Two weeks have passed since the debate between President Biden and former President Trump in Atlanta on June 27, which rocked the political world.
Biden’s disastrous performance in this conflict led to calls on him to drop out of the raceSpeculation about who might replace him and Democrats’ fears that their convention in Chicago in August could be cluttered.
After two weeks, we now know more about what the polls say. Here are the five most crucial findings.
Trump’s miniature lead has grown
The bottom line is that Trump is now more likely to win the November election.
The difference isn’t monumental, perhaps because the country as a whole is so polarized that massive swings in opinion are extremely sporadic. But the shift is significant, especially in a race that everyone expected to be close.
In the national PaAverage According to data released by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump was ahead by just 0.4 percentage points on the eve of the debate. He is now ahead by 1.3 points.
Similar patterns can be seen in other survey averages. RealClearPolitics (RCP) AverageFor example, Trump’s lead has more than doubled, from 1.5 percentage points on June 27 to 3.3 points now.
These are certainly modest advantages.
But we should not forget two factors that are increasing the Democrats’ dejection and the Republicans’ gloating.
First, polls during Trump’s two previous presidential campaigns have tended to underestimate his support. Second, the vagaries of the Electoral College mean that Biden will likely have to win a majority of the vote convincingly. In 2020, he defeated Trump by more than 4 percentage points in the majority vote, but won key states in the Electoral College by extremely narrow margins.
The development on the battlefield is rather mixed – but Trump is ahead here too
The election will ultimately be decided by about half a dozen states.
For Biden’s supporters, there is at least some consolation in terms of developments since the debate. But overall, Trump is clearly ahead.
The most hotly contested areas are likely to be Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Surprisingly, since the debate, polls have shifted in Biden’s favor – albeit only slightly – in three of the six states, according to the DDHQ average. But Trump is ahead in five of the six states overall.
Trump’s lead has shrunk in Arizona and Georgia, and in Michigan Biden now has a petite lead of less than half a percentage point.
However, Trump was able to roughly double his lead in Nevada and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the largest swing state.
Meanwhile, polls have shown that three states previously considered challenging for Trump could now be in the race: New Hampshire, Minnesota and Virginia.
The non-partisan Cook Political Report six states moved toward Trump in novel ratings released Tuesday. The change included reclassifying Minnesota and New Hampshire as “mostly Democratic” instead of “likely Democratic.”
Doubts about Biden run deep
Even before the debate, we knew that the 2024 election would feature two candidates who would not provoke widespread opposition among vast sections of the public.
The depth of these doubts is demonstrated by the polls conducted after the debate, which focused on reactions to Biden’s aimless performance.
A (*5*)Economist/YouGov survey The poll, released Wednesday, found that a majority of Americans (56 percent) believe Biden should either “definitely” or “probably” step down as the Democratic nominee. Even more notably, 42 percent of Democrats hold this view.
The same poll found that 61 percent of Americans believe Biden’s health and age would “severely limit” his ability to serve in office if he is re-elected for a second term.
According to a CNN/SSRS poll shortly after the debate, 75 percent of voters believed the Democrats would have a better chance with another candidate.
A July 3 Wall Street Journal poll found that 80 percent of voters think Biden is too ancient to run.
Theoretically, it is possible to surpass these numbers, especially given that Trump’s political history spans his words and actions around January 6, 2021, and his more recent Convictions for capital crimes in New York.
Still, concerns about age make Biden’s rise extremely steep.
Historical parallels give Democrats food for thought
Some Democrats are sounding the fire alarm about Biden, in part because they notice how poorly he is performing compared to the last presidential election.
Senator Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) expressed this in an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Tuesday, when he said he no longer believes in a Biden victory.
For example, Trump’s three-point lead in the current national RCP average is all the larger because the former president never led that average in the 2020 election cycle.
Four years ago, Biden was 9 points ahead of Trump.
In 2016, Trump was only very slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton.
At this point in the 2016 election cycle, Clinton was ahead by 4.5 points in the RCP average. In the end, Clinton outpolled Trump by 2.1 points in the majority vote—and, of course, lost the election.
In 2012, then-President Obama, except for a behind schedule slip-up following his own indigent performance in the debate, generally led Republican candidate Mitt Romney.
Against the backdrop of these comparisons, Biden’s position appears particularly shaky.
Two major polls could distort the perception of Trump’s lead
The Biden team’s argument since the debate in Atlanta has been that the fundamentals of the race have not changed.
That’s not entirely true, as you can see above. But Biden hasn’t experienced a complete collapse either.
In fact, the president may have suffered in terms of perception because two of his worst poll numbers came from major media outlets that can set the news agenda: the New York Times and CNN.
Some polls commissioned by these organizations shortly after the debate each showed a lead of six percentage points for Trump.
They overshadowed the polls of other renowned opinion research institutes, which showed a much closer competition.
A YouGov/CBS News poll showed Trump ahead by just two percentage points, while an Ipsos/Reuters poll showed a neck-and-neck race.
Certainly the overall picture for the Democrats is extremely bleak.
But it is not yet certain whether Trump will win the race.
