The 2024 election cycle is gathering pace: Summer is officially about to begin and a handful of major political events are just around the corner.
This summer, both President Biden and former President Trump will officially become their respective parties’ nominees for the White House, see the first criminal conviction of a former commander in chief, and host the first debate between Biden and Trump since 2020.
Here are five political events to keep an eye on this summer:
Presidential debates
After months of uncertainty about whether Biden and Trump would actually participate in the time-honored quadrennial debates that have been a staple of the presidential election for nearly 50 years, the candidates quickly agreed on the terms for two debates this summer.
The Commission on Presidential Debates, which has organized these events every election year since 1988, had already scheduled three debates for the fall as usual. But the Biden and Trump campaigns marginalized The Commission quickly agreed last month to hold two separate debates in June and September.
The first broadcast will take place in less than two weeks on June 27th and will be hosted by CNN in Atlanta. The second broadcast will be hosted by ABC on September 10th.
Biden and Trump are meeting to discuss these issues for the first time since their confrontation four years ago, during the infamous first debate that spiraled out of control when Trump regularly interrupted Biden and moderator Chris Wallace.
There could also be a vice presidential debate, but the logistics have yet to be sorted outThe Biden team accepted an offer from CBS to moderate the debate and the Trump team accepted an offer from Fox News. The teams also disagreed on the possibility of holding further debates.
Regardless, debates are regularly memorable parts of an election, and they will take place earlier in the electoral calendar than ever before.
Verdict for Trump and Hunter Biden
Another unprecedented aspect of the 2024 race is that one of the two major candidates is the first former president and likely major party nominee to be convicted of a crime.
Trump was (*5*)sentenced in the first of four criminal trials he faces after a New York jury found him guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records. The case involved payments the jury found Trump made to cover up alleged affairs leading up to the 2016 election.
He should sentenced on July 11, just four days before the start of the Republican National Convention, where he is expected to be officially named the Republican nominee. Although Trump is unlikely to receive a bulky sentence as a first-time offender convicted of a minor crime, the sentence will depend on the judge’s discretion and could include prison time.
Even though the other cases are unlikely to go to trial before Election Day, Democrats will try to utilize Trump’s conviction as evidence that he is unfit for office.
At the same time, Trump’s allies may try to complicate the situation, as Biden’s son Hunter sentenced on Tuesday for three sedate weapons offenses. Hunter Biden is the first child of a sitting president to be convicted of a crime, and he too will likely be sentenced this summer.
The president is not involved in the case against Hunter, and the charges against him and Trump are quite different, but Republicans have wanted Using Hunter’s legal battles – including the tax lawsuit against him, which is scheduled to go to trial in September – to portray Biden’s family as untrustworthy.
Nomination conventions
The presidential nominating conventions usually represent the height of pomp and circumstance for the major parties. These are meetings lasting several days in which the most essential party leaders participate.
Traditionally, the Republican Party, which does not hold the presidency, will host its convention first from July 15 to 18, with the Democrats following from August 19 to 22. However, both conventions could look at least a little different than usual.
Organizers of the Republican convention are reportedly assuming Trump may not be able to attend, in part because his verdict was handed down four days earlier. NBC reported Preparations are underway for Trump to accept the nomination in Milwaukee or at his Mar-a-Lago estate. However, an adviser to Trump’s campaign team told the news agency that plans for the convention had only called for Trump to accept the nomination in person.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) found itself in a challenging position as Biden may not be able to get on the ballot in Ohio as the state’s certification deadline had passed on August 7. The Ohio legislature has not yet resolved the issue, and so the DNC plans to nominate virtually Biden during a roll call vote before the party convention.
In the past, the candidates have also seen slight gains in the polls after their party conventions, which could give the two candidates a boost, at least temporarily.
Important congressional primaries
Even though the presidential primaries have already concluded, essential primaries for congressional seats are taking place in states across the country throughout the summer.
Two of the most essential primaries will take place in the next two weeks, in which incumbents will try to prevail over well-funded challengers for their seats.
Republican Rep. Bob Good of Virginia, chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is running against state Sen. John McGuire on Tuesday. Good is among the most conservative House members, but Trump has endorsed McGuire, in part because Good originally supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) for president before endorsing Trump.
A week later in New York, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman will try to fend off a challenge to his House seat from Westchester County Executive George Latimer. The election campaign has become a proxy war between moderates and progressives.
Later this summer, the pairings will be set for the key Senate elections that will determine which party controls the body. Rep. Ruben Gallego (Democrat, Arizona) and Republican Kari Lake are likely to win their parties’ nominations in Arizona in tardy July, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Democrat, Michigan) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (Republican, Michigan) are likely to be Michigan’s Senate candidates in the August primary.
An early surprise
Presidential elections have a history of unexpected developments that have thrown pre-election campaigns into disarray, even in elections less unprecedented than this one. Polls continue to show that 2024 is likely to be a close race despite everything that has happened so far, but an upset affecting one or both candidates could certainly change the situation.
Such a development has been referred to in the past as an “October surprise,” disrupting the election just weeks before the election, but it could of course occur sooner.
Biden and Trump are the two candidates from the largest parties with the longest terms in office in US history. And the possibility that one or both candidates will have to drop out of the race due to health problems is still at least somewhat more likely than with most other presidential candidates.
There are already US-backed wars going on in Ukraine and Israel, but if these conflicts or other countries were to lead to major clashes involving US troops more directly, it could divert national attention from the central political discussions at hand.
Meanwhile, another, completely unexpected surprise could ultimately determine the race – such as the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in March 2020.
