Virginia last supported a Republican for president in 2004, when the Old Dominion Electoral College votes went to George W. Bush. Since then, the state has been a sheltered bet for Democratic candidates, but then, in 2021, something happened: A Republican upstart named Glenn Youngkin ran against former Gov. Terry McAuliffe and won, becoming Virginia’s first Republican governor since 2009. That doesn’t seem like all that long ago that Democrats held the governorship of a state, but Virginia has become a pretty reliably Democratic state in that time.
But Governor Youngkin is doing quite well in the Old Dominion. His The approval ratings are goodhe’s youthful, charismatic, and has a viable replacement in Winsome Sears should he decide to take a modern job — say, running for vice president. Now, perhaps in part because of Youngkin’s success, the Trump campaign is seriously considering flipping Virginia red in the next 24 hours. Presidential election 2024:
Whether Virginia supports Donald Trump or Joe Biden shouldn’t even be a discussion.
The state has not supported a Republican president since George W. Bush in 2004.
But early polls showing Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, narrowing the Democratic president’s lead have been a wake-up call for Democrats in Virginia, who acknowledge headwinds from voters unhappy with Biden’s lead. Republicans say Biden is in grave trouble if Virginia even comes close to being in Trump’s hands. time-honored swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Wall Street Journalis missing an critical point here, in my opinion: It’s likely that voters aren’t just unhappy with Biden’s leadership (or lack thereof), but also with his mental health. The president’s progressive physical and mental decline will become more and more apparent the closer we get to the election — even worse for the Biden camp are the debates, where confused venerable Joe faces an energetic Trump bent on a score-settling. Biden won’t have notecards or a teleprompter to focus.
And there is another factor: Rumor has it that the Republican governor of Virginia is on Donald Trump’s shortlist for the vice presidency.
See also: Stories from McCabe: If Trump picks Youngkin, he’ll secure a 12-year ticket
Shocking polls: Trump overtakes Biden in two Republican states that have not supported Republicans in the presidential election for decades
Republicans in Virginia believe (of course) that there is a possibility here:
“I think Virginia could be a real opportunity for Republicans,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group that supports centrist Republicans in the House. “Northern Virginia is so Democratic, and that’s where the numbers are, so I’m not there yet,” she said of Trump’s victory. But she added, “The Trump team is doing the right thing, and let’s see how it all plays out.”
According to a mid-May Roanoke College poll, Biden and Trump are tied in a head-to-head comparison in Virginia, with 42% approval each. When other candidates are included, Biden has a two-percentage-point lead over his rival. A Fox News Voter Analysis poll of registered voters conducted June 1-4 also found Biden and Trump tied.
This is a substantial task. In 2020 Joe Biden overwhelmed Donald Trump by 10 points in Virginia. But as the song goes: times are changing. Joe Biden now has a record to defend – and it’s not a good one.
While the polls are close, and Trump has a history of outperforming polls, I’m still skeptical about the chances of flipping Virginia, but if I were advising the Trump campaign—a role no one has yet approached me for—I’d say their best chances are to look at the Old Dominions Election Map for 2020The challenge is elementary: win enough votes from rural areas, tiny towns and suburbs to defeat Richmond, the Norfolk/Virginia Beach area and the deep blue suburbs of Washington DC.
Like so many other states, Virginia is a substantial red state with a few densely populated blue dots. A few of Trump’s time-honored substantial rallies on the outskirts of those blue dots, along with a vigorous campaign in red counties, might be enough – just maybe – to turn the tide. Winning Virginia’s electoral votes would require changing the minds of many of those suburbanites, and the right approach, focusing on jobs, schools, and tackling immigration, might be the right approach – not just in Virginia, but in places like Wisconsin and Michigan. Putting Glenn Youngkin on the ballot might be enough to win the day.
One thing is for sure: watch Virginia on election night. Since it’s an eastern state, results should be in by early evening, and if Trump does flip Virginia, we’ll know early on that two things are happening: first, a Trump landslide victory is imminent, and second, Democrats are in for a long, tough night.
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