The signs for Biden’s campaign are getting worse after his debate disaster last Thursday. In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll published WednesdayFormer President Donald Trump’s lead over Biden has grown:
Trump’s lead grows by 3 percentage points in NYT/Siena poll https://t.co/S8EdazqLvy
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) July 3, 2024
Among likely voters nationally, Trump now leads Biden 49 percent to 43 percent, a three-point lead from just a week before the debate. It’s the largest lead Trump has recorded in a Times/Siena poll since 2015. Among registered voters, Trump is even higher, 49 percent to 41 percent.
We’ve already published the results of some of the polls taken after the debate. My colleague Ward Clark broke them down like this in an analysis of polls averaged by Real Clear Politics and others from last Friday through Sunday:
Read more:
Polls after the debate should make Biden’s campaign team sweat
Leaked internal polls also brought some bad news for the election campaign:
Read more:
Brutal leaked internal poll results on Biden show how much the debate has damaged him
But this latest NYT Siena insight further suggests that the manipulations that the somewhat united Democratic front is serving up to Americans are failing to convince potential voters, as “concerns that Mr. Biden is too old to govern effectively reached new heights among Democrats and independent voters”: (emphasis mine)
Doubts about Mr Biden’s age and judgment are widespread and growing. A majority every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll – including black voters and those who said they would still vote for him – think Mr Biden, 81, is too ancient be effective.
In total, 74 percent of voters think he is too ancient for the job, increased by five percentage points since the debateConcerns about Mr Biden’s age rose by eight percentage points among the Democrats in the week since the debate to 59 percent. The share of independent voters who said they felt so rose to 79 percentwhich is almost the same as the Republicans’ view of the president.
There were some isolated positive aspects for Biden – but one of them is more of a double-edged sword for the future of his campaign:
One was that he Trump’s lead among independent voters narrowedalthough this gain was more than offset by its Erosion among the Democrats and the improvement of Mr. Trump among the Republicans. Another reason was that the Share of Democratic voters who think, Mr. Biden should no longer be the candidate who was selectedbut far less than the growing concern among Democrats about his age.
Here’s the part with the mixed feelings:
In total, more voters thought Biden should remain the Democratic candidate — but only because more Republicansperhaps encouraged by the debate, said they wanted him as an opponent.
The full results can be found Here. And as always, we will keep you updated on developments.
