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A poll shows rising health care costs could lead midterm voters to turn to Democrats

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A KFF poll released on January 29, 2026 found that health care costs were on voters’ minds in the run-up to the midterm elections. (Photo by Yin Yang/Getty Images)

Americans feel their health care costs are rising faster than other household expenses. They blame President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress and say the issue will play a role in their votes in this year’s midterm elections a survey published on Thursday by the non-partisan health research organization KFF.

Three-quarters of voters surveyed, including majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents, said health care costs would have a miniature or enormous impact on who they vote for in the fall congressional elections.

While voters of all parties said the issue would impact their vote, Democrats had a significant advantage when respondents were asked which party voters trust on several questions about health care costs.

Voters also blamed Trump and congressional Republicans for allowing tax credits for Affordable Care Act marketplace plans to expire. Two-thirds of respondents, including 72% of independents, said Congress did the wrong thing by canceling those loans on Jan. 1. Among those who said it was a mistake not to extend the loans, 80% said Trump or Republicans in Congress were largely to blame.

“Republicans won the legislative battle to phase out the expanded ACA tax credits, but that has contributed to health care costs becoming a larger economic and electoral issue, and Democrats are well-positioned to capitalize on this in the medium term,” KFF President and CEO Drew Altman said in a statement.

Health insurance premium costs

The cost of health insurance premiums and deductibles topped the list of economic concerns for respondents. 66% of respondents said they are concerned about whether they and their families can afford care. This group was larger than those who said the same about all other categories, including housing, utilities and food.

Four in 10 independents and two-thirds of Democrats surveyed said the cost of health care would have a “major impact” on who they vote for in the upcoming election that will decide control of Congress in the final two years of Trump’s second term.

Among all voters, Democrats had a 13-point lead over Republicans on who voters trust to pay for health care.

Democrats were in double digits on other health policy issues, with the sole exception of who voters trusted to lower prescription drug prices. Democrats still lead Republicans on the issue, which Trump has emphasized, but by a narrower margin of 35% to 30%.

Focus on affordability

In the confined major elections in 2025, Democratic candidates had success with campaign messages focused on affordability, an issue Trump also wanted to address.

Thursday’s poll shows the issue could remain at the forefront of this year’s election. Half of those surveyed said their household spending had increased “a lot.” A enormous majority, 82%, said costs had increased at least “somewhat.” Although the proportion was lower among Republicans at 75%, the trend applied across all respondents’ partisanship.

A clear majority, 71%, said Trump is not focusing enough on domestic issues like reducing health care costs.

That number included 89% of Democrats, 76% of Independents and 66% of Republicans who do not consider themselves supporters of Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. Among MAGA Republicans, 6 in 10 thought Trump was focusing on domestic issues to the right degree.

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