The just-concluded European elections marked another milestone for far-right parties on the continent. They made gains in many of the 27 EU countries, and the surprising scale of their victories is shaking the political establishment there and attracting attention in the United States.
The parties’ success embarrassed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had to outflank his own party, and prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call early parliamentary elections.
With votes still being counted on Tuesday, the right’s gains are just the latest example of how discontent with globalization and immigration has fueled a conservative, populist backlash in wealthy Western democracies. Former President Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory was the clearest example of this, but it’s unclear whether the trends that drove the right in Europe will enable him to win another term in November.
Because, in addition to the striking parallels, there are also significant differences between the dynamics in Europe and the US. And even after the gains made by the right in the recent European elections there, the political centre will probably still retain control of the EU Parliament.
“We are clearly at a point where the wind can blow from either direction,” said Charlies A. Kupchan of the Council on Foreign Relations.
WHAT HAS THE RIGHT BEEN DOING IN EUROPE?
There are different political dynamics in all EU countries, and elections to the European Parliament are often an opportunity for voters in each country to symbolically vote against those in power in their own country, as they are voting for people who will take office in Brussels rather than in their own capital. There is also a global backlash against incumbents that appears to have no ideological basis.
But the resurgence of the far-right in Europe is more than symbolic or coincidental. It is driven by frustration over the refugee crisis in the EU – a frustration that the far-right likes to amplify on online platforms – as well as regulations on climate change and other issues that hit rural, less educated populations harder. Economic growth in much of Europe has stagnated since the 2008 global recession, further fuelling dissatisfaction with the status quo.
In Italy and Slovakia, far-right or populist parties are currently at the head of the government, and in other countries such as Finland, Sweden and soon the Netherlands they are part of governing coalitions.
Generally, the right on the continent finds its strongest support among rural voters, who have lower levels of education than urban voters who are more comfortable with the economic and social changes of globalization. All of this probably sounds very familiar to US voters, where there have been similar divisions between Trump’s Republicans and President Joe Biden’s Democrats.
IS TRUMP RIDING THE SAME WAVE?
Trump has embraced the European right, particularly Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose self-described “illiberal democracy” has made him an icon of conservative populists who advocate immigration limits and LGBTQ+ rights. He has supported several European conservative populists in their quest for national leadership, and some of Trump’s top advisers have ties to the movement across the Atlantic.
One of these former advisers, Steve Bannon, described the EU elections in his podcast on Monday as “a tectonic plate shift”.
“That’s like here in the United States, that’s what MAGA is doing,” Bannon said, using the acronym for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement. “MAGA is pulling us further to the right. And I think that’s not just a good thing, it’s necessary for the nation and necessary for the world.”
Trump’s victory in 2016, despite losing the majority of votes, was partly due to his promise to build a wall between the US and Mexico to limit immigration. This year, he has sharply criticized Biden for the increasing number of migrants crossing the southern border and seeking asylum in the US. Biden, aware of the sensitivity of the issue, has moved to the right on immigration by issuing novel regulations that would close the border if the number of people crossing the border becomes too high.
There are, however, some key differences between Trump and European populists, the most significant of which is their record on democracy. Trump sought to compensate for his loss to Biden in 2020, culminating in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. He has parlayed this cause into his re-election campaign, continuing to repeat the lie that he was cheated out of re-election by widespread voter fraud and calling those who stormed the Capitol “warriors” during a rally in Las Vegas on Sunday.
Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University and co-author of the book “How Democracies Die,” says this stands in keen contrast to European populists.
“They are much less overtly authoritarian than Trump,” Levitsky said. “None of these guys have rejected election results.”
That’s a political vulnerability for Trump, who continues to make false claims that the 2020 election was rigged. Biden attacked him relentlessly on Jan. 6, signaling he will make preserving democracy the core of his campaign. Trump’s supporters, who have targeted state election offices, lost in every swing state in 2022, and Democrats are hoping the same active will protect Biden this year.
Kupchan said Trump’s voters may be angrier and more desperate than their European counterparts because the continent has a hearty social safety net.
“One reason the middle has held in Europe and not the U.S. is because Americans can fall even further,” he said. “If you work in Europe and you lose your job on the VW production line, you’re suffering, but you’re not in as much trouble as someone in Michigan.”
Trump has the strongest support among older voters, unlike European populists who, according to experts, do better with younger voters. And in America’s two-party system, the current election comes down to a game with voters choosing between Biden and Trump. The race could come down to who voters dislike the least and whether third-party candidates who cannot gain political influence in the race can siphon off enough votes to unseat either of the two major party candidates.
A Trump victory is by no means inevitable. A look at Europe shows that conservative populism has its limits.
THE RIGHTS CAN ONLY EXTEND TO A TOTAL
The success of the right in Europe is not insignificant. Last year, Poland’s conservative-populist government lost power because voters opted for a center-left coalition. Britain’s exit from the EU was a victory for conservative populism, but the conservative Tory party is likely to suffer major losses in the upcoming election, even if the opposition Labour party has no intention of reversing Brexit.
Even in the centre of the power of conservative populism in Europe, in Hungary, dissatisfaction with the incumbent government is growing.
In countries where the right took power, such as Italy, where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party doubled the number of its members in the European Parliament, it was not a radical break. Meloni has kept her country in the coalition that supports Ukraine in its fight against Russia. While she has cracked down on accepting migrants crossing the Mediterranean, she and her neo-fascist Brothers of Italy party have not made any fundamental changes to the country’s political and economic structure.
Matthias Matthisj, professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University, said Italy could be an example of how populists govern in Europe.
“They will impose stricter regulations on Muslim prayer and you can now drive faster on the highway,” said Matthisj. “But on the big issues – the budget, foreign policy – these populists can only come to power if they stay in the middle.”
In contrast to Trump, who has called for a significant change in US policy and the way the federal government works if he wins the election. Some analysts believe that a Trump victory could give European populists like Meloni the opportunity to move even further to the right.
Even after the EU elections, radical change is unlikely. The Christian Democrats of EU President Ursula von der Leyen moved to the right to counter the populist upsurge and remain by far the largest party in the 720-member body. In Europe, the center is still holding its ground – it has just moved to the right. Whether that will also happen in the USA in November is the next question.
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Associated Press writer Ali Swenson in New York contributed to this report.
