Washington (AP) – Even for an agency that was used to criticism, the debate of this summer about the major tax breaks and spending cuts by the Republicans for the Congress budget office.
“Exercising that it was misunderstood,” was the judgment of spokesman Mike Johnson. “Make the same mistakes,” was the chorus of Steve Scalisene, R-La, from House majority. President Donald Trump rejected the CBO as “very hostile”.
For the director of the CBO, Phillip Swagel, the “incoming fire”, as he calls it, is simply part of the job.
“We just try to do it right and inform the congress and the country,” he said in an interview with the Associated Press. “There is no agenda here.”
Due to the creation of an impartial analysis for the congress, it is due to the CBO swager and expert staff to assess the effects of legislation on economic growth and finances in the country – the “values” of Washington, which often tracks about the dominating political debates of the day. Both crucial political parties often contest the results of the agency, especially when their top priorities are at stake.
“Sometimes it’s noise, sometimes not. But we just make it out. Here we do our work,” said Swagel. “What is very important to me is to ensure that our work is correct.”
It is a reserved approach that Swelle has entertained in CBO since 2019 when congress leaders appointed him director of both the Republican and Democratic Administrations. Swagel, an economist from Handel, brings a curious and ingenious approach for the job.
“The challenge to carry out an analysis now,” said Swagel, “are the changes we see in our economy really big.”
The assessment of the U.S. economy has become more difficult, from the trump government’s mass shifting plans to the unprecedented tariffs of comprehensive tariffs in countries around the world, to massive tax and expenditure cuts that were passed in the law this summer.
Swagel recently consisted of the AP to speak in detail about analyzes of his agency, the future of the state’s authorization programs and the pressure to speak, to remain impartial if data themselves have the risk of being politicized.
How Trump’s tariffs spend the economic models
Trump’s curved tariffs plan has made the standard models of the CBO challenges for the evaluation of the trade.
The basic tariffs on all countries and higher prices for Trump’s “worst offenders” list differ from what we have seen in more than 100 years, “said Swagel. It is a dramatic shift from the tariff era that has existed since the Second World War.” We will take a careful look at whether this models still apply, which are so great, we just have not counted on which we do not count on have? “he said.
So far, the CBO estimates could reduce the tariffs by 4 trillion dollars by 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade and assist to compensate for the IT project from the great law of Republicans adopted this year. “It is a big influence,” said Swagel.
The CBO also expects Trump’s tariffs to cause increased inflation for about two years, said Swagel and caused price increases for companies and customers. But he says that these effects will be ephemeral.
“If the tariffs rise and prices rise with the tariffs, inflation will be higher, but then the prices will be at a higher level and stable,” he said. “And then the inflationary effects will decrease.”
Immigration cuts different types
Swagel said there are “advantages and disadvantages” in the evaluation of how immigration affects the economy.
“Immigrants have added to our employment population, and that means a higher GDP. It means more income and a lower deficit,” said Swagel. “But of course there are many problems related to immigration,” in particular that “more immigrants control more state and local governments – in schools, the police, health systems and other things.”
“For the federal government, immigration is a fiscal positive,” he said, “but it is the opposite for state and local governments.”
Trump’s tax and expenditure law signed in July will mean that around 320,000 people from the United States will be removed in the next 10 years, the CBO said in a recent report. It also predicted that the US population is expected more slowly than before.
This law comprises around 150 billion US dollars to improve deportations in the next four years.
Swagel says it is not his place to say how immigration laws should be created.
“Our job is only to say what the budget effects are,” he said. “It can be found for the political system:” Well, what are the right decisions for the country? “
The burden on social security and medicar
Swagel said that US claim programs are “part of a challenging fiscal trajectory for the country. But the greatest obstacle to do something about it, he said that” the decisions do not have to be made immediately “.
The GoBroke data for Medicare and Social Security are now in 2033 and 2034. For these data, the Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund and the trust fund of social security. According to the latest report by the trustees of the programs, the recipients of age and disability can no longer pay full performance.
While the bankruptcy data approaches quickly, it is always a lifetime for legislators to step down the can on huge fiscal decisions.
“We have a stable economy, an economy that is growing,” said Swagel. “We saw a slow economy in the second half of 2025, but the economy is still growing and still creates jobs. So there is no crisis.”
“Difficult decisions have to be made,” he said.
Criticism of the data of the CBO
During Trump’s second term of office, the CBO was exposed to aggressive attacks on its analyzes, which were often reinforced by its Republicans in the congress. At the beginning of this year, Trump described the CBO as a “very hostile” organization.
Swagel played the tension and said: “Our work relationship with the executive department is smooth and routinely that when evaluating legislation, any legislation leads to a call to an agency of the executive.”
“There is this incoming fire on the CBO,” which says Swagel is part of the political process. “I understand that this kind of criticism in the eyes of the people who make it in their political efforts could sometimes be helpful.”
In contrast to many other roles in the government, the CBO director cannot be released by the president – the person can only be removed from the congress.
Swagel said work from his office was as crucial as always.
“It is important that the country has a group of analysts who have no opinion – who only say:” Here are the facts, “he said.
“We don’t tell the congress what to do,” said Swagel. “We don’t say whether something is good or bad. We only say: ‘Here is what it costs, here is what it does.’ And that is our role.
