LOS ANGELES (AP) — The national battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives shifts to California on Tuesday as voters consider a Democratic proposal that could eliminate up to five Republican districts and weaken President Donald Trump’s moves to secure his party’s control of power in Washington.
The outcome will impact next year’s midterm elections and beyond, with Democrats hoping a victory will set the stage for the party to regain control of the House in 2026. Shifting the majority would jeopardize Trump’s agenda for the rest of his term, at a time of deep partisan divisions over immigration, health care and the future direction of the nation.
“God help us if we lose in California,” said Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Democrats only need to win three seats in the 2026 election to gain control of the House of Representatives.
Heavily Democratic California and its 52 congressional districts represent by far Democrats’ best chance in an unprecedented battle over state redistricting that began when Texas Republicans acceded to Trump’s demand to redraw their boundaries to lend a hand the GOP retain its House majority. Democrats hold 43 of the state’s seats and hope to augment that number to 48.
Trump is not only fighting against the Democrats, but also against history. Midterm elections typically punish the party in the White House, but so far four Republican-led states have adopted modern district maps to push more Republican voters into key districts.
Measure supported by Newsom, Obama
California’s Proposition 50 asks voters to override House maps drawn by an independent commission and replace them with redistricting adopted by the Democratic-controlled Legislature. These modern districts would exist for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections.
The redistricting aims to weaken the power of Republican voters, in one case by uniting rural, conservative-leaning parts of far Northern California with Marin County, a notoriously liberal coastal stronghold across the Golden Gate Bridge from San Francisco.
The measure was spearheaded by Newsom, who has thrown the weight of his political activities into the balance in a major test of his mettle ahead of a potential 2028 presidential run. Former President Barack Obama also urged voters to pass it.
Newsom has sought to nationalize the campaign and portrays the proposal as a counterweight to everything Trump-related.
“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,” Obama says in an ad. “They can stop the Republicans.”
Critics say two wrongs don’t make a right. They are calling on Californians to reject what they call a Democratic power grab, even as they have concerns about Trump’s moves in Republican-led states.
Among the most prominent critics is Arnold Schwarzenegger, the movie star and former Republican governor who pushed for the creation of an independent commission that was approved by voters in 2008 and 2010. There is no point in fighting Trump by becoming him, Schwarzenegger said in September, arguing that the proposal would “take power away from the people.”
After an initial wave of television advertising, opponents of the plan struggled to raise money in a state that has some of the most pricey media markets in the country. Data compiled last week by advertising tracker AdImpact showed that Democrats and other supporters had booked over $5 million in ad buys on television, cable and radio. But opponents had virtually no time reserved, even though the data didn’t include some popular streaming services like Hulu and YouTube or email advertising.
Total broadcast and cable advertising spending exceeded $100 million, with more than two-thirds of that coming from supporters. Newsom urged people to stop donating in the final weeks of the race.
Trump, who lost California overwhelmingly in his three presidential campaigns, largely stayed out of the fray. A week before the election, he urged voters in a social media post not to vote early or by mail — a message that contradicted that of the state’s top Republicans, who urged people to cast their ballots as quickly as possible.
The national house map is changing
Democrats hope to gain up to five seats in California if voters approve the modern boundaries, offsetting the five seats Republicans hope to gain with their modern maps for Texas. Republicans also expect to gain one seat each in Missouri and North Carolina through modern maps, and possibly two more in Ohio.
Congressional district boundaries are typically redrawn every ten years to reflect population shifts documented in the census. A mid-decade redistricting is unusual because there is no court order identifying deficiencies in the existing maps.
Five other Republican-led states are also considering modern maps: Kansas, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana and Nebraska.
On the Democratic side, Illinois, Maryland, New York and Virginia have proposals to redraw the maps, but major hurdles remain.
A court has ordered modern boundaries to be drawn in Utah, where all four House districts are represented by Republicans. But it remains to be seen whether the state will approve a map that makes any of them winnable for Democrats.
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Cooper reported from Phoenix and Nguyen reported from Sacramento, California.
