feb. 1 election at the committee’s winter meeting in suburban Washington.
Two candidates are women: former presidential candidate Marianne Williamson and Quintessa Hathaway, a former congressional candidate, educator and civil rights activist.
Outgoing Chairman Jaime Harrison, who is Black, said in a statement that the committee is well-positioned to compete in future elections and push back against Trump’s policies.
“Democrats are ready to hold him accountable,” Harrison said. “We will continue to invest in all 50 states to build power from the local level up and elect Democrats across the country.”
Meanwhile, some rank-and-file Democrats in early primary states are openly wondering whether the party’s next candidate for the White House would be at a disadvantage if that person is not a straight white man who is a Christian. Barack Obama is the only black person elected president in American history.
New Hampshire Democrat Thalia Flores said Harris’ loss made her question the political viability of rising stars like gay Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania’s Jewish Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan’s most prominent governor, Gretchen Whitmer. A woman is expected to consider a presidential run in 2028.
“Kamala’s loss may also impact this type of candidate, because if you’re not mainstream white, you may not be a good choice,” Flores said, suggesting that such concerns would not affect her personal vote in the next presidential primary. “It’s a shame we’re even having this conversation.”
She added: “The American people don’t seem to be able to support a woman.”
Overall, the AP-NORC poll found that about a quarter of Americans said it was extremely or very likely that the country would elect a woman president in their lifetime. About 4 in 10 U.S. adults said it was somewhat likely and about a third said it was not very likely or not at all likely.
Such feelings are consistent among Americans regardless of age or gender, although black Americans are more likely than white or Hispanic adults to say it is “not very likely” or “not at all likely” that something will happen to them in their lifetime.
Sarah Burnett, a 49-year-old tiny business owner from Edgerton, Missouri, said she is “scared” about how the country will develop in 2025.
“We’re all not looking forward to the next four years,” she said.
As for whether she believes the U.S. will elect a woman in her lifetime, she said she tries to be positive.
“Yes, there will be sexism, misogyny, the patriarchy and all of that. … But we had a black president,” Burnett said. “So yes, I would expect a woman to be elected. Do I have high expectations? NO.”
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Sanders reported from Washington.
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The AP-NORC poll of 1,251 adults was conducted December 5-9, 2024. A sample was used from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is intended to be representative of the US population. The overall sampling error rate for adults is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
