Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico addresses his supporters on election night, March 3, 2026, in Austin, Texas. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)
In a crucial battle for control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, the Associated Press declared James Talarico the winner of the Texas Democratic primary early Wednesday, while incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will face off in a runoff in the coming weeks.
The AP named Talarico the winner at 2:37 a.m. over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in a closely watched race that featured candidates with different styles and was seen as an indicator of Democrats’ approach to the midterm elections.
As of overdue Wednesday morning, Talarico was leading Crockett 53% to 45.7% with 91% of the vote counted. But Crockett raised questions Tuesday night about the vote tally in her home district of Dallas County and blamed Republicans for targeting the county a rule change about where voters could cast their votes.
On the Republican side, Cornyn had gained a one percentage point lead over Paxton in the GOP primary as of Wednesday morning, with the AP reporting that he had 41.9% of the vote and Paxton had 40.8%, with 93% of the vote counted.
With U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt receiving about 13.5% of the vote in the Republican primary, neither Cornyn nor Paxton got more than the 50% needed to avoid a May 26 runoff. President Donald Trump has not yet issued an endorsement, something both candidates would welcome.
Not a Democrat since Lloyd Bentsen
Whoever emerges as the Republican nominee will be considered the favorite in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since the overdue Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. To achieve this, Democrats would likely have to win the race every chance to take controll of the Senate, which is now dominated by Republicans with 53 seats and would require Democrats to gain four recent seats statewide.
But a matchup between Paxton and Talarico would likely give Democrats their best chance of winning over independents.
Paxton has drawn comparisons to Trump because of his hardline conservative stance on cultural issues — and his penchant for controversy. Paxton, a favorite of far-right Texas Republicans, was relentlessly attacked in the primary over scandals involving bribery and breach of trust.
Those controversies could turn off more of the moderate voters Talarico courted in the Democratic primary than the grassroots-driven Crockett.
Democrats in Washington praised the result. “James Talarico spent his time in the State House fighting for working families and opposing the corrupt special interests that are making life unaffordable for Texans. This record is exactly what this moment demands – and what neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn can provide,” Lauren French, spokeswoman for Senate Majority PAC, the campaign arm of Senate Democrats, said in a statement.
“Judgment Day is just around the corner”
The GOP primary pitted an establishment figure in Cornyn against a MAGA favorite in Paxton, and the fight was bitter.
The runoff appeared to be equally heated, with Cornyn making a direct appeal to electability, saying Paxton would likely drag down the House vote and calling the attorney general an unworthy standard-bearer.
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to risk everything we have worked so hard to achieve over these many years,” he said. “If he is nominated, there is a high risk that Paxton will lose this Senate seat, thereby losing five congressional seats…Ken Paxton as a nominee would be a dead weight at the top of the ticket.”
Cornyn previewed a no-holds-barred approach to the final 12 weeks of racing.
“Texas Republican primary voters will learn more about my record of conservative victories in the U.S. Senate and learn more about Ken’s indefensible personal behavior and failures in office,” he said. “Doomsday is approaching for Ken Paxton.”
“Change has won”
Paxton countered in his own speech Tuesday night, criticizing Cornyn as insufficiently devoted to Trump and accusing him of supporting a gun safety law after a 2022 school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, that killed 19 people.
Paxton noted that most Republican primary voters voted against the incumbent, despite the record spending that Cornyn and allied groups poured into the race.
“Nearly 60% of Texas voters who have known Cornyn for more than 40 years decided to vote against the incumbent after hearing $100 million in ads,” he said. “This is historic.”
“Change was on the ballot tonight and change won,” he said. “The Texans want new leadership. They want someone with a proven track record of fighting and winning for them, and that’s exactly what I’m going to give them.”
House races in Texas are throwing up some surprises
State lawmakers in Texas redrew the U.S. House maps last year, a infrequent mid-decade redistricting that roiled the districts of some incumbents.
One victim appears to be Rep. Dan Crenshaw, a four-term Republican from the Houston area.
Crenshaw is a reliable conservative who has nevertheless at times found himself on the wrong side of Trump. Crenshaw was the only Republican U.S. House incumbent in Texas whom Trump did not support.
Embattled Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales faces a runoff election against challenger Brandon Herrera, The Associated Press said early Wednesday. Sordid details about Gonzales’ affair with a married staffer who later died by suicide emerged in the final weeks of the race and dogged his campaign.
The House Ethics Committee announced Wednesday morning that its members had voted to create an investigative subcommittee to investigate allegations that Gonzales “committed sexual misconduct against an individual employed in his congressional office” and “unfairly discriminated against by granting special favors or privileges.”
The members of this subcommittee will be announced after their election.
The Ethics Commission, a 10-member panel made up of an equal number of Republicans and Democrats, wrote in the press release announced its investigation into Gonzales and stated that the creation of a subcommittee “does not in itself constitute evidence of a violation.”
A Democratic incumbent-versus-incumbent race in the Houston area also appeared to be heading to a runoff, with Rep. Christian Menefee leading Rep. Al Green 45.9% to 44.4% and 87% of the vote counted as of early Wednesday. The redistricting of the state placed the two members of the House of Representatives in the same district.
North Carolina, Arkansas
Tuesday’s primaries in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas marked the first elections of the interim year.
The race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina features former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former state GOP Chairman Michael Whatley easily earned their party’s nominations.
The race, which like Texas is one of the few considered a real contest, will be crucial in determining which party controls the Senate next year.
In a closely watched race in the U.S. House of RepresentativesIncumbent Democrat Valerie Foushee narrowly edged challenger Nida Allam by a single percentage point, 49.22% to 48.21%.
In Arkansas, Sen. Tom Cotton easily won his primary and will be the massive favorite to face Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer won the Democratic nomination Tuesday.
Jennifer Shutt contributed to this report.
