The ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization two years ago galvanized Democrats and reproductive rights activists, and the radical changes enabled by the Supreme Court’s ruling immediately energized the movement.
The Verdict The battle immediately turned around, mobilizing abortion rights supporters and making the issue a major campaign issue. And since then, the anti-abortion movement has struggled with a recent reality it may not have been prepared for: The public largely supports abortion rights and opposes significant efforts to ban or restrict the procedure.
“It sets the agenda across the board. Because it’s such a clear contrast and voters believe they can really sort it out,” said Celinda Lake, one of the Biden campaign’s lead pollsters in 2020. “It’s a yes-or-no question.”
At the same time, the Republican Party has fought agree on a messaging strategy to describe next steps.
“I see some disagreement in the anti-abortion circle, but what I do know is that they have made it very clear that they want to end access to abortion… their disagreement is how they get there,” said Nourbese Flint, president of the abortion rights group All Above All.
“So I wouldn’t call it disorder. I would call it more like they’re trying to figure out how to get a message across,” Flint said.
Abortion rights activists said they now felt better organized and had much larger support groups than before Dobbs.
Many said they had tried to warn about conservatives’ coordinated efforts to overturn Roe v. Wade, but some acknowledged they had become complacent.
“I think, you know, one of the things we thought about after the Dobbs decision and after Roe is that maybe we didn’t have the best strategy to take people who were interested in the issue and activate them when we didn’t have a crisis,” said Lupe M. Rodriguez, executive director of the National Latina Institute for Reproductive Justice.
Reproductive rights advocates argue that they have put in the work to learn how to keep voters on board in every election after Roe, with the hope that 2024 will be no different.
“We learned a lot about how to work with people over the longer term to really find ways to engage them on these issues,” Rodriguez said.
On the other hand, anti-abortion activists are finding their priorities sidelined by the same politicians who have long supported and influenced them. For political reasons, the Republican Party has concluded that hardline anti-abortion policies hurt candidates in key elections.
GOP lawmakers and candidatesincluding former President Trump, now believe that decisions about abortion should be left to the states – a marked departure from previous efforts to regulate this at the federal level.
Abortion opponents expressed their disappointment with this rhetoric, but said they would continue to campaign for Republicans.
One of the most influential of these groups, SBA Pro-Life America, plans to spend at least $92 million this election cycle to reach 10 million voters in swing states. Their message: Democrats want to repeal abortion bans and pass laws that guarantee abortion at any stage of pregnancy.
After a surprisingly high number of victories by Democratic candidates who addressed the issue of abortion in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans will have to decide in 2024 whether to tighten restrictions or move away from the issue.
Certainly, abortion ranks far below inflation, crime and immigration on the GOP voters’ list of priorities.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll, said abortion is more successful as a standalone voting issue than when used as an attack point against a popular Republican candidate.
For example, five statewide votes in 2022 all supported abortion rights, even in Republican states like Kentucky and Montana. But conservative governors in Ohio and Georgia who oppose abortion also won.
“I find [abortion] is an important and powerful issue for Democrats. But it’s simply not a single issue that will massively influence voting decisions – it will influence them, but it won’t be the deciding factor,” Franklin said.
Democrats want to keep the pressure on Republicans and build on their success in 2022.
Democrats were unified in their message following restrictive abortion laws in states like Arizona, Alabama and Florida. The laws were passed by Republicans and were only possible because Trump-nominated Supreme Court justices overturned Roe v. Wade.
Abortion access today is a patchwork of state laws and court decisions, and nearly two dozen states have bans or restrictions in place. Abortion advocates clearly want to blame the experiences of women in these states on Republicans.
“Every time I feel like this issue is losing traction, we hear a new story about how it’s affecting people’s lives and their health and their ability to have a healthy pregnancy,” said Cecile Richards, former president of Planned Parenthood and co-chair of the liberal super PAC American Bridge 21st Century. “Republicans are taking an untenable, indefensible position on these issues, and I think they’re going to be held accountable.”
In the Senate, Democrats are trying to highlight Republican opposition to reproductive rights by holding votes on issues such as in vitro fertilization (IVF), access to contraception and abortion rights.
“They’re trying to remind everyone where the parties stand. That’s largely seen as a strength of the Democrats and not the terrain that Republicans prefer right now, because there are so many other issues where we’re ahead, like the economy, immigration, foreign policy and energy,” said GOP strategist Ron Bonjean, co-founder of ROKK Solutions.
The Republicans in the Senate tried pass a law earlier this monthwhich was blocked by Democrats, would create an incentive for politicians not to pass laws banning IVF, but would not prevent a court from restricting the procedure.
Senate Republicans also signed a statement saying they “strongly support” continued federal access to IVF, despite Republican efforts in states like Alabama to block it.
Democrats claim that they will go into November united in their message for abortion rights.
“From banning abortions at six weeks of pregnancy to IVF, Republicans are everywhere and can’t seem to really agree on a solution that works for everyone. That’s what Democrats are united on this issue and want to uphold women’s reproductive rights and the right to choose,” said former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.).
He added: “When it comes to deeply held beliefs that attract voters, this is one of those issues where that has been the case year after year.”
