How a handful of states and districts could decide who leads Congress

WASHINGTON – Republicans and Democrats will spend billions of dollars and countless hours campaigning across the country in the run-up to November’s midterm elections, even as control of Congress will likely be decided by a relatively tiny number of campaigns and the voters who actually vote for their preferred candidate.

According to an analysis by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, there are only four Senate races out of 35 and 18 of 435 House districts where each candidate has an equal chance of winning. The rest are classified as tending, probable or solid by one party or the other. Some ratings may still shift in a turbulent election year.

Combined with generally low voter turnout in midterm elections, which has exceeded 50 percent only once in the last century, a particularly narrow majority of Americans could determine whether President Donald Trump and Republicans maintain their triple political control of Washington in the final two years of Trump’s term.

A shift in the Senate from Republican to Democratic control would have far-reaching effects, including on which nominations are confirmed for vacancies in the Trump administration, for federal judgeships and for all Supreme Court vacancies.

A shift from red to blue in the House would likely determine whether Trump and potentially members of his Cabinet face impeachment proceedings in that chamber.

The most likely outcome that experts see at this early stage is that Republicans lose the House and retain the Senate, perhaps with a smaller majority in the upper chamber. However, that could change in the coming months as primary election results determine which candidates emerge in the November general election.

The first primaries are scheduled for March 3rd and will run until September, including 16 in June alone.

Highly publicized efforts by several Republican and Democratic state legislators to redraw the boundaries their seats in the US House of Representatives could also be a variable. So far, however, neither party has gained any real advantage, it is said analysis by Erin Covey, editor of the Cook Political Report for the House of Representatives.

“While it is not clear how many states will have new maps in 2026, we believe the most likely scenario is an electoral victory in which no party gains seats as a result of redistricting,” she wrote.

The stakes in the few competitive general elections will be high and the attention there will be high. Executives from both political parties and outside groups are likely to focus their spending and campaign advertising on the relatively few contests and voters that will determine control of Congress.

Fear of Trump’s impeachment

Trump has repeatedly lamented the historical norm that a president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections, including in January when he addressed House Republicans at the Kennedy Center.

“Whether it’s a Republican or a Democrat, whoever wins the presidency, the other party wins the midterms,” he said. “And it doesn’t make sense because … we had the most successful first year of any president in history.”

Trump also warned that he would face impeachment for a third time if Republicans lost in the House of Representatives. He was impeached twice during his first term.

“You have to win the midterms because if we don’t win the midterms, they’ll just find a reason to impeach me,” he said. “I’m being prosecuted.”

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-La., are confident that GOP candidates will win enough races to ensure they maintain control over which bills are debated and which are excluded from debate.

“I think they’re going to leave it to the adults,” Johnson said during a news conference in early February. “I think Republicans will be able to move forward and expand our majority to continue governing.”

Johnson said during a separate news conference that he believes Americans should have confidence in the results of the midterm elections but pushed for Senate passage a recent, statewide voter ID requirement that House lawmakers recently approved.

“I think we can have confidence in the outcome of the election, but I will tell you there is still great concern that in certain parts of the country the laws are not being strictly enforced,” Johnson said.

It is illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, and anyone found guilty could face fines and up to a year in prison. Accordingly, there are only a few cases in which people who are not eligible to vote actually cast their vote analysis by the Bipartisan Policy Center using data compiled by the Heritage Foundation, a particularly conservative think tank.

The BPC investigation found “only 77 cases in which non-citizens voted between 1999 and 2023” and that “there is no evidence that non-citizen voting was ever significant enough to influence the outcome of an election.”

Democrats are fighting for control

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, both of New York, are as confident as their Republican counterparts that Democrats will regain power, although primaries are a factor.

Jeffries said during a news conference in mid-February that he supports every single Democrat in the House seeking re-election. He called the primaries “a reality” of the country’s political system while also taking a swipe at the Senate.

“Every two years we have to go back to people to argue and convince them to extend our two-year employment contract. It’s just a way of life,” he said. “It must be nice to have a six-year term. But we don’t have the luxury, so in many counties across the country that will mean there will be active primaries.”

Democrats need to secure four more Senate seats to regain control of that chamber, which has particularly long odds given this year’s map.

Cook’s Political Report classified Senate races in Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina are undecided, giving Democrats two possible additions if they can retain the open seat in the Wolverine State and Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia secures re-election.

The open New Hampshire seat is leaning toward staying in the hands of a Democrat, while the seats held by Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan and Ohio Sen. Jon Husted are leaning toward Republicans securing re-election.

Minnesota’s open seat will likely remain blue, the report predicts. The open seats in Iowa and Texas are likely to remain Republican. The rest of the Senate campaigns are rated solid for Democrats or Republicans.

Apart from the 18 seats in the House of Representatives categorized According to Cook, another 14 lean Democratic and four lean Republican. That means only 8% of House races are truly or somewhat competitive, although that will likely fluctuate after primaries decide which candidates advance to the general election.

The GOP holds a very narrow 218-214 majority in the House of Representatives, with three seats vacant, making even some Republican defeats extremely problematic for that party’s leadership team and beneficial for Democrats.

“Even a few seats could make a difference”

Timothy M. Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said during the midterm elections, “The party that doesn’t have control of the White House usually does pretty well, picking up some seats and so on.”

“And given how closely divided the U.S. House and Senate are, even a few seats could make a difference.”

Hagle said people who don’t care about one political party or another, often referred to as independent voters or swing voters, expect candidates to offer solutions to “kitchen table issues” such as jobs, health care and the cost of living.

“You have to go beyond your base if you want to win an election,” he said.

But Hagle pointed out that even as the Internet and social media have become a part of everyday life and candidates have a better chance of having their messages heard directly, it is becoming increasingly arduous for politicians to get people to vote.

Voter turnout Data from the University of Florida Election Lab shows that less than half of eligible voters cast a ballot in midterm elections over the last century, with the exception of 2018, when that share reached a high of 50.1%.

“And one aspect of it that’s a little more modern is that our politics today is so partisan, it’s hyperpartisan, and I think that’s turned off a lot of people,” Hagle said. “And so they really don’t want to get involved in it.”

When coupled with mid-election cycle redistricting in several states and the longer-term decline in contested seats due to gerrymandering, it has led some politicians to change the way they communicate with voters, Hagle said.

“There are certainly attempts by the parties to talk about … things they have achieved,” he said. “The Republicans are in control, so they have to do this. And the Democrats will say, ‘Well, here’s about what we want to do.’ One problem with this is that it is often easier to motivate people through fear.”

“In other words, if a party does a good job, people will say, ‘Okay, good. That’s exactly what you were hired to do. So keep at it.’ Whereas if you say, “Oh, this party, if you give them control or give them control, they will do these terrible things.” That tends to be motivating,” Hagle added. “And that’s one of the reasons you see such toxic messaging.”