Polls can be insightful in their entirety; I don’t often point to individual polls unless they’re true outliers. Still, after President Biden’s terrible debate performance last week, polls have been shifting away from Biden and toward Trump, and now Larry Sabato’s nonpartisan polling organization The Center for Politics released another set of swing state polls on Wednesday that support the overall trend. What’s captivating is that they bring Minnesota into the mix, and Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1972. In an article for The Center for Politics, he writes: Kyle Kondik explains it:
We had given Biden the benefit of the doubt in Michigan, rating it as “mostly Democratic,” even though polls there have been tight for months. But we can’t justify giving Biden a lead there now, even though we still expect it to be the bluest part of the “Blue Wall” trio (the group of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). With Michigan considered undecided, it also makes sense to downgrade Minnesota from “likely Democratic” to “mostly Democratic.” Driven by Democratic growth in the Twin Cities and their suburbs, which mostly balanced Minnesota trends Republican in remote areas and is the second bluest state in the Midwest, with only Illinois being better. But Trump almost won Minnesota in 2016, and it’s only one shade bluer, not two shades bluer, than Michigan (which is why it should only trend Democrat in our ratings if Michigan is a tie). Just to be clear, Biden has no plausible chance of winning the White House without Michigan (and Minnesota, of course).
The benefit of the doubt can no longer be given easily. The Biden campaign appears to be in free fall. The poll numbers only seem to be getting worse for Team Biden; they were bad before, and after the abysmal debate performance, Democrats and the Biden administration can no longer keep Joe Biden’s deterioration under control. This downward trend in the polls was already a trend before the debate, and it now appears to be accelerating.
See also: NEW: Trump maintains lead over Biden in swing states as we approach first debate
Trump campaign expands field with modern offices in Minnesota and Virginia
This report, to be precise—and I reiterate my caveat that individual polls and estimates should only be considered in the context of overall trends—makes two essential changes to the Electoral College. Michigan, a state that Donald Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020, has been moved from “Less likely Democratic” to “Decide.” Minnesota, which Trump lost in both elections and which last went to a Republican presidential candidate in 1972, has been moved from “Likely Democratic” to “Less likely Democratic.”
The RealClearPolitics Averages for Michigan Trump is ahead of Biden by 1.2 percent. This average is based on five polls that began in early May.
The recent polls in Minnesota, also documented by RealClearPoliticsTrump and Biden are tied in a head-to-head comparison, and Trump leads by one point in a Trump/Biden/Kennedy/Stein/West comparison.
None of this looks good for Team Biden. The Trump people have opened a campaign office in Minnesota, and even if they have little chance of winning the land of 10,000 lakes, they will manage to put the Biden campaign in a position where they can supposedly defend solid Democratic territory.
It’s never good to be in a position where the enemy is attacking you for reasons of their choosing. It’s even worse when the enemy is forcing you to defend their territory – and that’s exactly the situation Biden’s campaign is in right now. After the debate, things are only going to get worse.
Stay tuned. It will definitely get more captivating.
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