The highly anticipated Suffolk poll of black voters in two major swing states has been released and the news is not exactly good for Joe Biden. The results show the incumbent doing significantly worse this time than in 2020.
In the state of Michigan, Biden received only 55 percent of the total black vote. Donald Trump received 15 percent and the independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West also received 15 percent.
🇩🇪 2024 EG: [Among Black voters]
Pennsylvania
🟦 Biden: 56%
🟥 Trump: 11%
🟨 West: 8%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
🟩 Stone: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 13%
—
Michigan
🟦 Biden: 55%
🟥 Trump: 15%
🟨 West: 8%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟩 Stone: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 15%
—
76% of respondents in each state said they…— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 16, 2024
The Biden lead is likely to rise as the undecided return home, but that’s not the compelling thing about this poll. What’s most relevant is the shift, and in Michigan, black voters voted six percentage points more for Trump.
The situation in Pennsylvania is somewhat better, but still represents a loss for Biden overall. In 2020, eight percent of respondents voted for Trump. In the current poll, 11 percent of black voters now support him. In addition, four years ago, 76 percent of all respondents voted for Biden. The president is currently stuck at 55 percent. Even if all undecided voters vote for him, he is still six percentage points tiny of his previous result.
SEE ALSO: Trump overtakes Biden in two blue states
What is the reason for these numbers? Biden’s policies topped the list of Reasons Second is the president’s age and mental capacity. This is doubly bad news, as neither aspect can change before the election. It is too overdue to take major policy initiatives or to produce results, and of course Biden will not get any younger before our eyes.
A popular Republican argument, namely Trump’s criminal convictions and black voters’ sympathy for him, was not supported by the numbers. A higher percentage of black voters disagreed with the idea that the former president was unfairly targeted. than to support Biden. Republicans probably shouldn’t count on this being a decisive issue. As shown above, it’s policy failures and Biden’s senility that will change minds.
There is one caveat to this poll, however, and that is low-propensity voters. While the poll shows that 76 percent of black respondents voted for Biden in 2020, polls after the 2020 election show the actual number was 92 percent. That means a significant portion of the president’s decline is due to up-to-date voters who didn’t show up last time. Will they this time? Because if they don’t, those poll results suddenly become pretty irrelevant.
That will be Trump’s challenge going forward. Being ahead in the polls is great, but turnout is crucial. He can have the best poll numbers in the world, but if the low-turnout voters who make the difference don’t show up, then none of that matters. Since it’s a presidential election year, turnout is expected to be high, and the data suggests that this should benefit Trump. If this were a midterm election, the situation would be far more uncertain.
