WASHINGTON (AP) — The federal government shutdown is quickly approaching its second longest on record, with no end in sight. Some lawmakers predict it could be the longest, exceeding 35 days since President Donald Trump’s first term.
The Trump administration is using the current shutdown to reinforce priorities it favors while attempting to dismantle those it doesn’t. Still, Democrats insist that any funding bill includes lend a hand for millions of Americans who will lose health insurance coverage or face dramatically higher monthly premiums if Congress does nothing.
The shutdown began on October 1st. Here’s a look at its impact so far on workers, the economy and the services provided by government.
Furloughs and layoffs
As of March 31, the federal government employed almost 2.3 million civilian employees. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that about 750,000 of those employees would be furloughed each day during a shutdown. This means that they will not report to work until the shutdown ends. Others are considered “exempt” and are going about their jobs, helping to protect life and property, and providing other indispensable services.
Both groups of employees receive their salary, but retroactively. That means they can expect to miss a full paycheck later this month after previously receiving a partial check for work done at the end of September.
The country’s 1.3 million vigorous military personnel received a fleeting reprieve. They threatened to miss their paycheck on Wednesday. But Trump ordered the Pentagon to redirect money. A second reprieve seems unlikely.
Of note for taxpayers: According to a CBO estimate provided at the request of Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, the federal total to pay furloughed workers while they are at home is about $400 million per day.
The administration is also trying to lay off thousands of federal workers in agencies that don’t align with its priorities. Republican leaders in Congress have said this is part of the fallout from a shutdown. However, previous presidents did not employ the shutdowns to carry out mass layoffs.
The Republican government has announced staff cuts affecting 4,100 workers, with the largest cuts occurring in the Treasury, Health and Human Services, Education and Housing and Urban Development ministries.
White House budget chief Russ Vought said in an interview on “The Charlie Kirk Show” that many more are planned.
“I think we’ll probably end up over 10,000,” Vought said.
“We want to be very aggressive in closing down the bureaucracy wherever we can,” Vought said. “Not just the funding, but also the bureaucracy that we now have the opportunity to do this.”
A federal judge temporarily blocked the layoffs, saying the cuts appeared to be politically motivated and were carried out without much thought. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday the administration is “100%” confident it will prevail in subsequent legal action on the matter.
Lawmakers recognize that many federal employees live paycheck to paycheck and will face some financial strain during the shutdown. Food banks in some communities have increased their relief efforts. The Capital Area Food Bank, for example, said it would conduct additional food distributions in the Washington region starting Monday to support federal workers and contractors.
Economic impact
Previous closures had a slight impact on the economy, reducing growth in the quarter in which the closures occurred. However, growth increased slightly in the following three months to compensate for this.
According to an estimate by Oxford Economics, a shutdown reduces economic growth by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points per week. A full-quarter standstill, which has never happened before, would reduce growth by 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points in those three months.
Some industries are more affected than others.
The U.S. Travel Association said the travel industry is expected to lose $1 billion a week as travelers change plans to visit national parks, historic sites and the nation’s capital, where many facilities such as the Smithsonian Institution museums and the National Zoo are now closed to visitors.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce noted that the Small Business Administration supports loans totaling about $860 million per week to 1,600 tiny businesses. These programs exclude fresh loans during the shutdown. The shutdown has also halted the issuance and renewal of flood insurance policies, delaying mortgage closings and real estate transactions.
The Federal Aviation Administration has reported a shortage of air traffic controllers in cities across the United States, from airports in Boston and Philadelphia to control centers in Atlanta and Houston. Flight delays have spread to airports in Nashville, Tennessee, Dallas, Newark, New Jersey and more.
Political fallout
The party that insists on conditions under a state funding law usually does not prevail. That was the case with Republicans in 2013 and 2018. It remains to be seen how things will play out this time, but neither side appears to be moving.
So far, the public has been rather divided as to who is responsible for the standoff. About six in 10 U.S. adults say Trump and congressional Republicans bear “a lot” or “quite a lot” of responsibility for the shutdown, while 54% say the same about congressional Democrats, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
The perception could change depending on how much the White House uses the shutdown to eliminate Democratic priorities and Democratic-leaning states and cities.
The government has set aside about $18 billion to finance a fresh rail tunnel under the Hudson River between New York City and New Jersey and an expansion of the city’s Second Avenue subway. It cut $7.6 billion in grants that supported hundreds of pristine energy projects in 16 states, all of which voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election. In addition to the closure, the administration also cited other reasons for the funding changes.
Ultimately, there seems to be no basic way out of the shutdown. Republicans insist that any healthcare negotiations will not take place until the government is fully open for business. “We do not negotiate in a hostage situation,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D.
On the other side of the Capitol, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said Democrats “will not bend and will not break because we stand up for the American people.”
