Vulnerable Democrats are avoiding talking about former President Trump’s sensational 34-count conviction last week, fearing political backlash in their “red” states and constituencies.
These leading Democrats – who represent swing districts and states where trust in the criminal justice system is low and Trump’s legal troubles have only further strengthened his voting base – warn that focusing on the New York convictions could backfire politically for them.
“I try to stay away from anything that isn’t a unifying issue,” said Rep. Mary Peltola (Alaska), a leading Democrat, when asked if she worried that discussion of the conviction might turn off some voters.
The reactions of lawmakers on the first day back at the Capitol after the jury found Trump guilty underscore both Trump’s extraordinary ability to weather scandals and the Democrats’ tender handling of his capital crime convictions, particularly the thorny question of whether a major party presidential candidate should serve a prison sentence.
On one hand, the Democrats’ response is a no-brainer. Throughout the process, they agreed that they trusted the justice system, would respect the outcome, and that no one was above the law – not even a former president. Now that Trump has been convicted, they are once again bowing to the justice system.
“That’s for someone else to decide,” said Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) when asked whether Trump should go to prison.
Senator Bob Casey (Republican of Pennsylvania) echoed the sentiments of his swing state colleague.
“That’s up to the judge,” Casey said. “I have no opinion on that.”
On the other hand, the convictions pose a dilemma for Democrats: They must decide whether to make the crimes the focus of their campaign message or to turn away from the case and focus on other issues that more directly affect voters, such as the economy.
“If someone currently running in a battleground state wants to talk about Trump, they’re not going to talk about it in a New York courtroom,” said a Democratic official who works in a swing state. “They want to talk about how another Trump presidency would affect their lives.”
In some states, the election campaign is aimed at the smallest sections of voters, many of whom are not necessarily politically interested.
“If I’m running in a swing state, I want to say Trump is going to repeal the Affordable Care Act and kick you off your health insurance, and the Democrat is not going to do that,” the party official continued. “Everyone involved in the fight for democracy already knows who they’re voting for. … For a swing state [candidate] talking about it is a waste of time.”
“It’s the friend who talks the least and is the least interested in politics,” the agent continued. “That’s the voter we all want to reach… and he doesn’t care about this. He cares about rent, food, and access to health care.”
A second Democratic official lively in a contested race added that while the party generally views the conviction as a positive for itself given past polling, Democrats in contested races do not necessarily feel they need to be the direct messengers on the issue.
“Of course we want the President [ticket] to be successful in our state, but it is not necessarily our fight to go to court,” the strategist said.
But there are plenty of signs that Democratic strategists see an opportunity in Trump’s legal troubles. On the House side, the Democrats’ campaign arm wasted no time after the conviction, sending out an email highlighting 23 vulnerable GOP incumbents who “supported the now-convicted criminal.”
A third Democratic official specifically cited Reps. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) and Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), who hold two of the most hotly contested seats among Democrats, as prime examples, pointing out that the New Jersey Republican had announced hours before the verdict that he would vote for Trump.
“All of these people should have to ask themselves whether they are willing to support a convicted felon as president,” they said.
Some Democrats said the convictions offered the party a chance to draw a moral contrast between Trump and President Biden – and to shine a spotlight on Republicans’ attacks on the U.S. justice system.
“I want to address this in this context: It is quite shameful that Republicans have such distrust of the judiciary,” said Representative Ami Bera (D-Calif.).
But Bera also stressed that nearly a decade after Trump’s arrival on the political stage, voters know exactly who he is and what he has done, suggesting that Democrats would be more successful if they focused on concrete issues.
“The convictions don’t really reveal anything we didn’t already know about Trump’s character. So I think a lot of that is already established,” Bera said. “We have a lot of positive issues to address.”
Mychael Schnell contributed.
