Congress enters the eighth day of the federal shutdown on Wednesday, with neither party giving an inch and the path to a solution nowhere in sight.
But something has to give if lawmakers hope to reopen the government in a timely manner, and that movement will likely be the result of outside forces putting pressure on one party — or both — to break the impasse.
That was the case during the drawn-out shutdowns of recent years, when a range of outside factors — from economic sirens to public frustration — forced lawmakers to relent and postpone their policy fights for another day.
Here are five pressure points that could aid break the current impasse.
Public mood
Among the most recycled quotes on Capitol Hill is Abraham Lincoln: “Public opinion is everything.” The problem at this early stage of the shutdown fight is that the jury is still out on where this sentiment will land.
This uncertainty has led both parties to back down while they wait for more concrete evidence as to which side is primarily to blame. But those polls are just around the corner, and if history is any indication, they will be a major factor that will force at least one side to change their positions to end the shutdown.
That was the case in 2013, when Republicans calling for a repeal of ObamaCare saw their approval ratings plummet—and called off their campaign after 16 days of no concessions. A similar energetic prevailed during the shutdown in 2018 and 2019 — the longest in history — when Republicans agreed to reopen the government without securing the border wall funds they had insisted on.
A recent CBS poll found that 39 percent of voters blame Trump and the Republicans for the shutdown; 30 percent blame Democrats in Congress; and 31 percent blame both parties equally.
A Harvard/Harris poll also showed more respondents blaming Republicans (53 percent to 47 percent), but nearly two-thirds think Democrats should accept the GOP’s emergency funding bill without finding a solution to the Affordable Care Act’s expiring premium subsidies.
The ambiguity of these sentiments has exacerbated the partisan blame game — giving both sides an incentive to hold the line until a clearer picture emerges.
Problems with air traffic controllers
It’s been almost seven years since the 35-day shutdown ended after travel chaos and air traffic controller shortages put enormous strain on the aviation sector – and problems are already emerging again.
A surge in air traffic controllers calling in ill on Monday led to numerous flight delays and cancellations, raising fears that retaliation for the 2019 events could occur again.
“We should all be concerned,” said Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), who took part in informal grassroots discussions last week about a possible solution.
Transportation Security Administration employees and air traffic controllers are all considered crucial workers, with the Department of Transportation announcing that more than 13,000 air traffic controllers will be working without pay during this shutdown.
Sick calls caused delays at numerous major airports, including Denver International Airport and Newark Liberty International Airport. There was no air traffic controller on site at Hollywood Burbank Airport for nearly six hours on Monday.
Just like the record-breaking shutdown in 2019, Democrats expect this issue to cause problems for Trump and Republicans. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told reporters that he and other local officials are holding a press event at Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport on Wednesday to draw attention to the growing problem.
“It had a direct impact on people’s ability to move around the country,” Van Hollen said of the shutdown issue in 2019. “Donald Trump shut down the government in his first term, and he needs to end the gridlock that he ended in the second term.”
Frozen paychecks
The central and defining factor of any shutdown is the reduction in federal services and the isolation of hundreds of thousands of federal employees. Some of these workers are considered “essential,” meaning they still need to come to work, while others are furloughed, meaning they stay home. But both groups share the unenviable situation of receiving no salary until the government reopens.
That reality will become clear on October 10, when the first round of federal paychecks fails. Of course, the most immediate impact is on workers and their families, who must find alternative ways to pay bills and make ends meet.
But the pain will also ripple across the broader economy as federal workers stay home and avoid the routine day-to-day purchases — lunch, taxis, haircuts — that can destabilize local economies.
The numbers are enormous.
The White House Council of Economic Advisers estimates that each week of lockdown will reduce the country’s gross domestic product by $15 billion.
“This is currently leading to crippling economic losses,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) warned Tuesday. “A month-long shutdown would mean not only furloughing 750,000 civilian federal workers right now, but an additional 43,000 more unemployed Americans across the economy, because that’s the effect, the ripple effect that it has in the private sector.”
In a typical shutdown, furloughed workers receive back pay for days lost during the shutdown, resulting in a delayed raise in economic activity. But even that common practice is now in question given Trump’s budget office’s threat to withhold pay from certain workers. Others, Trump said, would be fired altogether.
That combination is sure to exacerbate a volatile economy already reeling from falling consumer confidence, dwindling job creation and Trump’s tariffs. Whichever party is to blame for the economic strain will come under the most pressure to back down in the fight over the shutdown.
Military paychecks
Military pay has been a constant topic of conversation during past shutdowns, and this turnaround is no different.
Military members could miss their paychecks on Oct. 15, a date that is top of mind for lawmakers.
Johnson met with Senate Republicans on Tuesday during their weekly policy lunch and told reporters afterward that he was considering letting the House vote on a bill to pay troops.
“I’m definitely open to that. We’ve done that in the past. We want to make sure our troops are paid,” Johnson said, noting that a GOP member has filed legislation to that effect. “We look forward to processing all of this once we have everyone together again.”
The spokesperson added that the closure must end by Monday in order to process paychecks by Oct. 15.
One problem for Johnson, however, is that the House is not scheduled to reconvene until Monday at the earliest, and he has indicated he will keep the chamber out of session until the shutdown ends.
Democrats said they are also worried about those impacts, but say Johnson has bigger problems.
“I’m concerned about all the impacts of a shutdown. … A shutdown has many impacts,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “How on earth does Mike Johnson say anything with a straight face now when he doesn’t even get his members here to vote on anything? How does he know what he can deliver when his members aren’t even here?”
(*5*)
Health factors
Democrats have made health care the linchpin of their opposition to Republicans’ short-term spending bill, calling for a indefinite extension of expanded Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies set to expire at the end of the year.
Citing that expiration date, GOP leaders refused to negotiate the issue as part of the current debate, saying it would be time for that discussion after the government opens up.
“This is a December 31 issue,” Johnson told reporters on Tuesday.
But there are several related factors that will emerge well before Jan. 1 that could pressure GOP leaders to reconsider their position in the coming weeks.
For one thing, private insurance companies that sponsor plans on the ObamaCare marketplace are already sending out rate notices to inform patients about next year’s costs. These rates are calculated based on current law — not predictions about what Congress might do later — meaning they are calculated assuming that the increased subsidies put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic expire on January 1.
That difference is huge: If Congress doesn’t act, the average copay premium for patients enrolling in ObamaCare marketplace plans would raise by 75 percent, according to KFF. These are the numbers that patients are already receiving in the mail. And with drastically higher rates, many will likely purchase less coverage next year — or no coverage at all.
Adding to the time pressure is that the ACA’s open enrollment period begins Nov. 1, meaning patients will begin making decisions long before Republican leaders say they are ready to act.
“Insurers are not waiting to set rates for next year,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) warned this week. “You do it now – not in three months.”
