WASHINGTON (AP) — Incumbents’ dominance in the 2024 congressional primaries will be put to the test Tuesday in Virginia.
As Democrats head to the polls in Virginia to fill two open seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, Republican voters could replace House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good, who faces a primary in the 5th Congressional District. Former President Donald Trump endorsed his challenger, state Senator John McGuire, underscoring the balancing act that the most ideologically keen members of Congress must perform to stay on Trump’s side. Good endorsed one of Trump’s early challengers, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, in this year’s presidential primary.
If Good loses, he would be the first incumbent in the House to face a primary this year (except for one race in which two incumbents faced each other due to redistricting).
Good was also one of eight Republicans who voted to remove then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. McCarthy has allies in the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group that says it is “committed to working for common-sense legislation.” The super PAC affiliated with those House Republicans, Defending Main Street, aired ads supporting McGuire, while a super PAC affiliated with the Freedom Caucus aired ads supporting Good.
Good previously secured the nomination for his seat at a party convention where only state delegates vote for the candidate. This is Good’s first time running for the seat in a customary primary where voters are drawn from more than just the party’s most dynamic members.
Although Trump supports his opponent, Good campaigned on his loyalty to Trump and even appeared at his trial in New York. Trump won the 5th District easily in 2020 and 2016.
In the 7th Congressional District, Democrats will choose their candidate to replace Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor in 2025. Eugene Vindman, a former National Security Council ethics lawyer, had raised about 15 times as much as his nearest rival as of May 29. Vindman is popular among Democratic activists because he was involved in reporting on a 2019 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that led to Trump’s first impeachment.
The Republican primary pitted members of the House Freedom Caucus, who support Marine veteran Cameron Hamilton, against members of the House leadership, who support Army veteran Derrick Anderson.
In the 10th district, Democrats are choosing a successor for Representative Jennifer Wexton, who is not seeking re-election after being diagnosed with a brain disease. A dozen Democrats are running to replace her.
In the 2nd District, two Democrats are running against Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans, in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won against Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Navy veteran Missy Cotter Smasal is the primary’s leading fundraiser, with support from former governors Ralph Northam and Terry McAuliffe, as well as Spanberger and Wexton. She is running against constitutional lawyer Jake Denton.
In the U.S. Senate, Trump endorsed Marine veteran Hung Cao as the Republican candidate. Cao is running against Scott Parkinson, who is backed by Good and several U.S. senators and representatives. Constitutional law expert and conservative columnist Jonathan Emord had spent nearly $900,000 on the primary by the final filing deadline, just ahead of Parkinson, who spent $600,000, but well behind Cao, who spent nearly $2.4 million. Army veteran Eddie Garcia and Marine veteran Chuck Smith are also on the ballot.
Here’s what you can expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primary will take place on Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
WHAT IS ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will cover 10 contested elections: six Democratic primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, three Republican primaries for the House of Representatives and one Republican primary for the U.S. Senate.
WHO CAN VOTE
Virginia has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can choose to participate in a party’s primary.
DECISION NOTES
In the 5th Congressional District, Good relies on the central and western parts of the district around Lynchburg and Campbell County, where he previously served on the Board of Supervisors. In the State Senate, McGuire represents counties in the northeastern part of the district, including Powhatan and Goochland Counties and parts of Hanover County. A potentially decisive factor in the race is which candidate wins the more moderate and better educated areas around Charlottesville and parts of Albemarle County.
In the 7th District, four current and former elected officials from Prince William County, which makes up more than a third of the district and could be a deciding factor in the race, are in the Democratic field: former state delegate Elizabeth Guzman, state delegate Briana Sewell and county Board of Supervisors members Andrea Bailey and Margaret Franklin. Two other Democratic candidates, military veterans Carl Bedell and Cliff Heinzer, have not held office.
In the Republican primary, Anderson was the leading Republican fundraiser through the final filing deadline with $1.1 million. Hamilton raised $722,000.
Loudoun County represents the majority of the 10th Congressional District, which also includes parts of Prince William County and a compact portion of Fairfax County. State Delegate Dan Helmer is the biggest fundraiser in the race. Helmer and State Senator Jennifer Boysko represent part of Fairfax County, as does former Speaker of the state House of Representatives Eileen Filler-Corn.
Wexton endorsed Senator Suhas Subramanyam, a former Obama administration policy adviser who represents parts of Loudoun County. Delegate David Reid also represents Loudoun County. Loudoun County resident Krystle Kaul is a political newcomer but has loaned her campaign more than $500,000.
Former Virginia Secretary of Education Atif Qarni lives in Manassas, which is part of the district, and State Delegate Michelle Maldonado represents Manassas, Manassas Park and part of Prince William County.
There are a handful of other candidates on the ballot that could further divide the election result. This would lower the minimum threshold that a candidate needs to win a majority of votes and make the election campaign particularly unpredictable.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory by the candidates. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain the reasons why.
In Virginia, a candidate can request a recount if the gap between two candidates is less than one percentage point.
WHAT ABOUT VOTER TURNOUT AND PRE-SELECTION?
As of June 1, there were 6,230,102 registered voters in Virginia. Voters in Virginia are not registered with a political party.
In the 2022 Republican primaries, turnout in the 2nd and 7th congressional districts was 7% of registered voters. In the Democratic primary in the 8th district, turnout was 10%.
In the 2024 presidential election, 44% of the vote was cast in the Democratic primaries and 16% of the Republican vote was cast before Election Day.
As of Wednesday, a total of 92,600 advance votes had been cast in the Democratic primary, with about 69% by mail-in ballot and 31% by in-person absentee ballot. In the Republican primary, 57,881 advance votes had been cast, with 55% by mail-in ballot and 45% by in-person absentee ballot.
HOW LONG DOES THE COUNTING OF VOTES USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 District 7 Republican primary, the AP first reported results at 7:10 p.m. ET, 10 minutes after polls closed. Election night counting ended at 9:15 p.m. ET, after more than 99% of all votes had been counted.
ARE WE ALREADY THERE?
As of Tuesday, there are 140 days left until the parliamentary elections in November.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
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AP writer Matthew Barakat in Falls Church, Virginia, contributed to this report.
