CHARLESTON, W.Va. (AP) — Every election cycle, it seems, Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia tries to find the best path for himself, dragging both political camps — and an entire electorate of his home state — along for a bumpy ride.
With five months to go before the general election, he is still not a declared candidate for office, but he has once again entered the guessing game. And there is still time, albeit increasingly limited, to consider possible candidacies for governor, the Senate or even the U.S. presidency.
Having recently switched his party affiliation from Democrat to Independent, Manchin, 76, is content to leave the Senate in January “and, if you will, live a more normal life.”
But in true Manchin fashion, he leaves the door ajar.
“Never say never, because you never know,” he said.
While the rut he has chosen is not necessarily surprising, voters who have not completely lost interest are once again wondering where Manchin is headed. One who has tried to keep up, retired West Virginia Wesleyan University political history professor Robert Rupp, brings his own metaphor to the discussion.
(*5*)
“It’s a dancing dervish,” said Rupp.
Career crossroads
Manchin has made a number of career-changing moves recently.
Manchin announced his party switch on June 1, saying he wanted to “continue fighting for America’s reasonable majority.” Manchin had been thinking about it at least since last August.
In November, Manchin announced that he would not run for re-election as a Democrat.
Then in December, Manchin hinted at a Washington Roast about a possible third-party bid for the White House, joking that the nation could exploit someone a little younger than the leading candidates. But in February, Manchin announced he would not run for president because he did not want to be a “killjoy.”
Manchin had been in the Senate since 2010, when he won a special election following the death of Robert C. Byrd during Manchin’s second term as governor. He has been there ever since, although he considered returning to his home state to run for governor again in 2016. Instead, he supported Jim Justice, who won as a Democrat, before switching to the Republican Party himself months after taking office.
Rather than run for governor again in 2019 in the 2020 election and face Justice, who had become a rival, Manchin chose to remain a senator. That decision proved fruitful, as he emerged as a key voice and indispensable dealmaker for Democrats in the closely divided Senate. Major Biden administration initiatives on energy and infrastructure likely would not have come to fruition without his approval.
OTHER CANDIDATES FOR GOVERNORSHIP
When Manchin switched parties last month, people sat up and whispered questions arose: What does he plan to do now? The logistics of several possible paths forward offered a glimmer of possible answers.
When he registered as an independent candidate, Manchin barely met West Virginia’s deadline for candidates to declare their political affiliation – 60 days before the Aug. 1 deadline to run in this year’s election. That has fueled speculation he might seek a third term as governor, a position in which he was popular. He received nearly 64% of the vote in his first term in 2004 and 70% in his second term in 2008.
West Virginia has been heavily Republican ever since. Former President Donald Trump won the state overwhelmingly in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Both houses of the state legislature now have a two-thirds Republican majority. About 40% of registered voters are Republican, compared to 30% Democrats and about 25% with no party affiliation.
If Manchin tries to run for governor again, he faces a recall election with Republican Patrick Morrisey and an unpleasant campaign showdown with Democrat Steve Williams, the mayor of Huntington and the party’s chosen candidate. In the 2018 race for the U.S. Senate, Manchin defeated Morrisey by just over 3 percentage points. In overdue May, Manchin publicly announced that he would not run for governor and would support Williams.
In addition to the reversal on that statement, Manchin would have to once again grapple with the continued popularity of Trump in West Virginia, whose name will be at the top of West Virginia’s ballot. Morrisey, the state’s attorney general, is a staunch Trump supporter who became popular in Appalachia for making sweeping promises to put coal miners back to work despite a bleak economic outlook for the industry.
Trump did not bring the industry back. Coal jobs in West Virginia fell from 11,561 at the start of his presidency to 11,418 at the end of 2021, slowing but not stopping the coal industry’s steep decline. Still, Manchin and Democrats were often attacked as enemies of coal in a state where it was still widely viewed as a cornerstone of the economy.
Despite a long line of legendary politicians in West Virginia’s history, only two governors have been elected to three terms: Republican Arch. A. Moore Jr. in 1968, 1972 and 1984, and Republican Arthur Boreman in 1863, 1864 and 1866, when the state was in its infancy.
Senator for the third time
With Manchin out of the Senate race, Republicans are brimming with confidence that Justice can win his West Virginia seat. If all other races across the country stayed with their current parties, that alone would be enough to retake the majority next year. And Democrats are defending 23 seats, including five held by independents, compared to just 10 seats for Republicans.
A decision by Manchin to re-enter the race as an independent would also be tricky, as it would mean a duel with both Justice and Democrat Glenn Elliott, whom Manchin supported in the May primaries.
Justice and Manchin clashed after Justice switched parties eight months into his first term as governor in 2017. Justice made the announcement onstage with Trump during a rally in Huntington. Justice, a wealthy businessman who owns several coal mines, is a staunch supporter of Trump and won his endorsement.
After Manchin became an independent, Elliott said on X (formerly Twitter) that he had no reason to believe Manchin had any interest in the Senate race.
A Senate campaign could be Manchin’s toughest in four decades in state politics — and his most high-priced. Manchin has raised $11.7 million, including $8.5 million in cash, compared to $3 million for Justice, including $931,000 in cash, and $125,000 for Elliott, including $65,000 in cash, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission records.
OTHER OPTIONS
In April, the leadership of No Labels, a national nonpartisan organization, ended its search for a presidential candidate. Manchin was seen as one of the most promising candidates who could capitalize on widespread dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden and Trump.
If Manchin were to exploit his status as an independent to change course again and run as an independent presidential candidate, he would have to move quickly. He has already missed the general election filing deadline in seven states, and 10 more states are facing deadlines in June and July, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Another option lurks in the shadows as the senator ponders his future. In Morgantown, West Virginia University President Gordon Gee plans to retire when his contract expires next June, and the search for his successor is still in the early stages.
Manchin, a WVU graduate, has not commented on speculation that he might be interested in Gee’s job. A spokeswoman dodged questions about it last year. But in the kind of language Manchin clearly likes to see while others speculate about his path forward, the Dominion Post reported that the university said its search will have “no preconceived outcomes or candidates.”
___
Associated Press reporter Mary Clare Jalonick in Washington contributed to this report.
