Poll-watching season is upon us, and I already hate it. After the disastrous state-level polls in the 2022 cycle, it’s demanding not to be cynical about the entire polling industry. Have those problems been fixed? Is Trump’s lead real or just another “red wave” mirage?
I cannot answer these questions definitively, but some pollsters still have a good reputation. One of them is Selzer, which is not only the gold standard in Iowa, but also perhaps the most exact poll in the country. On Monday, the company Approved It’s the first poll of the campaign season, and it’s really bad news for Biden.
I know what you’re thinking. “Iowa was never in the game, so what does it matter?” You’re right, but there’s more to this than meets the eye.
It doesn’t bode well for Biden that some of his worst numbers come from the best pollsters. (Selzer is literally the highest-rated pollster in our recent rankings.)https://t.co/YjUpVPW8kK
– Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 17, 2024
Two weeks after being found guilty on multiple counts in a New York court, former Republican President Donald Trump still leads Democratic incumbent Joe Biden by double digits in Iowa.
A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Trump leading Biden among likely voters 50% to 32%.
For comparison, Trump won Iowa in 2020 by just eight points. His lead at this point in the 2024 election cycle has grown to 18 points. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also remains a factor, eating up nine points in the poll. But again, why does this matter if Iowa is not a swing state? It matters because if Trump wins Iowa by that much, then Minnesota is absolutely in the game.
Several polls suggest that the neighboring state is no longer a sure thing for the incumbent president, but the skepticism was certainly justified. Biden won Minnesota by just seven percentage points in 2020, but the state has long been a white whale for Republicans. But given the sturdy correlation between Iowa and much of Minnesota, that may soon no longer be the case.
If Iowa is really R+18, then Minnesota is definitely competitive
— Political Election Predictions (@tencor_7144) June 17, 2024
If you compare 2016 and 2020, you’ll see that Trump is doing better in Iowa and also in Minnesota. That’s because, while they’re separate states, they’re regionally connected in a way that makes them more linear politically. If Trump was only six to eight points ahead in Iowa, he wouldn’t have a chance in Minnesota. But if he’s 18 points ahead, the map suddenly expands.
This also bodes well for Wisconsin.
If this poll is correct (and that’s a massive if), Biden is likely trailing at least 3 to 5 in Wisconsin, making him a clear underdog.
Every pollster gets it wrong from time to time, but the worst thing in politics is assuming that Ann Selzer’s data on Iowa is wrong. https://t.co/makVJWS5rV
— Justin Slaughter (@JBSDC) June 17, 2024
Of course, this is a snapshot in time. It’s only mid-June and there’s plenty of time for the dynamics of the race to change. For now, though, Donald Trump is the one to choose, even if the polling mistakes of 2022 are still in the rearview mirror.
