WASHINGTON (AP) — Anti-Trump Republicans lost their frontrunner in the Senate when Sen. Mitt Romney announced he would not seek a second term. On Tuesday, voters in Utah will decide whether a similar policy can still succeed in the Republican primary.
Even before Romney announced he would not run for re-election, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson had already formed an exploratory committee and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs entered the primary, both of whom emphasized their support for former President Donald Trump. U.S. Rep. John Curtis has also entered the race and is widely seen as the candidate with the best chance of winning the primary.
The Utah primaries also elect candidates for governor, the House of Representatives and the state legislature.
Curtis is ahead in most polls for the Senate seat, but Staggs has the backing of Trump and the state Republican Party after winning the most votes at the state convention. Wilson has a financial advantage, having loaned his campaign $3 million. Jason Walton, who presents himself as a Trump-style businessman, is also running.
Curtis has repeatedly said he would vote for the former Republican president, but his opponents in the primary have criticized him for his lukewarm support of Trump. But while courting Trump’s support is key in Republican districts and states, the situation is different in Utah. The most conservative candidates, while backed by the state party, are often snubbed by voters.
A win at a Utah nominating convention means a candidate’s name will appear on the primary election ballot, but candidates can also submit signatures to appear on the ballot. While the nominating convention traditionally rewards the party’s most committed members, it does not have a good track record of selecting the final nominee. In 2018, Romney lost the state convention to Senator Mike Kennedy. In the primary, however, Romney defeated Kennedy by more than 40 percentage points.
Gov. Spencer Cox, who is running for another term, was booed at this year’s nominating convention. The state party endorsed Phil Lyman, who supported Trump’s false claims of voter fraud in his loss to Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Although Cox may have appeared too moderate to state delegates, he is still considered the favorite for Tuesday’s primary.
One exception to this rule was Representative Celeste Maloy, who won the primary for a special election last year after coming first at the nominating convention. That victory, which was a surprise, made the little-known congressional staffer the front-runner for the nomination, and she was sworn into the House in November.
However, in the race for a full term, Maloy lost the nominating convention this year to Colby Jenkins, who is endorsed by Senator Mike Lee. Nevertheless, Maloy has a huge fundraising advantage and an endorsement from Trump.
Trump has not endorsed a candidate for Curtis’ open seat in the 3rd Congressional District. Kennedy, who lost to Romney in 2018, won the state party’s endorsement at the convention in April. He is running against state auditor John Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor JR Bird, trampoline park empire owner Case Lawrence and attorney Stewart Peay, who is backed by Romney, his wife’s uncle.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primary will take place on Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time or 10 p.m. ET.
WHAT IS ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press is covering 34 elections, including primaries for governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, attorney general, auditor, Senate, House of Representatives and state board of education.
WHO CAN VOTE
In Utah, political parties decide what type of primaries they hold. In Tuesday’s primary, the Democratic primary is open to all voters, while the Republican primary is open only to registered Republican voters.
DECISION NOTES
The 3rd Congressional District covers the eastern part of the state, stretching from the winter resorts of Park City south to Provo and southeast to Moab. Kennedy represents a district in the State Senate located in Alpine, between Salt Lake City and Provo. Bird is running as a candidate representing rural voters. He is mayor of Roosevelt, a city in Duchesne County in northeastern Utah. Wilson’s former district was in Davis County, northwest of Salt Lake City.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates could close the gap. If a race has not yet been called, the AP will continue to report on any major developments, such as concessions or declarations of victory by the candidates. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and will explain why.
Utah has no provision for automatic recounts. However, the state will cover the cost of a recount requested by candidates if the margin between the two leading candidates is 0.25 percentage points or less.
The AP can declare a winner in a race where a recount is allowed if it concludes that the margin is too huge for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
WHAT ABOUT VOTER TURNOUT AND PRE-SELECTION?
As of June 13, there were 1,969,880 registered voters in Utah, of which 14% were Democrats and 50% were Republicans.
In the 2022 Senate election, voter turnout was 22% of the approximately 1.9 million registered voters in the Republican primary. In the 3rd Congressional District, voter turnout was 29% of the approximately 113,000 voters in the 2022 Republican primary.
In Utah, elections are conducted exclusively by mail-in ballot.
As of June 20, a total of 180,599 voters had cast their ballots before Election Day, about 12% in the Democratic primary and 87% in the Republican primary.
HOW LONG DOES THE COUNTING OF VOTES USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 Republican Senate primary, the AP first reported results at 10:03 p.m. ET, three minutes after polls closed. Election night counting ended at 1:46 a.m. ET, after about 83% of the votes had been counted.
ARE WE ALREADY THERE?
As of Tuesday, there are 133 days left until the parliamentary elections in November.
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Associated Press writer Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City contributed to this report.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.
